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Suddenly, it would seem that there is hope for peace in the Middle East, or at least most of it, as Trump secured what he believed to be a deal with the Iranians. In reality, of course, it was the Iranians who had the advantage all along and gave him the “off ramp” which he desperately needed. The constant threats, with the most recent posting using foul language mocking Islam, all signalled that the U.S. president was losing his mind, tortured by a sense of no one listening to him, like a child in the corner who is forced to be naughty just to get the attention of adults. But there was a point in recent days – perhaps the social media post which used the ’F’ word – where it was clear he lost all control, his threats were empty, and it was Iran which held ALL the cards. And so a provisional deal was struck, which simply accepted a list of demands by the Iranians as a basis for negotiations. This was probably the greatest military defeat in modern times that any U.S. president has had to endure in office, and the humiliation for Trump is axiomatic. What a climbdown. From constantly playing a role in front of the cameras as the victor who is in control to actually being on the losing side which is prepared to do almost anything to get a ceasefire. The recent military operation to attempt to seize uranium involving special forces and Hercules planes, which went horribly wrong when the mission failed and then the subsequent rescue mission also failed, was one final slap in the face for Trump, who must have realised at this point that all of the military briefings that he was given were bad and that most of the people around him who are advising him have no military experience at all and are out of their depth.
But it’s actually worse than that.
In recent days, it has transpired that what we originally thought got Trump into the war in the first place – an out-of-control fixation to bomb Iran no matter what deal was offered, goaded by Israel – was in fact erroneous. There are credible reports now circulating that claim that Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff actually misunderstood what the Iranians had offered them when they were negotiating a deal – a deal which was much better than what was offered to Obama and would have made Trump come out of the negotiations a winner. Many analysts at the time were shocked that Trump’s decision to bomb Iran came about because, they thought at the time, that Iran had made a credible offer too soon and that the Trump team were not interested in peace and so were left in an awkward position, looking like fraudsters. In reality, it now seems, they simply didn’t grasp what was being offered to them, such is their lack of competence and their poor command of the English language. The Iranians are all highly educated and speak English remarkably well, and yet it would seem that the two sides were divided by the nuances of English. The two cronies that Trump sent were simply not bright enough to really see the wood from the trees, and as a consequence the U.S. has lost the Straits of Hormuz to Iran now, the petrodollar is on the way out, a new regime is indeed in place (but one which now favours a nuclear deterrent), relations with GCC countries are irreparably damaged, and a new powerful Iran has emerged from the ashes in the region.
Plain stupidity by Trump and his unique style of running the presidency using friends and sycophants as advisers has got him to a place where even Sky News calls a “massive strategic defeat” for the U.S., as now the ten-point plan not only calls for reparations but also includes the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from the region and all sanctions to be lifted against Iran.
For the U.S. to lift sanctions, it has to be backed by Congress, which is unlikely to do so, although there are some observers who say they might back it just to spite Trump. In reality, it will be UN sanctions which will have to go, but the real blow to the U.S. is that the petrodollar is finished and that America’s influence in the region has been taken over by Iran. Tehran is the new regional power, all thanks to the sensational stupidity of Trump and his airhead cronies.
But there’s more stupidity to come.
Barely a few hours after the plan was accepted by Trump, it transpired that the Americans believed that the ceasefire doesn’t cover Lebanon. J.D. Vance told journalists that this was probably down to a “genuine misunderstanding by the Iranians”, despite it being clearly written in one of the points: “end to all hostilities in the region”.
Ceasing hostilities against all resistance groups in region
And so Lebanon, and what Netanyahu is doing there – deliberately creating a forever war there with Hezbollah so he can continue to stay in power and evade corruption charges – is now the most important part, if not the Achilles heel, of the deal. What are we to make of the explanation of J.D. Vance? Is it a ruse to trick the Iranians, so that Israel can be rearmed? Is all that Trump needs a pause of a few weeks before he believes he can come back with an even more hare-brained plan to “invade” Iran? It’s unclear, although critical observers are beginning to realise the level of incompetence and rank ineptitude on the American side and are starting to use the “idiot” argument to explain most of these grey areas. As was brilliantly summed up by a former CIA director on live TV, Trump was called “a pathological liar, corrupt and incompetent” whose reliance on sycophants who only tell him what he wants to hear got him into the mess he is in today. Trump’s blundering in Iran has made Tehran richer and more powerful than it ever was before and will leave it still able to process uranium. Trump played the escalation game all along with Iranians who were much smarter and always one step ahead, who ultimately turned the same game against him. Tiny Lebanon now takes centre stage.
