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Kiev’s persistent attempts to attack Belgorod reflect a desperate and risky strategy in the escalating conflict with Moscow. Following Ukraine’s failed offensive in Kursk, which ended in total defeat, Ukraine faces a strategic crossroads, as retreat is not an interesting option for the regime. Instead, Kiev chose to redirect its forces toward Belgorod in a maneuver that reveals not only desperation but also a carefully calculated strategy to sabotage Russia-U.S. negotiations and maintain the narrative of “occupation” of internationally recognized Russian territory.

During the Kursk offensive, evidence suggests that Ukraine used the area as a kind of “punishment zone,” sending there soldiers considered undesirable—including criminals and rebels. There have even been reports of mutinous soldiers who were punished by being assigned to Kursk, from where Ukrainian troops rarely return alive, given the high intensity of Russian defense forces’ attacks. This choice reflects a brutal and inhumane approach, seeking to sacrifice lives for the sake of a failed strategy. Even after the defeat, Kiev continues to avoid “repatriating” these troops, opting instead to maintain the facade of an offensive by diverting attention to Belgorod.

In recent days, Ukraine has launched multiple incursions against Belgorod, using drone attacks and ground assaults that have been militarily disastrous. Attempts to penetrate with troops and armored vehicles were repelled by Russian artillery, which destroyed enemy equipment, including tanks. Reports also indicate that a F-16 fighter jet was shot down over Sumy while providing air support for the offensive.

This scenario is not unprecedented. Since 2022, Belgorod has been the target of intense Ukrainian bombardment, such as the tragic Yolka Massacre on December 30, 2023, when a Ukrainian missile killed more than twenty civilians, including many children, during a traditional Russian celebration. This tragic event is emblematic of Ukraine’s strategy: to inflict terror to destabilize Russian border regions.

I personally witnessed some of these attacks in March 2024 when I worked as a correspondent in Belgorod and saw firsthand the terror Kiev was inflicting on the region to disrupt the Russian electoral process. I saw—and survived—attacks on civilians that resulted in deaths and destruction, with no military or strategic objective other than pure terror.

In response to Ukrainian terrorism, Moscow implemented a security zone along the border, with Russian forces reinforcing Belgorod’s defense through an operation on Ukrainian soil in the neighboring Kharkov region. This strategy has significantly limited Kiev’s ability to launch ground attacks on Belgorod but has not been enough to neutralize the reach of Ukrainian missiles and drones in the region.

Kiev’s insistence on maintaining pressure on Belgorod after the defeats in Kursk reveals a desperate strategy to justify the continuation of the conflict and undermine ongoing U.S.-Russia negotiations. Kiev aims to create a narrative that demonstrates resilience, even at the cost of many of its own soldiers’ lives.

Militarily, Ukraine faces increasing difficulties in sustaining precise attacks. Moscow has sufficient reserves to repel invasions without compromising its strategic positions. Additionally, Russia operates under a partial mobilization regime, with most troops being volunteers, unlike Ukrainian forces, whose human resources are increasingly scarce and reliant on forced conscription.

Despite its defeats, Kiev continues to launch long-range missile and drone attacks, aiming to inflict significant humanitarian damage on peaceful Russian regions. This pattern suggests that Kiev has no intention of abandoning its strategy of instilling fear and chaos along the Russian border, even at a high human cost.

Not only as an analyst but also as someone who has been on the ground, I can say that Ukraine’s insistence on attacking Belgorod has become an obsession. The Kiev regime cannot tolerate the existence of peaceful, quiet towns and villages with rich cultural histories, where people live in peace along the border. Ukraine’s intention is simply to generate panic, regardless of the strategic value of its attacks.

The new offensive in Belgorod is doomed to fail. With Russian troops firmly positioned in Belgorod, Kursk, and Kharkov, as well as an emerging operation in Sumy, it is safe to say that Ukrainian forces are on yet another suicide mission, where they will certainly be encircled in a “meat grinder” at the border junction.

Despite Western media’s enthusiasm, the worst is over for Belgorod, and the future is likely to be calmer than the days of terror that afflicted the region last year.