The problem for Zelensky is the crisis of confidence in his narrative now, as he is the only one who believes a victory for Ukraine is possible.
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The decision by Congress to block Biden’s 50 billion dollar request for aid to Ukraine is a pivotal moment both in his first term as president and in Zelensky’s. Are both men looking at being ejected from office over the shocking racket, otherwise known as the Ukraine war? Experts like George Szamuely argue that the temporary cessation of crazy spending will resume itself in January once Republican Senators get their way over border security, but even so, what is believed to be a once-and-for-all aid deal in the coming weeks doesn’t bode well for Biden, Zelensky or the West’s position in Ukraine. When the Ukrainian president had to fly back to Kiev with only a token 200m dollar cheque in his top pocket, many pundits, even in the West, speculated that America’s days as chief financier were over; some even went further and argued that Zelensky is now a dead man walking and that hopes for him to cling on to power were no longer realistic.
The problem for Zelensky is the crisis of confidence in his narrative now, as he is the only one who believes a victory for Ukraine is possible. Even his commander in chief, Valery Zaluzhny, is openly sceptical now of winning at all, on any level and talks despondently about the war. Zaluzhny is openly critical of Zelensky which, in itself, is a bad sign for Ukrainians who note that it was Zelensky who gave him the job in the first place. But if your commander-in-chief doesn’t believe in the project anymore, then what are the chances of the men fighting for you will step up to the mark?
Wars are won on full stomachs but also on belief in leaders. If confidence is waning at the top, there is no hope whatsoever of any victory as the war is lost before even one bullet is discharged. The looks on the faces of the 55-year old latest army conscripts who were treated to a Marilyn Monroe type performance by a voluptuous singer recently – doing the rounds on social media – spoke volumes. They looked cynical, troubled and even scared.
It is an oversimplified argument to present that Zelensky is the problem and that if he were to stand down, a new leader might create the environment for a peace settlement of some sort. But it is actually correct. For Biden it’s a no-brainer. Zelensky is really blocking the way for a solution so he can keep face in the U.S. when he starts campaigning. Awkwardly, this will start more or less in June when NATO will have its 75th birthday. Biden’s people might be fretting now as to how to fake the entire event and present NATO as a winner. But even Houdini couldn’t get out of this conundrum if Ukraine is still stuck with Zelensky and his fantasy of a victory over Russia. Given the delays in stocking the Ukrainian army, the radical reduction in actual cash and kit being sent from the U.S. and European arms manufacturers scrambling to make fast cash in Israel – like Germany – it’s hard to imagine how he can keep up a political patina of confidence as a leader when Ukrainians are suffering and worry that the worst is yet to come.
Ukraine’s air defences are almost depleted. Its army is dysfunctional at best and the signs of desperation are becoming more obvious each day to Ukrainians who see young men being forcefully arrested and taken from hospitals and old men being rounded up. Even women, some pregnant, have found themselves the victims of these press gangs who have put them in uniform and sent them to the battle. There’s no cash, no ammo and no will. It’s an abysmal state of apathy, defeat and delusional thinking. And no one is more delusional than Zelensky himself. Even after returning to the Ukraine from Washington he is still talking a good talk about how Ukraine can defeat Russia, adding that all he needs is 100 billion dollars more and 500,000 men.
The truth is that even if he had this, time is all it would buy him. And this is really the issue now with his presidency. The racket of taking cash and military equipment from the West and selling it on the black market, exposed in great depth by my recent investigation, is running out. One of the reasons – from many – why Zelensky dreams of winning in Ukraine are so out of touch with reality is that probably only about 30% of all NATO kit is making it to the battlefield. Zelensky allows his cabal of ministers and senior military officials to enrich themselves with this scam so that they all can siphon off scores of millions of dollars each month while they are paid a laughable 3,000 USD a month salary. Zelensky himself is probably part of this racket but this business is really about his survival. To keep all those ministers and military figures on his side and protect him, he has to allow them to take their cut.
The problem now he has, is that it’s only a matter of time before this group realises that the only way they can continue to milk the system for their own gains is to look at a different business model. If Zelensky is lucky, some of them will simply leave the county and enjoy the money they’ve stashed. But greed is a factor here. Many will prefer to stay and see how to adjust their activities to a new set up.
That new set up is obvious. It is a formal or informal armistice with Russia where the EU moves in with the reconstruction cash, probably several hundred billion dollars, which is then redirected to their own coffers. Ukrainian politicians have been doing this for decades and so they will hit the ground running when that moment comes, with fake NGOs and all the various construction companies already in place and part of their murky complot. And so even for Zelensky’s own people, he will be seen as part of the problem and not the solution as he carries on with this “we can win…really we can” narrative. The options aren’t good. Even if a second tranche of say 20bn dollars, as a last package, is agreed by Congress, it is likely that most of this military equipment will be sent to Libya and sold by the scramble of those who see the end coming and want their last cut to the biggest before the abyss comes.
Rumours in the U.S. that he has already got an agreement in place with the U.S. for citizenship and protection in Florida may well be true as when the moment comes he will need to flee very quickly as the last thing Biden wants is for the Russians to capture him and get him to sign a treaty. In the meantime, Biden has other problems troubling his dwindling brain. He has bought into the idea of taking on the Houthis in the Red Sea will be a quick fix solution to his problems in Gaza, as even humble blue colour workers in the U.S. begin to understand that the U.S. is backing a genocide, along with international and U.S. media, a number of key U.S. allies around the world. And Hollywood. Sleepy Joe thought that CNN footage of some Houthi military hardware being blown out of the sky would be just the ticket for a good distraction and a way of scoring points with hawks on both sides of the house who need their Iran fix every now and again. Of course, as a dim-witted Sky News ‘expert’ in the UK recently pointed out, this would mean starting a war with Iran. The delusional thinking is terrifying, given how vulnerable U.S. forces are in the region. But the rank stupidity takes your breath away. Pity dumb Americans. All they have is money. The race is on between Biden’s full on dementia setting in and an American aircraft carrier being sunk in these treacherous waters.
