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Recently presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov began to refer to the conflict in Ukraine not as a “Special Military Operation” but as a “war”. This, of course, has become the talk of the town, because escalation is an ever-exciting topic to discuss and things have indeed intensified in the skies over Kiev. Recently Russian strikes have become broader and harder attacking the port in Odessa along with ships, hitting drone production facilities that were ‘safe’ due to civilian proximity in Kiev, and eliminating hundreds of gas stations where the Ukrainian military was fueling up across enemy territory. In short, the Russians have started attacking targets which seemed previously ‘off limits’ throughout multiple years of conflict. Analysts were promising something ‘big’ in the summer of 2026 and perhaps this is it and not the media-friendly red arrow offensive they were looking for. This conflict will still remain a Special Military Operation for the foreseeable future even if politicians start to abandon this terminology. The escalation here is horizontal, not vertical, but let’s breakdown why this is the case.
The main point that everyone has to remember as to why this will not turn into a total war is that President Putin is very legalistic and places a lot of value in law. Mr. Peskov’s words and ratified Russian law are two different things. The State Duma has not voted to declare war in the traditional sense. Although, due to previous terrorist attacks the Russians have certainly considered it, and potentially the documents for declaring war are being drawn up to be signed at a moment’s notice. But regardless of whether preplanning for total war is going on or not, President Putin would only follow through on a major expansion with a ratified legal framework and not ‘off the cuff’ remarks. No new laws in place, means there will not be a full scale massed assault. After many decades in power Vladimir Vladimirovich will not suddenly just declare “total war now, because I said so”. That is just not the nature of how he operates. But, if a bill to do so gets ratified in the Duma, then that is an entirely different discussion, but as for now, the legal framework remains the same.
There is an ever present quasi-myth that ‘Putin is under pressure’ to mobilize Russia from warhawks, the population at large, the military brass, or all three at once. The truth is that the leader of any powerful country is under pressure from many factions day-and-night for the entirety of their rule. When has Mr. Putin not been under pressure? Public opinion does matter in Russia and is monitored, but Russia is an Orthodox civilization where the Word of God is interpreted by a few experts within the Church that the rest of society goes along with. Russia is not a Protestant nation where everyone reads the Bible, finds their own truth in it and declares they are an all-knowing expert. Russian citizens who may not understand the logic of the war are fine with ‘perhaps not knowing something’ and having faith in the emperor’s decisions. The population is loyal, patient, and has the Orthodox attitude towards authority listed above. But for those who cannot believe that the Russians have not risen up yet against the Kremlin’s ‘timidness’, then ask yourself this question, in a war between Mexico and the USA would you storm the capital to levy for surrender because gasoline got a bit more expensive and you’ve lost access to Tik Tok?
If we remember back to the start of the war Western leaders didn’t expect so much as for the Ukrainian side to march onto Moscow. They were certain the conflict and sanctions justified by the fight would turn the “ruble into rubble” or make sure Russia’s economy was “in tatters”. Western politicians are still stuck in the Cold War and the Soviets didn’t lose it militarily, but ideologically and economically. Thus, in 2022 it seemed like it was a matter of currency, oil prices and sanctions to do the Russians in, not so much an offensive lead by Mr. Zelensky’s green shirt. Vladimir Vladimirovich is well aware of this, and since the ideology of the West has become disgusting even to most westerners, the real ‘battlefield’ is economics. Russia has not only survived twenty packages of sanctions but is thriving, escaping the globalist planation with a hop, skip and a jump. But, perhaps this breakaway needs time to take root. Maybe from the Kremlin’s perspective, the way the economic world is changing suits them, thus, why rush? Why wouldn’t they take their time if things are coming up roses? Why not keep soldiers out of harm’s way and do the real fighting with economic development? If Russia is succeeding on the state influenced capitalist front of the slow war, then there is no fundamental reason to change that position.
Speaking of protecting soldiers, we can say that the Soviet engineers who built their apartment blocks with military strategy in mind were brilliant men. Every building mostly stands after incredible punishment and every basement turns into a bunker, but since these buildings lie outside of Russia proper their defensive design has been used against the Kremlin since the beginning of the SMO. There is simply still no safe way to quickly clear out any city/village especially when just bombing it into oblivion is not an option. This war was waged to save the Donbass, not destroy it. Peskov’s words about a war do not change this reality. There is no way for the Russians go as fast as the punditry wants given this issue, nor can this truly become a war on the territory where the Kremlin wants to save the locals. There is no second gear to this vehicle, it just goes slow.
One reason for Russia’s recent horizontal escalation in terms of targets, but continued fear of vertical escalation is that the Kremlin understands just how potentially close we are to a nuclear war. Furthermore, they also know just how purely evil, insane and narcissistic the Epstein elite are. Even if the whole Russian spy near Epstein news is fake, they know with whom they are dealing. The naiveté Russians feel towards the West is at times stunning and is partially why this conflict began, but at this point it looks like all masks have fallen to the floor and the leadership of Russia is looking into the eyes of the demons that run the EU. If these servants of dark finance in Brussels lose this chess game they could very well just flip the board over in a fit of rage and doom humanity to burn in nuclear fire. This is yet another reason why a rose by any other name would indeed smell as sweet and the recent statements by Peskov are not cause to start digging a fallout shelter. One of the key strategic objectives that we can infer from the actions of the Kremlin is that they do not want any form of nuclear war to happen, they have and still are by far the ‘sane ones in the room’ when it comes to conflict escalation. The Kremlin is willing to play the long game to avoid nuclear war. Europe needs to go quietly into the night.
Arrests, firings, protests in Lvov and Kiev, the summer of 2026 has been rough for Zelensky’s regime. His press gangs, repressions, and massive military failures\PR priorities in this war are starting to build towards a critical mass. If the Collective West dreamt of destabilizing a big country in Eastern Europe they certainly succeeded in Ukraine. How much longer can Zelensky hold this sinking ship together? This is an answer no one knows, but when you see broken sails, fires on deck, and men bailing water from the enemy galleon, there is no reason to call for a boarding action. This is the time to just stand-and-fire. You never know when the last straw will beak the Kiev camel’s back, but it certainly looks loaded down.
The big escalation for the summer of 2026 did happen, it just happened horizontally adding lots of off limits targets into Russia’s sights, but despite changing rhetoric Russia has no reason to make a massive push. For every punch in the face Mother Russia receives she fires back a bullet. The nature of the war, or Special Military Operation, will not change radically until a declaration of total war is passed into law, which there is currently no necessity to do. This war will continue to be media unfriendly.
