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The coming days and weeks will see Trump lower himself in the acid bath of what analysts call the ‘escalation trap’. Many analysts comment that he has already fallen on his sword in the Iran war, as his fantasy of bringing Tehran to its knees – served up by Israel’s PM Netanyahu – has proved to be the greatest deception in U.S.-Israeli relations since the birth of the entity in 1948. He has, to many, lost the war, which was really the essence of him signing the MOU on June 17th, agreeing in principle to all of the points of unconditional surrender, making Iran a bigger, bolder regional power which now controls the Straits of Hormuz and is revered by the GCC elites like never before.
Yet his own lack of diplomatic verve both with Western leaders, NATO and above all Benjamin Netanyahu made his signature worthless, and his only recourse was to continue the war, to at least make it look like he is still relevant.
But this gambit, which is foolish on so many levels – not least of all because the U.S. is very low on military hardware used up between February 28th and April 7th – is more reckless than he understands and will soon destroy him.
Just recently, GCC countries’ elites frantically called him to tell him to stop bombing Iran’s civilian infrastructure, as, unbeknown to him, the capability of Iran to completely wipe off the surface of the map the same infrastructure in the Gulf countries is within arms’ reach. It is one thing to have your U.S. air base bombed, but quite another for your schools, hospitals, bridges, power plants and water facilities to be blown up with a handful of hypersonic missiles. And it is hard to imagine how those elites would rebuild their countries if Iran chose to retaliate in such a fashion.
The call seems to have done the job. But Trump is a mercurial man-child who understands little and only cares about nursing his ego, and so there is no telling what he might do in the future if pushed, or if he simply fails to take the warning seriously.
And yet, whichever route he chooses, it all ends badly for him, and the Iranians are taking the time to remove entirely the U.S. presence in the region. If Trump persists in hitting their infrastructure, one move which Iran is mulling is destroying the oil shipments presently coming out of the UAE and Saudi Arabia outside of the Persian Gulf – in other words, oil which the Saudis send via pipeline to the Red Sea and oil which is sent to Fujairah port, currently being expanded. The 7 million barrels of oil each day which together these two countries export could easily be stopped by Iran, and so it is hard to see what strategy Trump thinks he has with his bombing, other than he believes that this will soften the Iranians up for coming back to the MOU.
What Trump doesn’t understand is that the hardliners in the Iranian government never believed he was serious about the MOU and saw it as a ruse to buy time before continuing with a bombing campaign. Now that they have been proved right, any return to an MOU will be much harder on Trump, as the demands from Tehran will be higher than the first time around.
Top of that list will be Lebanon, and this is where Trump’s problems start, as the position that he will be in if an MOU 2.0 is put together will be very weak, while Netanyahu’s will be very strong. Bibi is never going to pull IDF troops out of Lebanon, and so a peace deal will be impossible, leading Trump to only one recourse: the mother of all maddest ideas, which is the land invasion of Iran – which he might be thinking about around November when the weather is cooler. But the U.S. doesn’t have either the number of men required, the stockpile of weapons, or even, frankly, the competence to carry out such a remarkably risky venture. The casualties would be incredibly high, and Trump would go down in history as the egghead U.S. president who fell into Israel’s trap and got the ultimate lesson from Iran. The humiliation Jimmy Carter had to endure after a failed rescue mission of U.S. embassy workers in Iran in 1980 will pale into insignificance in comparison to what the Iranians have lined up for Trump.
Trump’s problem is credibility. No world leaders respect him nor trust him, and this is a major factor now with the Iranians, who simply consider Trump to be a clown at best or a dangerous, insecure child at worst – ready to burn the family house down just to get the attention that he craves. Nothing he says is taken seriously, as Tehran knows all along that Trump is always creating distractions while he is listening to his generals’ latest crackpot ideas about invasion. While Trump panics, Iran moves at a painfully slow, measured pace – confident about itself, its history and its destiny. Iran thinks long term and about how the world will judge it, also keeping in mind negotiating with the next U.S. administration. As an ancient civilisation, they are used to thinking in terms of decades and centuries. Trump only thinks about this week’s coverage in the Wall Street Journal or New York Times. His gate-crashing of the World Cup and having the president of FIFA actually manhandle him out of the Spanish team’s photo shoot must have been very embarrassing for many Americans.
