Does Trump have the slightest idea of what a war with Iran actually means in practical terms? Does he understand that removing Maduro has galvanised support for Iran when that war starts?
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With the huge movement of US military aircraft first arriving in US bases in the UK before moving onto the Middle East, the rioting in Iran and Trump’s euphoria over Venezuela, it would be a fair assumption to make that the US, along with Israel, is planning an Iranian attack aimed at toppling the regime. Trump’s recent comments to the New York Times about power only being restrained by “his own morality” should worry both China and Russia as it appears that Trump is beginning to lose a sense of any reality and is punch drunk on power.
The Venezuela coup, we now know, was no great military victory by US force as the extremely limited number of special forces and helicopters involved proved that it was, if anything, an internal power struggle to oust Maduro. The interesting take away from it all is that it is not regime change but more of a political vacuum now that Trump has created, following years of promises made to the directors of US oil firms to effectively steal US heavy crude oil from the country to give a new lease of life to the previously under used American refineries which were built expressly for Venezuela’s specific type of crude.
But whether it is a great victory for US hegemony or not, the Venezuela stunt must have gone to Trump’s head to make the kind of comments to the NYT which we would normally associate with tyrants who surface from bloody coups in West African states. Most Americans who follow politics have no illusions about the constitution being nothing more than a useless folly which can’t hold Trump to account making Congress an even more inept bystander to his madness – which evidently is increasing, gathering pace each day on the foreign policy circuit.
What we are witnessing is the counter reaction to failed domestic policies, linked to the silver bullet of hiked tariffs failing, to supposedly distract many MAGA supporters away from the salient reality of the day: America’s economy is failing and heading towards a recession.
The recession hasn’t yet come, despite a phalanx of left wing commentators and their sepulchral moaning that it would have been here by now. Yet what has arrived and is clear to see is that while Trump’s tariffs didn’t bring about any kind of surge in manufacturing and the blue collar jobs which were expected, it has raised consumer prices, mortgage rates and lead to more jobs being shed. The real hike in consumer goods, respected economists like Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel point out will come in 2026 when importers can no longer absorb the costs of the tariffs and will inevitably be forced to raise prices across the board. This year is going to be terrible for Trump as the economy is going to slide as he approaches the mid terms, where, some argue, he may lose both houses.
Foreign policy and what US commentators like to euphemistically like to call “intervention” (translation: “over throwing regimes we don’t like who don’t sign up to our hegemony”) is going to be Trump’s lifeline, he thinks. What is odd though is the Iran plan. While Trump has proved that he can’t help himself with very minor dabbling of military intervention – Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, Somalia and Yemen – which already has clocked up well over 600 airstrikes, analysts always pointed out that he was not a US president that had the stomach for real wars which would lead to US casualties. And yet those same analysts are pointing to what is now looking inevitably like a second, follow up strike on Iran, with the objective being the same as the first one in June of last year: to topple the regime and install a puppet of the west making Iran a vassal state. The new leader the CIA have been giving a script each week to read for social media video clips is of course Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed Shah who fled Iran in 1979.
While it’s true that some of the protestors have shown support for him, Pahlavi doesn’t have broad support though and is not a leader who has, to date, impressed Trump. If he is to be installed, if the Mossad plan of over-throwing the present regime is successful, it seems that the plan is to use Pahlavi as a transitional leader before they can install a preferred candidate.
For now, the CIA uses him as a voice to the protestors, how to go about their strategies. But the main surge of their activity has since died down after a massive crack down on arresting ring leaders and those paid by Israel to stir up the protests (Afghans and Indians living in Iran). If the US and Israel are planning a second strike soon, certainly they will want to do it during a massive demonstration which some armchair analysts in the west claimed put well over a million people on the streets in Tehran.
The truth though is that nearly all what we are seeing with video footage of demonstrations and destruction is manufactured by Mossad. Western pundits who circulate the material haven’t paused to think about how, during a total internet blackout, is there such an abundance of reporting of the activity. One video clip of what looked like government buildings being burnt was, probably riots in LA or Paris (even X has discredited it). In reality, Iranians are not calling for a revolution, rather for a reset of rules and governance after years of sanctions have just made their lives harder as the economy continues to dive with no real reset in site.
What we can assume is about to happen very soon is a series of more intense air strikes by both Israel and US air forces as Trump factors that without boots on the ground that his political liability is limited. But this is a massive miscalculation and one which no doubt Netanyahu has fooled Trump into thinking as this time around, there is every possibility that Iran will carry out a pre-emptive strike on Israel or US soldiers in the region. Even if such a strike isn’t pulled off, the previous strategy of Iran to restrain its attacks on Israel and its military will not be repeated. Iran is ready now to take the gloves off and the protests which are crafted by Mossad and CIA will only harden this strategy as it is the regime itself which is fighting for its own survival. Can Trump sustain US soldiers’ deaths? Does the American public have the stomach for it? Does he really understand the fight that he is being drawn into? And then there is the Venezuela factor. While of course he reals in his own victorious valour, the Maduro capture comes with a very heavy price that surely none of his coterie of yes men like Mario Rubio have pointed out – even if the Pentagon and State Department have, which is the position now of Russia and China. Both these countries will now be asking themselves what will be their collective fates if Iran falls and what to expect next after that. It is inconceivable that the previous roles that both China and Russia played in helping Iran with its first attacks will be sustained. More likely both countries will be forced to go much further as they are watching the madness of Trump evolve and they will see themselves as targets next in any case, so better act now rather than regret later. Given that Trump is all about centralised power which really comes back to him and only him, rather than delegating, one has to ask the obvious question, can he alone tackle the complexities and herculean barbarity of war with body bags arriving each day from the Middle East when he already has got his work cut out in South America? Does he even understand what a war with Iran and its allies really entails?
