Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su

Are we witnessing the final days of caretaker President Zelensky? Two recent media events where he clearly stated, some would even say ‘begged’, for a deal with Donald Trump might indicate that he is now in panic mode. Zelensky’s recent offer to Trump for the U.S. to take Ukraine’s mineral reserves reveals a lot about the former comedian turned politician. In numerous speeches and various media events he has repeatedly talkedч about the Ukrainian people, Europe and the sanctity of democracy all being under threat when Russia wins the war. But now we can see all that was BS and that now, without Hollywood movie stars raising his profile of hundreds of media outlets pumping out the fake news to support him, we get to what really matters above all: mineral wealth.

The problem or dilemma Zelensky has is not unlike that of a dying old man who has millions in the bank. Does he hand over all his wealth to the best doctors to buy a few more years of life, based on their promises, or does he accept the end is near? His logic is not complicated. His chief focus is his own power and positon above all. But is a peace deal, with or without a mineral sweetner compatible with his presidential incumbency? Something, it would seem, has to give.

What he is now doing is certainly panicking. There can be no other way to look at the recent media spots. With practically now all U.S. and UK media taking the line that the war is being lost now to Russia and further reports that Moscow could be planning a major push with one or two brigades, time is of the essence. He needs to think clearly. Perhaps delusional western powers like the UK are preventing any lucid, realistic thinking, given that David Lammy, the British foreign secretary recently visited him and handed him a cheque for over 60 million USD and told him that Britain is prepared to replace the U.S. militarily. Yes, that’s 60, you read correctly. While it’s unclear what an army in defeat could do with this small change, given that U.S. experts are estimating that just for the Ukraine army to continue for one more year they would need between 50 and 100 BILLION dollars, the British should thank Zelensky for keeping a straight face at the farce.

Zelensky’s problem is how to secure a peace deal and come out looking like a winner. Add to that almost mission impossible is his insistence on “western security” guaranties – read NATO membership – and you can see why things are not exactly moving forward very quickly.

Trump has announced a peace deal to be agreed in April. Like the 600-pound gorilla in the room, he is likely to make it happen, or at least a ceasefire of sorts, but will Zelensky still be president when it happens? Zelensky is rapidly realizing the trap and just how entangled he is in the centre of it. Give Trump a huge bribe? It might not cut it given that Trump must already be looking at who to replace Zelensky, who would probably offer more. Both Trump and Zelensky need to come out of it as victors and it was interesting how he used the word “victory” when explaining it to the Reuters journalists (do they actually ask questions or is it just their job to be his PR apparatus?). Yet the question of Putin being a victor has not been tackled, given that he’s already winning and holds all the cards. While it is true that the intensity of fighting is certainly the case on the Russian side, it is quite wrong of both Lammy and Zelensky who claim Putin doesn’t want to talk. This is coded talk which means simply “he’s not prepared to give us what we want”.

It’s unlikely Zelensky will be the broker to make the deal happen as we head towards Trump’s 100-day deadline and I predict, as I have been doing so for months, that both Putin and Trump will conclude that he needs to be removed for a deal to be made. NATO membership of Ukraine is a joke and cannot happen for any deal to be struck and it is telling that the West still clings to this fantasy, but explains why Zelensky is still harping on about it. At the time of writing Trump hinted to journalists that he was about to meet with Zelensky so we should estimate that this will be the ‘either piss or get off the pot’ moment where all diplomatic endearment will be put aside. Trump will tell him the plan and tell him there and then, you’re either with it or you’re out. As easily as the Obama and Biden administrations ushered Zelensky and his predecessor into power, Trump will prove that he can counter the move. Watch very closely in the coming weeks for top aides of Zelensky to be fired, but who in reality have resigned. Trump’s specialty for years in NYC getting deals done was to threaten his competitors with seducing their wives. Many gave into this tactic. Almost certainly Trump’s people will be working on Zelensky’s entourage who might wipe him out financially with higher payoffs – if he chooses to stay. But will he stay?