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Trump’s declaration on his own social media platform that he is talking with the Iranians should be seen in its comical light, of a U.S. president who came from a reality TV background, is a prolific liar and has no understanding of international politics, let alone warfare. Many people called his climbdown, and so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he is now scrambling to a short-term solution.
Being obsessed with media coverage and a junkie for constant coverage, Trump’s short-term objectives are to buy time. With this idiotic stunt of lying to America about talks with the Iranians, which they denied quite fortuitously, we can see there is a certain panic setting in as oil hovers around the $100 USD mark and he has no plans at all of how to get himself out of the tangled web of blunders and poor military planning. Trump doesn’t plan. He feels vulnerable with plans as they tie him down, where others can get ahead of the game and manipulate him. Trump is like a magician who is constantly creating illusions with smoke, mirrors, dust and pretty women in tight-fitting costumes. In all this haze, he pulls a rabbit out of his hat and he captures the moment. Reality TV lends itself very well to someone who learned years ago about how lying to the TV cameras was even easier than doing it to business partners, friends and family.
A recent piece in the New York Times has drawn attention to how the head of Mossad convinced both Netanyahu and Trump that the Iranian regime was somehow like a house of cards, which only needed someone to blow on them, and it would all come tumbling down within a second. So he was suckered into an idea which is now generating a new debate in the U.S. as to what the relationship is with Israel and how Netanyahu has objectives in Iran and the region which are at odds with America’s.
Some believe this is the time now to get tough with Netanyahu. Few have noted the irony that one of the few things that both Trump and Bibi have in common is that they are both battling for their own political longevity, with prison sentences a real possibility when they leave office.
For those in the U.S. who have the time to look, it’s clear that almost everything that the American/Israeli campaign pulled off resulted in a calamity on a scale which no one, not even Trump’s greatest enemies, could have predicted. He has relaxed oil sanctions, not only on Russia, but also on Iran itself in a desperate, frenzied bid to keep oil below $100 USD and stop the market from panicking. He has allowed the Iranians to take control of the Straits of Hormuz, which has not only allowed them to monetize it at great profit but also to use it as leverage while the rest of the world wonders how it will cope with oil hitting $150 USD a barrel in a week or two, when fertilizer starts to skyrocket in price, or even if printed circuit boards can no longer be made. The straits are a lot more than just about oil.
We can only pray that Trump is preparing to wriggle out of Iran and, bereft of any sensible idea, he did what he always does which is propose moronic fantasy deadlines (which no one respects) which, in this case, is five days for Iran to climb down.
But Iran is not going to do anything of the sort. It is demanding huge amounts of compensation, U.S. military presence to leave the entire region, and to remain in control of the straits. It has indicated in a report that it might cut some slack to the U.S. and offer some sort of token gesture about reducing enriched uranium and capping its missile program — in exchange for all sanctions being lifted.
What is worrying now is that Trump corners himself into a tiny space where he looks even more stupid and incompetent than ever and he starts to see negative coverage on American TV from his own voters. Vain, insecure and deeply deluded, he might be pushed to create another illusion which allows him to regain the kudos that he craves.
Have we all been very naïve about the Truth Social post which claims talks are going on, though? Is it possible the five-day ultimatum is actually another dirty trick and, in reality, he is actually planning an invasion of U.S. marines along Iran’s coastline — and that the perfect time to do this would be on the late afternoon of Friday, March 27th? With the markets closed for the weekend, he might be figuring that this could be the only way to calm the markets: a victorious landing of 2,500 U.S. marines which take or destroy some of Iran’s defence infrastructure, which would only endure an hour or two of fighting before they secure a patch of coastline, all in time for the oil markets to open on Monday morning.
The only problem with this idea, of course, is that it is doomed and that many, if not all of them, will be slaughtered and then he will be looking at a political suicide scenario which eclipses the present one ten times over. Could he be so stupid and so desperate to continue with such a daring raid? When hundreds of them are mowed down, has he factored in a blame strategy? Has he got a general lined up who will take the wrap? Is he prepared to risk the lives of those men simply to claw back a sliver of credibility not only back home but around the world? We cannot overlook the possibility that there is an overwhelming number of Americans who believe he will send ground troops there, and the USS Boxer, with other ships, heading there already is an ominous sign that Trump may well be ready to go with a military option involving an invasion of a part of the coastline which is farther south than the straits and closer to the Pakistan border. The fact that no Israeli IDF soldiers will ever be sent underlines the madness of any such idea, but one has to understand the level of Trump’s desperation and isolation.
Another worrying factor in these turbulent days is Netanyahu taking a bolder decision to go ahead with a nuclear strike, even a smaller one which military buffs like to call ’tactical’. He might do that in defiance of Trump, who is obsessed with the markets and the price of oil. Bibi is happy to wreck the entire global economy just to secure his own agenda with Iran and so is clearly more of an enemy than an ally when it comes to the West’s security or even Trump’s political legacy. And yet, Bibi needs Trump as well, as the U.S. president is the only one who can convince the President of Israel to waive all charges held against Netanyahu. Both players are waiting for the right move to play their ace, although Trump may be thinking of late that he will use his own money to win the midterms and be less reliant on the Jewish-controlled deep state and its rich friends.
