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Is Trump and Netanyahu planning a summer war in Iran? At first glance, this would seem like an idea which places them both as far away from lucid reality as is possible, an idea cooked up in cloud cuckoo land. Madness, some might say. Although there would seem to be a tradition in the region for having wars in the summer, experts would argue this would be an enormous challenge for U.S. forces, as the heat is too impractical and too repressive in the region for most soldiers in the field, not to mention the sand storms. But given the standoff at the moment whereby the recent so-called Iran war has produced nothing that can vaguely be interpreted as a ’win’ for either leader, it’s worth speculating whether this is Trump’s latest strategy — to pull off a small invasion of an island in the Persian Gulf so that both men can declare a victory to their electorates, something perhaps even more pressing for Trump as he heads towards midterm elections where he hopes Republican candidates will keep the majority in both houses.

The reality of this plan becoming real grows each day, as contrary to what Trump tells reporters — that he has years to continue the blockade — in reality he has only a matter of a couple of months before things start to heat up for him back home. The economy in America is in recession, and it is all down to Trump’s man-child, oversimplified policies of managing the economy which is causing a global meltdown that has impacted the lives of ordinary Americans. It’s hard to imagine how Trump will campaign in the weeks leading up to the critical vote — which might see Democrats running both houses, which guarantees that he is impeached — when almost every election promise he made has been broken and the economy is failing. How will he explain to his MAGA base that it’s all the fault of someone else that gasoline is $4 a gallon? We don’t know, but we can imagine that he will certainly have a blame strategy ready, and Rubio and Vance may well have to be sacrificed just to facilitate such a plan.

But a war in the Middle East which makes America look like a superpower as it was 30 to 40 years ago might also do the trick, or at least this is what Trump might be thinking. If only America had an Iranian island on which they could drop 10,000 U.S. troops and call their own. This is the kind of childlike way of thinking that Trump must be indulging himself with when he realises in the coming weeks that Tehran can turn off its oil production completely and play the waiting game itself, with the impact in the short term being that the pressure on global economies to diversify their fossil fuel dependencies away from crude oil intensifies.

Of course, Iran reducing its output will hurt its economy and its people will suffer, but the payback will be worth it if Trump loses badly in the midterms. Iran has time on its side; Trump doesn’t.

And this partly explains Iran’s strategy to not escalate the war. Many in the region are frustrated that Iran doesn’t sink one of America’s ships which are part of the blockade, but Iran has constantly played a non-aggressive role in the war from day one, always looking to de-escalate rather than escalate. Iran has always been smart, measured and in control, whereas Israel and the U.S. have been hysterical, panicky and lacking any strategy or vision.

Is there a centre ground for Iran and the U.S./Israel so that the crisis could be cooled and all parties can claim a victory? The toughest nut to crack is how to sell any such victory, even a faked one with a cleverly crafted PR campaign that comes with it, to either Trump or Netanyahu. For Trump, it is imperative that after the egregious losses that America has sustained — petrodollar dominance ditched, higher gas prices, hegemony in the region lost, not to mention well over 400 U.S. soldiers dead — he comes up with a deal that looks at first sight better than Obama’s in 2015. This is particularly hard given that the brown stuff that Trump is in now comes as a direct consequence of him tearing up the JCPOA deal in 2018 — a deal which the Iranians respected and which would not have allowed them to refine the amount of uranium they currently have. Talk about shooting yourself in both feet. But the real stupidity which will haunt Trump and his family for decades to come is that Iran was pushed over a line which it now sees very little point in returning to — given that the Iran war has enlightened the Iranians to so many useful military advantages which, until now, were just estimations on paper. They have learnt so much and improved their defensive capability quite dramatically as a direct consequence of being attacked that they now are much less inclined to concede anything.

Before February 28th, the Iranians were quite prepared to give up all uranium enrichment, and an offer was made to Trump’s negotiators Witkoff and Kushner — but the offer merely demonstrated how disingenuous those talks were, as in reality they were a ruse to fool Iran. The offer from Iran merely pushed America to go ahead with a strike earlier than they had probably planned for, but nonetheless the Iranians now know that the weakest link in any negotiations is Trump. The only thing you can be sure of is his likelihood to not keep his side of the bargain, or in the case of Netanyahu, his certainty in breaking a ceasefire. The real crux of their problem is that they have no capital whatsoever to play with, as Iran simply cannot take their word for anything. Their track record of lying and double-dealing casts a shadow over everything.

All eyes now are on Putin and the role Russia can now play, and whether it wants to save Trump. Russia and China have always liked Trump in the White House, largely for his ineptitude and weakness more than anything else. Top of the list which makes him their ideal candidate to be U.S. president is his stunning inability to unite the EU with the U.S., and so there is some solid ground there to work with. What they should be worrying about now is Trump’s one-way street which he is stuck on, which leads him to only one destination whether he likes it or not: forever war. If Trump is even toying with the idea of a summer war, Putin could act now and steer him away from it, but Trump will have to cut him some slack in Ukraine, as the war there is just about to shift gear where Russian soldiers are humming a Beatles song. Here comes the sun, little darling. Here comes the sun, oh yeah, it’s alright.