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Can Ukraine’s caretaker president Zelensky derail any possible ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran? In recent weeks, a coterie of commentators and journalists have got their heads around the realities of Trump ever getting a working ceasefire in place and have acknowledged that Benjamin Netanyahu is central to that happening, as he is reluctant to withdraw IDF troops from Lebanon. And now, at Lindsey Graham’s funeral, we are led to believe that Trump will ask him one more time to consider taking his troops out of Lebanon – and once again Bibi will refuse. With elections in Israel just weeks away now and the lion’s share of analysts there painting a bleak picture for Bibi’s survival, the only hope he has to stay in power and avoid graft charges is to keep the war alive with Iran and Hezbollah. Trump’s only card to play, some argue, is to threaten to stop fuelling Israel’s military, which could, in theory, grind the entire IDF to a halt. But would he? Such a move would be seen as a direct attack on Bibi, and despite many claiming that the best thing Trump could do to salvage some political credibility heading towards the midterms would be to create some distance between him and the Jewish lobby, the reality is that Trump is stuck.
But it just got a whole lot worse, as it turns out that President Zelensky in Ukraine – whom Trump once lambasted in the White House for “not having cards” – actually has the odd ace to play, making a link between the Ukraine war and Iran. The nightmare scenario of the Iran war merging with the Ukraine one just became a reality, as at least two ships in the Caspian Sea were recently hit by Ukraine, suspected of being part of Iran’s shadow fleet carrying weapons from Iran to Russia.
According to the BBC, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said its drones had hit an oil platform in the northern Caspian Sea, along with a Russian missile boat and “cargo ships that are under international sanctions.”
Iran’s ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, told Iran’s state news agency that the “Anna” ship had been anchored about 5km (3 miles) from the mouth of the Volga River when it was targeted.
Ukraine’s ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk, said the vessel had been carrying components for drones and missiles from Iran to Russia, not civilian cargo, but didn’t back up its claims with any concrete evidence.
While it’s not a secret that Iran’s weapons are sold to Russia, the event could mark a turning point in that if Tehran chooses to retaliate against Ukraine, then both wars enter a new phase, presenting the mother of all migraines for Trump, who is hoping that he can claim some sort of victory by opening the Straits of Hormuz and getting the Iranians to make a pledge about not developing nuclear weapons. Even without the Ukraine dimension, though, Trump’s fumbling about, desperately trying to find a solution to the mess he has created in Iran, is looking increasingly difficult given that he doesn’t have any strategy and that any deal he makes has to have a PR component which redirects any ignominy away from him. For the moment, the recent hiatus to the strikes on the U.S. side has been reciprocated by the Iranians, and so once again we have a pause to the destruction while Pakistan or Qatar try to breathe new life into back-channel discussions – while Omani officials work out how to kickstart oil tanker traffic through the straits.
But this time around it’s even harder than last time, as Iran has no patience whatsoever for vacuous talks. This time round, it will have to see action if Trump is to get anything concrete from Tehran, as Iranian hardliners firmly believe that Trump’s treacherous nature can now no longer be ignored. They know it’s only a matter of time before he breaks his own deals, conjures up a false flag attack, or simply strikes Iran again for the hell of it – like your four-year-old pressing the buttons on the remote while the adults are busy in the kitchen.
The ‘walking away’ option, which analysts constantly throw up when asking the harder question of what Trump can actually do, has never before been so real. If Trump decides to let the Iranians run the straits in exchange for an informal, armistice-like ceasefire, there is a faint hope that he could begin talks with them over a nuclear deal, but this would be hugely costly to the U.S. and Trump, as it would have to mean unlocking the $100 billion USD which the U.S. holds in bank accounts of Iran’s money and, at the very least, getting a guarantee in Lebanon. For the IDF and Bibi, this is something that Trump and the Iranians might have to wait for, until the elections in Israel give a clearer picture of whether Netanyahu will even be the PM in a few weeks’ time. Between then and now, a financial deal made in instalments might secure peace with Iran alone.
But can Trump keep Zelensky under control? A new front opening up whereby Ukraine uses its long-range missiles to hit Iranian-chartered ships is not in the interests of either Trump or Tehran, and President Putin, whose army has just shut down Odessa’s sea port, will certainly not tolerate such thuggery from Zelensky. The pressure on Putin to hit Ukraine even harder – destroying all its power infrastructure and weapons manufacturing – is mounting daily, but now the Caspian threat will be seen both by Trump and Putin as a thorn in both their sides.
Zelensky is desperate and determined at all costs to make the Ukraine war truly global, as he believes this is his survival ticket, and hitting such ships is seen as a double whammy, as he hits two enemies in one: both Russia and Iran.
Meanwhile, Trump is out of ammo in the Middle East. This is now widely accepted in Washington circles, as practically all of his missiles are at very low levels with no quick restocking possible. According to former CIA officer and podcast pundit Larry Johnson, the U.S. military is running desperately low on almost everything, especially air defence systems like Patriots and Thaad, making the refuelling planes that have just been sent to Israel look like sitting ducks to Tehran – which is cautious about striking Israel for the moment, as it doesn’t want to assist Netanyahu in gaining political capital with his ruse to win more votes from the Israeli public via the so-called ‘Iran threat’.
For Trump’s mercurial game with the Ukrainian president and the bigger questions over how much the U.S. could and should support the Ukraine war, the muddy water just got clearer. If Russia were to defeat Ukraine and Zelensky were ousted, this can only be seen as a way of clawing back some credibility from Tehran’s hardliners – which Trump desperately needs if any deal of any nature is to be secured. But how much time does the Donald have, and perhaps more importantly, how much patience does he have for his cokehead friend in Kiev?
