It’s as ominous at is sounds. Talk about a choice road towards a new world war. Will Shenzhen be able to prevent it? Don’t hold your breath.
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SHANGHAI – After spending 95 minutes on the phone with Mohsen Rezaee, the secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and number two of the Iranian government, three days later President Putin sent his private plane to Tehran to bring Rezaee and a small Iranian delegation to Moscow for a face-to-face meeting at the Kremlin.
The meeting leasted near 3 and half hours. And crucially, Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was in the room, via encrypted phone.
The end game is that Moscow now ranks its strategic partnership with Tehran at the level of its strategic partnership with Beijing, its highest. Significant technology assistance and transfer is under way. Russia has already delivered 12 advanced attack helicopters; a wide range of offensive and defensive equipment; and increased targeting capability, via satellite and fiber-optic drone technology.
That means in practice that Tehran is even more prepared than before to absorb a US and/or death cult attack and to answer it with overwhelming force. Russian engineers from NPO Mashinostroyenia were already helping Tehran to develop a ramjet engine for supersonic cruise-missiles; and there has been an order for 90 launchers for Iran’s Mi-28NE helicopters, routinely photographed at Mehrabad domestic airport since the start of the year.
Translation: any Epstein Syndicate strike plan now runs into an Iran that Moscow weaponizes the way it weaponizes its closest partner. Moreover, the IRGC has de facto lifted its self-imposed 1,200-mile missile-range limit and is building extra underground production and storage sites. Iran’s army spokesman confirms Iran’s forces are “stronger” than when the war began on February 28.
CENTCOM meanwhile is striking still below the level of a certified campaign, against an Iran now better equipped to answer.
Escalation ladder logic though remains in effect. Task Force Iron Gate is the new gimmick – to stop “prohibited” goods (as ruled by the Empire of Piracy) moving overland and across the Caspian, reducing options for both Russia and China.
The heart of the matter is that while the discombobulated Trump administration is picking up the pieces after the Blue-nami midterms, the next two weeks or so might feature some measure of diplomacy, before the Sociopath-in-Chief decides on how to launch a military attack on Iran.
This window was created at JD Vance’s request. There is no evidence whatsoever that Team Trump intends to show any flexibility on Iran’s seven conditions; see Marco Rubio’s rash outbursts.
Tehran for its part absolutely will not back down: the seven conditions must be met before any possible negotiations begin. Moreover, virtually everyone in the corridors of power in Tehran doubts whether opportunistic Vance has the power and the influence to play the diplomat.
Using Iraq to invade Iran
Rezaee came out of Moscow supremely confident, stressing that the long conversation covered West Asia security as whole, the post-war period and collaboration on gas pipelines, with Putin “ready to cooperate in any way” to end the war.
The S-400 front though is immensely debatable. There are no credible leaks regarding Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in his personal letter to Putin delivered by Rezaee, asking chiefly for S-400 defense systems. What they did agree on was ICBM and hypersonic cooperation.
Meanwhile, on the Chinese front, special envoy Zhai Jun is getting ready to visit Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia. In conversations in Shanghai, it was possible to confirm that Beijing’s imperatives remain a sovereign, solid Iran; free flow of energy trade across the Strait of Hormuz; and security for its Gulf partners.
Beijing is closely coordinating with Moscow. And quietly pitching itself as guarantor before the crucial Shenzhen meeting next week on the sidelines of APEC between Xi, Putin and Trump. The Russia-China strategic partnership, in Shenzhen, will have a
unique opportunity to stop the current, fatal cascade possibly leading to thermonuclear world war.
Iran’s calculation is to make a renewed Trump campaign too costly to even start. Russia of course wants and needs Iran to hold, and now treats it as it treats China: a top-tier partner it arms and equips without a defense pact.
The Sociopath-in-Chief wants maximum pressure short of a declared war: “minor” strikes; an even tighter blockade; Iron Gate. If the Epstein Syndicate moves to a full war campaign, it will meet rebuilt defenses; Russian helicopters; crucial outside targeting; and quite a few “surprises” by the IRGC.
Maximum caution should be exercised when it comes to Shenzhen being used as a ruse. The dire facts on the ground are in fact spelling out the imposition of the Iron Gate land siege madness, connected to the emphasis on blowing up 38 Iranian bridges – as admitted on the record by the Sociopath-in-Chief.
In parallel, the pathetic Iraqi Quisling government and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have seriously started threatening each other, in advance of what is now ominously in the open: imminent invasion plans of southern Iran, in the Ahwaz region, crammed with oil fields, by American troops deployed in Iraqi soil.
The Islamic Resistance has already warned Prime Minister Al-Zaidi that any attempt to arrest Shi’ite leaders would mean the fall of his government.
Meanwhile the US Secretary of State, in thesis a “diplomat” who never even bothered to attend the “negotiations” kabuki, already declared them to be a dead end, with “Iranian demands (…) simply not just unacceptable, but in some cases outrageous and ridiculous, and really not realistic.”
As if all of the above was not dire enough, some sort of shaping rhythm has been established by CENTCOM, which is now bombing Qeshm island for 2-3 nights running.
If and when CENTCOM’s Iron Gate tries to hit Iranian assets using land routes and/or the Caspian Sea, the escalation ladder will definitely go out of control, and Iran’s counterpunch will be off the charts.
It’s as ominous at is sounds. To enforce a heavy metal economic siege, the Sociopath-in-Chief and his minions are willing to blow dozens of bridges; railroad tracks; stop Russia in the Caspian Sea (good luck with that); and physically interdict trade between Iran’s seven land borders.
Talk about a choice road towards a new world war. Will Shenzhen be able to prevent it? Don’t hold your breath.
