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Israel has been bombing Lebanon for days, claiming the territory as it has already done several times during decades of territorial occupation and wars. On Saturday 28 September, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, found martyrdom under the bombs dropped on Beirut, the capital. And this means only one thing: c’est la guerre, it is war.

A memory of Nasrallah

I personally met Sayyed Nasrallah in 2023, at an international meeting. Beyond anything one might politically welcome or disapprove of, he was a man of great courage, ardent love for his people and faith. And he was also very playful and likeable, in addition to the great charisma he expressed from metres away, which was truly palpable. He aroused a deep respect in everyone, in a natural way, without imposing any authority. I remember that he addressed some sympathetic words to me for the fact that I was Italian and that I was in a Middle Eastern, Islamic and avowedly anti-Western context, thanking me for the courage of my presence and testimony.

Telling who Nasrallah was will take more than a few lines.

Born in 1960 in Beirut, Hassan Nasrallah was the eldest of nine children in a family of fruit vendors, poor and not particularly religious. His family fled Beirut in 1975, at the beginning of the Lebanese civil war. In 1978, he joined the Amal Movement, a Shia political and militia group founded by the Iranian-Lebanese cleric Musa al-Sadr. In 1982, he switched to Hezbollah, a newly founded militia supported by Iran and created to resist the Israeli invasion of South Lebanon. His rapid rise through the ranks led him to become head of Hezbollah’s executive council in 1985.

Nasrallah’s links with Shia leaders and revolutionary figures during his trips to Iraq and Iran in the 1970s and 1980s prepared him for more important roles. In 1992, after the assassination of Abbas al-Musawi, then leader of Hezbollah and Nasrallah’s mentor, Nasrallah took over its leadership. He vowed to continue al-Musawi’s path, stating: ‘We will continue this path… even if we are martyred, all of us, and our homes are demolished on our heads, we will not abandon the choice of the Islamic Resistance’.

Nasrallah led Hezbollah for over 30 years, turning it into a major political and military force.

Under Sayeed Nasrallah’s leadership, Hezbollah became one of the most formidable militias in the Middle East, adopted guerrilla tactics by incorporating special operations units such as the Radwan Force, and expanded its capabilities with rockets, missiles, and long-range drones. By 2021, Hezbollah’s force had reached 100,000 fighters.

Hezbollah’s military victories against Israel became Nasrallah’s main legacy. In 2000, Hezbollah forced Israel to withdraw from South Lebanon after years of guerrilla warfare. In 2006, during the Lebanon War, Hezbollah stood up to Israeli forces, gaining widespread popularity among supporters as the only Arab armed force capable of repelling the IDF.

Nasrallah also played a crucial role in entrenching Hezbollah in Lebanese political life. Under his leadership, the party participated in elections, winning 12 parliamentary seats in 1992 and 15 seats in 2022, becoming a significant player in Lebanese politics. In 2009, it also changed Hezbollah’s platform to focus on resistance to external enemies and abandoned the goal of creating an Islamic republic in Lebanon, out of respect for the country’s religious diversity.

Internationally, Hezbollah has forged unusual diplomatic ties for a non-state actor of its stature, becoming a key member of the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance. Although the United States, its European allies, and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries classify it as a ‘terrorist organisation’, Hezbollah maintains cordial contacts with rising global powers, including Russia and China, largely due to Nasrallah’s diplomacy and moderating influence.

What will happen now

What is of interest more than anything else is what will happen now.

Trying to observe the general chaos that this ominous event has unleashed, the first fact to observe is the strength with which the people of the resistance are reacting. Solidarity has come from all fronts and from all authorities and groups, with great popular celebrations from the first hours after the news broke. Killing one of the leaders of the Resistance Axis is not the same as killing the resistance; on the contrary, it has the opposite effect, it strengthens it and confirms it in its mission.

As it was meant to be, the Axis reaction immediately erupted and in a unified manner, from the various countries that are part of it, response attacks began. Even Iran is deploying a contingent of armed forces in the Golan, ready to intervene in support. Tensions are running high.

Meanwhile, Israel is ready to invade Lebanon by land and certainly has no intention of waiting any longer. The project of the ‘greater Israel’, as already idealised by the fathers of the Dreyfus Declaration, with which the Zionist state was established by occupying Palestine, has always been consistently pursued and will certainly not see a break now. Southern Lebanon is claimed as Israeli territory and Lebanon is already in a disastrous situation, with a NATO military occupation, with the yoke of the US dollar and with, ipso facto, a non-government that does nothing but obey Washington’s orders.

In all this, it is interesting to analyse the US-Israel conjunction, which again has not been long in coming. There are discordant voices: officially, the White House declared that there had been no agreement on the massive attack that saw more than 80 heavy missiles being dropped on Beirut, and there is even talk of an indignant and furious Lloyd Austin, Secretary of Defence, over what happened, while President Joe Biden did not waste a moment celebrating the incident, as did the presidential candidates; on the other hand, it is equally true that the attack was authorised by Netanyahu while he was in New York at the UN plenary and carried out with American missile systems. It is completely implausible that the Israeli authority acted in total disconnection with the American one. The Pentagon has already reported that the US military presence will be deployed throughout the Middle East in the coming days, setting up a major war extension.

Israel’s destructive fury will not stop at any institutional issue. The Zionist entity continues its project undisturbed, under the blinded eyes of the leaders gathered at the UN. There was no need even to wait for the US elections, in any case support for Israel would have been complete, because the Democrats care about the expansion of globalism, while the Republicans are by definition Zionists and prime supporters of Tel Aviv’s agenda.

Looking north, Russia is the great absentee in this diatribe. True, there has been a long-standing link between Israel and Russia since Soviet times. The second citizenship of many Israelis is Russian. Many Russian oligarchs and men of power belong to Zionist lineages. The internal struggle for the ‘cleansing’ of Russian Zionism already started years ago and intensified with the start of the Special Military Operation, but it has not yet reached a point where the Moscow government can intervene directly. In the Middle East, Russia under Putin’s leadership has maintained a doctrine consistent with preserving the interests of regional governments, taking the lead in the fight against terrorism, but has never intervened directly, on an official level, in political matters.

There is also an Israel-Russia-Hezbollah connection that few know about: as one of the US National Technical Information Service’s Foreign Broadcast Information reports, the 1985 Near East/Souht Asia Report, shows, in the 1980s Israel trained spies and infiltrators in Hezbollah through some Russian officers, who were then taken out by the militias. The aim was to destroy Hezbollah from within, starting with its leadership (of which there was the first victim in 1992).

Several people are asking questions about the possibility of an active role of China in the matter. Indeed, China has already offered its willingness to act as a peacemaker on several occasions and in several scenarios, such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but this time the situation is different: China never intervenes in issues that have a markedly religious trait, as a country that is officially atheist, albeit with a variety of religions within it. The Middle East question, the Zionist question, is deeply religious, linked to the eschatological dimension of Islam and Christianity and to the political plans of a confessional state like Israel. Chinese wisdom is not wont to meddle in such affairs. Certainly, help from the East would elevate the affair to another level of international relations and cooperation, giving China a further opportunity to position itself as a world leader in this sector as well, but this is no small imbalance, which according to Chinese logic must be reasoned out over a long period of time for its consequences. Difficult, therefore, to envisage any help from China now.

Iran’s role in all this is very important. Here we touch on a delicate subject.

Iran is experiencing a phase of particular internal instability. In recent months, there have been several replacements in the ranks of the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders due to the corruption and compromise of some members. A double game of intelligence, a few cases of corruption and several open investigations, the outcome of which will certainly not be announced outside the country. Iran, it should be remembered, is not a state that tells the world about its internal problems. Dirty laundry is washed at home.

However, this has caused a great deal of instability that now weighs heavily: without sufficient unity, the Pasdaran cannot wage war. Coordination is needed with all the Iranian Armed Forces and the Resistance countries.

Another hard blow was the death of President Ebrahim Raisi together with Foreign Minister Hossein Armi-Abdollahian and the other passengers of the helicopter, in circumstances that were officially declared as ‘natural’ but which in the circumstances of the case continue to appear unnatural and very… other-worldly. Shortly afterwards, Iran experienced the most disastrous elections in its republican history, with turnout at an all-time low. A decidedly negative sign, suggesting that low-profile operations by foreign intelligence services such as Mossad, CIA and MI6 had taken their toll. The internal struggle has brought the progressive leader Masoud Pezeskhian to the government, who is proving to be extremely cautious, wait-and-see and not very responsive to the international situation, but above all far from the Raisi line and, therefore, there is not the same determination to continue the battle for Al-Quds as the political reason for the Iranian constitution itself. Let us also not forget the other long series of victims in the ranks of the Resistance, such as the assassination attempt on Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran.

Meanwhile, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is carrying out his wise work of calling all the world’s Muslims to battle, something he reiterated even immediately after Nasrallah’s death and which he will certainly continue to do, but it is equally true that Khamenei is neither a political leader nor a military commander, so his function as a spiritual guide cannot replace that of heads of state and generals.

On the other hand, Israel is no joke, it is a nuclear power with advanced weapons and is not afraid to make enemies. Iran in comparison is still too fragile a country and already equips the Axis of Resistance. In the event of all-out war, Israel would face an existential threat and would have no problem using the weapons at its disposal. An aggressive nuclear power with a strong army is best defeated by a protracted war directly on its borders. By straining its economy and wearing down its home front. With or without its old leadership, Hezbollah is designed to do exactly that.

Something has gone wrong. Probably too many spies, too many infiltrators. Israeli intelligence worked well and brought home important victories. On the other front, there is probably a lack of stability and cunning on the part of the decision-making bodies. Too many mistakes have been made and the price has been terrible.

The most positively optimistic expectation is that of a very decisive and timely reaction by the Axis of Resistance, with the military engagement of friendly countries, such as Russia, in order to stem Zionist expansionism and avoid further slaughter in Lebanon. On the other hand, in a more pessimistic perspective, Israel will carry out another invasion within a few days, starting another war with Lebanon and extending the conflict on a global scale, causing an international blockade that could be very negative for the multipolar transition.

Indeed, one must remember that the entry of the new states into the BRICS+ partnership would make the geo-economic alliance majority Islamic, with a boost to anti-Zionist policies worldwide, and Israel knows this and wants to prevent it from happening. A war now, dragging Russia’s interests in the middle, risks causing a delay in the reception of the new BRISC members and, thus, a significant impediment to the revival of the Resistance.