Trump is certainly losing patience in Ukraine, Martin Jay writes.
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It’s impossible to say if the rumours are true that Trump is trying a soft coup in Ukraine by nudging Zelensky out of office and replacing him with the former army general Valerii Zaluzhny. But these reports, which seem to be born from comments by legendary U.S. journalist Seymour Hersh, are starting to circle, albeit in the form of fringe media. Legacy media so far, while not writing up the rumours, seems to be doing its bit though to encourage Zelensky to leave office, with the recent unprecedented attacks both by the FT and the British spectator magazine shocking many with their expose of his more authoritarian style of governance.
When Zelensky removed Zaluzhny from the top military post, rumours circulated both in Ukraine and within some of the more highbrow western outlets that were close to America’s daily dealings with the Ukrainian president that the move was political. While Zaluzhny did have some problems with Zelensky over strategy, it was also suspected that the army chief also had political ambitions of his own. Indeed it is odd that an army chief would take to writing editorials for western media outlets while also briefing journalists that he didn’t agree with Zelensky’s strategies. Something had to be done with him so rather than throw him in jail, which would have risked a political uproar, it was decided to make him a victim of a political shuffle. He got moved to the UK where he is Ukraine’s ambassador. That move might prove to be a serious oversight by Zelensky as it put Zaluzhny closer to the belly of the beast.
While Zaluzhny looks every bit the part of a burly military figure in army fatigues, his facial hair arrangement – more like a religious fanatic – and stocky build give him more of a look akin to a night club bouncer than a leader of a country. And so if he is being groomed by Trump, it might suggest that the thinking is that a military dictator now is what is required in Ukraine to keep the peace when a new deal is signed off with Russia. A military man who is able to keep an army in order, disciplined and ready to defend new borders and who knows who is paying the bills.
Trump is certainly losing patience in Ukraine. His recent more bellicose comments about Putin and the delusional threats he has alluded to carrying out are hardly deft political moves, given Russia’s strength militarily. And so it would seem obvious that Trump will look to make a dramatic move soon so that he can, in his mind at least, garner more respect from Putin. Replacing Zelensky is the lowest hanging fruit there is and it’s likely he will grab it. Perhaps more than setting a new balance of power between Trump and Putin, it would also be a very smart move to put the Europeans in order. The message will be clear to France, Britain and Germany: I’m calling the shots here.
The idea from the Europeans was that, in the event of a peace deal being struck, Ukraine could host scores of thousands of western soldiers to supposedly fend off a Russian threat. Trump may well go along with that, but he will want to be the one who controls them, rather than European leaders and so a NATO operation might be feasible. NATO itself is going through a seismic panic attack about its own credibility as the further the Russian front line advances, the more its bosses and western leaders realise that its own credibility wanes. It’s the main reason why this constant narrative, which is promoted by senior British army officers, that Britain and other NATO countries need to prepare “for war with Russia in five years” keeps being offered, despite no explanation whatsoever why in five years, or any shred of intel is offered to even show this new Russian threat. It is of course folly and largely driven by the military’s worry that it will itself be downsized as more cost cutting is inevitably rolled out by a failed economy and a clueless government. The case for this fake news being promoted is even stronger for the security services who also worry about jobs and so the Russian threat has to be sexed up, just as the case against Saddam Hussein was which led to entirely fake intel being the main justification for the 2003 Iraq invasion.
For Russia, a newly elected President in Ukraine would be a positive move. Putin has always been concerned about signing any deals with Zelensky which later on maybe abandoned given that his own mandate in office has expired. It would, after all, not be the first time the West has pulled the stunt of signing a peace treaty with Russia only for it to toss it aside. The Minsk agreements were really a fake deal for the West’s dirty tricks and so Putin is not going to sign anything with a leader whose current period in office is illegitimate.
For Trump and the West there are obvious advantages in having someone in power who is going to be servile to their needs and breaks this routine of Europe using Zelensky as a way of tackling Trump. Zaluhzny would be Trump’s man and the Europeans would have to accept it and whatever deal Trump goes for. That is, of course a deal can be done. Trump might be thinking of installing the former army chief as President simply as a way of building up Ukraine’s potential new threat to Russia if relations sour between him and Putin as he even said before he was elected in his second term that an option would always be to beef up with Ukrainian army and take on Russia if he didn’t get his way with a peace deal.
The real mistake for Zelensky is that he didn’t show the required respect for Trump when the cameras were rolling which marked him from the beginning as dispensable. With Zaluhzny the relationship will be more subservient although it’s worth noting the number of times installed dictators of the west invariably turn on their masters. The adage of ‘don’t bite the hand that feeds you’ is rarely respected in recent years. Typically it is Trump’s pathetic ego which makes enemies of those he should be trying to understand and work with. He realised recently that the 50 day “deadline” he imposed on Putin to find a solution in Ukraine made him look silly. The stunt he played with the EU recently to secure a 15% tariff deal should not give him the required hubris though to threaten Putin. Different game players and stakes. Trump’s ego now has forced him to make a stand against Putin and for how poorly the Europeans have treated him.
Yet installing Zeluhnzy will not be the game changer that Trump hopes for as the reports intensify on Russia taking the region and, at some point, the city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. When that happens, key supply routes will be cut off to the Ukrainian army which will allow Russian forces to advance quickly to take neighbouring regions. The goons in the Pentagon have obviously told Trump this which is why he hasn’t got 50 days before NATO will possibly suffer its greatest humiliation to date which could spark a crisis of confidence among many of its members. How will Trump explain to his MAGA base that Putin has abandoned his peace plan and decided to simply take Ukraine? Has Zaluhnzy told him, as president and leader of the army, he has a plan which could fend off the Russian army?
