Zelensky is increasingly looking like the heart of the problem who is running out of allies.
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Just how long has Volodymyr Zelensky got? While it was always a question that western hacks often asked, now we are seeing that it is commentators and journalists alike in Kiev who are indulging themselves in this wishful thinking. Earlier this year I was asked by a Russia Today anchor what were the indications that a regime is about to fall, if indeed there are any. I replied that it was with the flight of top people. When leading figures, close to a dictator, make a bolt to the airport or even use their private jet with a couple of suitcases, this is usually a sign that the end is near.
In recent days, a close friend and ally of Zelensky, Timur Mindich was tipped off that anti-corruption investigators were about to raid his home, over an alleged role he played in a 100-million dollar kickback. It would transpire that he was the ring leader, yet he nonetheless decided not to stick around and face the music. This shows that he knew that Zelensky would not rescue him and that friendship and loyalty mean nothing in the scorpion soup of Ukrainian politics. As part of that same investigation, Zelensky’s own chief of staff Andriy Yermak was nudged out of his top job, apparently betrayed by Zelensky in a move which has shocked the political class, due to the closeness of these two figures and the fact that it is widely known that Yermak “knows where all the bodies are buried” as one put it on social media. Until now Zelensky only had good things to say about him, although when pushed, he said he would only fire him if he were connected to corruption cases, so we shouldn’t consider the move so mysterious. Yet there are those who believe that this bold move by Zelensky was about making a gesture to the masses given that his popularity is falling and would not be helped by an energy scandal when many Ukrainians are freezing in their homes.
To really understand what is behind much of these gestures, it’s important to grasp the internal battle going on between the police who are loyal to Zelensky and the anti-corruption agency NABU who discovered that it was Yermak – who they nicknamed “Ali Baba” – who was behind the actions of police officers who were behind the intimidation of NABU officers.
Ukraine’s chief anti-corruption judge Oleksandr Klymenko is reported to have said earlier in November that “Ali Baba is holding meetings and assigning tasks to law enforcement agencies to ensure they persecute NABU detectives and anti-corruption prosecutors.”
The removal of Yermak may also be political on other levels as Zelensky might want to toss the occasional figure to NABU to show, at least as a gesture, that he is not the queen bee in the hive of corruption. In many ways, Yermak has considerable power and influence within government and so his ousting comes as a shock as Zelensky now, in tough times, will seek to form a stronger bond with the parliament.
But how much of these scandals form the basis of change in Ukraine and for Zelensky’s ultimate departure? There’s much speculation with some even guessing that he will make a shocking announcement in the middle of December striking a deal with Russia. Such a rumour would make sense given that the EU is unable to unlock the 300 bn USD they are holding of Russian assets and that a December 18th Summit will be the chance for Brussels to face the gaping 80 bn USD deficit the Ukrainian government has for 2026/2027. Something has to give.
Not the IMF, not EU governments are signalling that they are prepared to continue throwing EU taxpayers money into the Ukraine pot which means the whole charade of war is over as drastic cuts will face Zelensky, probably starting with the one department which swallows up the lion’s share of the budget: the army.
And so a deal with Russia looks likely but is he the one to sign it?
Such a signed accord, many argue, will be worthless hours after he would then be overthrown.
Two names are often bandied about as possible candidates who could sign such a deal and for the deal to hold, however. Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko have both been leaders of the county in recent years but also have their own legacies of being caught red-handed with their hands in the till – Tymoshenko actually went to jail for it. And yet they are the only two who would comfortably deal with the Russians and get a deal which Moscow will respect. Analysts argue that Tymoshenko would be more likely than Poroshenko simply because she is hated less. Tough times call for tough choices which barely seem credible but at this stage anyone who can sign a deal with Russia and make it stick will be a star not only with the Ukrainian people but also the EU and U.S. Zelensky is increasingly looking like the heart of the problem who is running out of allies.
