Key to a deal being had is if Trump can make a concrete gesture. But will he?
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The Iranians, according to Marco Rubio, are making unrealistic demands. But key to a deal being had is if Trump can make a concrete gesture. But will he?
Oil prices suddenly tumble down to $93 USD a barrel for Brent Crude, and everyone repeats the mantra: “Here we go again… Trump’s got the Iranians to agree to new talks.” Of course, each time this happens, Trump and his family profit enormously. But this time around, there seems to be more seriousness from the U.S. president than previously, as many U.S. analysts are pointing out. Trump could benefit now more than before by getting a deal from the war which Obama has described as “over nuclear weapons that the Iranians don’t have and opening the straits which were closed before”. However, the big guns in media in the U.S. put great emphasis on Trump’s recent comments in an interview where he says it’s “very unlikely” that the U.S. will launch another attack on Iran.
Trump went even further after meeting Qatar’s prime minister, saying he does not believe that additional military action against Iran is necessary for the moment. “At this point, it won’t be necessary, taking the military action,” Trump said during a surprise appearance in the White House briefing room.
But Trump had to underline the point that the military option remains available if the deal couldn’t move forward and there was no progress. “Should there be any change with respect to developments in the Middle East, the United States of America is fully locked and loaded,” he said. “We don’t think there’ll be any reason to use it,” he added.
So what’s he up to? Recently, before the midterms, he spoke a lot about bombing Iran after the polls were over. He sent an aircraft carrier there and has, just recently, appointed new people around him who are pro-war. Is this latest hiatus from all the chest-beating just another ruse to fool the Iranians, hoping they will drop their guard? Certainly the hardliners will be thinking this, especially given that he organised publicity for a reward leading to information as to the whereabouts of nuclear weapons in Iran, which is as comical a resort as it is desperate. Certainly it is true that his style of negotiating is to bring all the weapons and armoury with him to the table – true Middle East style, it could be noted – and to add to that all the threats. This is how he operates.
But is he serious about a deal? If we are to believe the pundits in the U.S., it would seem he is, as there are benefits now to reducing gas prices and restoring some credibility from his own base, if not party. Trump may be deluded about the real reasons he got hit so hard in the midterms, but he has at least acknowledged that it was the Iran war which was a decisive factor for most voters. Doing something about the war – like getting the straits re-opened and securing a ceasefire – would not only restore confidence in him back home but also in the region, where most analysts say the U.S. cannot return to at any point. Things are so bad and so much has been lost by Trump that he has to get a ceasefire in place in order to then beg the Saudis to reinstate the U.S. as its protector, even in name only. Saudi Arabia, out of all of the GCC countries, needs a deal badly, as its economy is running on empty and it is unsure how far it can go without a revolt within the royal family which might see MbS overthrown. Trump abandoned his second strongest ally in the region, and throwing MbS under a bus by not offering any military assistance whatsoever against the Houthis was noted by all regional leaders as a new milestone of failed U.S. hegemony.
The talks, though, have never been harder, largely due to a total lack of trust the Iranians have in Trump. In February of this year, during talks over a nuclear deal, Trump launched massive attacks on Iran, and it is for this that he has lost all their trust – and so now gestures based on words and promises mean little. The Iranians now not only have more demands, but they also need to see a solid gesture from the Americans before moving forward with anything, even symbolically. They are asking for $300bn USD compensation from the war (impossible for Trump to get from Congress), all frozen assets around the world totalling $100bn USD to be handed over, all sanctions lifted, removal of the blockade, and compensation for the assassination of their own supreme leader. It’s quite a lot to demand, given that, on paper at least, they have insisted that nuclear development is a sovereign issue and therefore not negotiable. Insiders have revealed, however, that this might not be the case when it comes down to brass tacks. Iran also would like to see the straits opened and be able to sell all of its oil on the open market. It has responsibilities also in the region and has to also consider the losses that its allies Hezbollah and the Houthis have suffered. It’s hard to see how any progress can be made when, firstly, they are in such a stronger position than the U.S. and Israel; secondly, they are most certainly the victors of the war; and thirdly, it is impossible to take Trump seriously. What is needed is a grand gesture by Trump to at least cool their hardliners’ scepticism. What might be an option for Trump would be to give the green light to all the countries’ central banks in the world who are respecting U.S. secondary sanctions by holding $100bn USD of Iran’s money. This would be no skin off Trump’s nose, and he would certainly get some political capital out of it if the Saudis could rebuild their oil infrastructure and use the straits to get it out to the markets, while helping the other GCC countries as well. But Trump is absurdly deluded and still thinks he has the upper hand in negotiations. Time is running out for him, though, and the Iranians know it. After January, he may not be in any position at all to go ahead with any military action, even the blockade.
