In the end, predictably, the Circus Ringmaster went TACO (“Trump Always Chickens Out”).
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In the end, predictably, the Circus Ringmaster went TACO (“Trump Always Chickens Out”).
He was terrified by three crucial reality-based developments.
- The Iranian message on preparing to close the Strait of Hormuz. The CIA had warned Trump that China was viscerally opposed to the Strait being blocked. That’s one of the reasons, according to a Deep State old hand, that Trump decided to go ahead anyway with his “spectacular” (sic) theatrical op on Fordow. But when the specter of a blocked Hormuz destroying the global economy became real, he went TACO.
- The Iranian warning conveyed by the bombing of the Al-Udeid base in Qatar, the military jewel in the imperial crown in West Asia. Even Atlanticist sources in Doha confirm the damage to the – evacuated – base was “monumental”, with at least 3 missiles hitting their targets. Tehran was unmistakably saying we can hit you anywhere, anytime, with anything we want. And your GCC lackeys will blame you for it.
- Arguably the key reason: the genocidals in Tel Aviv are running out of interceptors – fast; in fact their whole – porous – air defense network is in trouble. In the last substantial Iranian missile volley on occupied Palestine on Monday morning, interception rate fell below 50%, and Iran started targeting Israel’s electric grid. Iran’s new directive – strategic offense, not patience – was meant to completely paralyze the Israeli economy. On top of it the genocidals had already begged Tehran to “end the war”. Tehran answered the time had not yet arrived. So the genocidals begged Daddy Trump to rescue them.
The chain of events leading to the ceasefire remains murky. A key accelerating factor was Putin’s personal meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi at the Kremlin on Monday.
Speaking on behalf of Ayatollah Khamenei, Araghchi may have asked for a solid supply of weapons and most of all defense systems; but these will take time, especially considering that the strategic partnership recently approved by both the Duma and the Majlis in Tehran is not – officially – a military alliance.
Yet according to sources in Moscow who were informed about the meeting, Putin did position Russia at the center of a possible resolution, thus displacing Washington. Team Trump 2.0 was incensed. Trump boasted that both Iran and Israel had called him almost simultaneously to arrance a ceasefire. Nonsense: only Tel Aviv did. As Putin made it clear, once again, that Russia would back Iran, he indirectly offered Trump an off-ramp.
True to character, the Circus Ringmaster jumped on it, marketing his own, branded ceasefire, reality show-style. And this only two days after gloating that the Iranian nuclear program was “obliterated” (he insists on it even as U.S. intel admits the program may have been set back for only a matter of months).
A supreme taboo has been broken
Iran has learned a few important lessons the hardest way, paying a horrendous price. Tehran was way too transparent and reasonable dealing with a bunch of gangsters: from allowing IAEA nuclear monitoring that turned out to be a process of amassing precious intel for Israeli targeting; and believing in diplomacy and honoring agreements that were unceremoniously ditched.
There’s no diplomacy when it comes to dealing with the imperial Leviathan/Behemoth – especially as it contemplates, in horror, its frootprint being reduced all across the Global South.
Domestically though, Iran is going to the next level. There are at least three factions in confrontation: Ayatollah Khamenei and his close circle plus the IRGC; the reformists, embodied by the meek Pezeshkian presidency; and what could be construed as secular nationalists, who want a strong Iran but not as a theo-democracy.
The IRGC now has all the power. Defending the homeland against the deadly Zionist axis, Empire included, crystalized a widespread sentiment of national unity and pride. All sectors of the Iranian population – 90 million, someone tell pathetic Marco Rubio – rallied around the flag.
Conceptually, the ceasefire – nobody knows how long it will last – is adverse to Iran, because its increasing deterrence capacity is now lost. Israel will have its air defenses feverishly replenished while Iran, alone, will need months and even years to rebuild.
The imperial modus operandi remains the same. The Circus Ringmaster saw that a monster humiliation was at hand –something like Israel’s Vietnam: so he announced a one-sided ceasefire and fled.
Yet the configuration for the next battles has changed. If Washington decides to escalate again, or resorts to the certified practice of using terror proxies, Iran as the de facto leader of the Resistance will resolutely counter-attack. The myth of genocidal invincibility has been shattered forever. The whole Global South has seen it, and now takes it in serious consideration.
It remains open to serious discussion whether Tehran will finally opt to follow a DPRK model to counteract the – failed, so far – imposition of a Libya and/or Syria model. Uranium enrichment will continue. With an added film noir plot twist: nobody knows where the uranium is.
The Empire of Chaos, predictably, will never stop. Only when the whole Global South unites with an iron will and force it to stop. The conditions are not in place – yet.
As it stands, the real ceasefire would be between the U.S. and the Global South, led institutionally by Russia-China, BRICS and several other multipolar organizations. The chance of the U.S. ruling classes honoring such a long-lasting ceasefire, if it ever happens, are less than zero.
As for the Iran-Israel ceasefire, that’s not the end of the war. On the contrary; it’s the – dubious – end of just the first hot battle. The dogs and hyenas of war will be back, sooner or later. There will be blood – over and over again. Yet at least a supreme taboo has been broken: that death cult in West Asia can indeed be mortally wounded.
