Accusations against high-ranking officials of being ‘Russian agents’ likely reflect internal political rivalries rather than a fundamental geopolitical shift.
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For some time now, Azerbaijan has been engaged in a debate over ‘Russian agents.’ Particularly in pro-government media outlets, there are claims of a group described as ‘Russian agents.’ It is even alleged that the real reason behind the closure of the ‘Russian House,’ officially shut down due to ‘lack of legal registration,’ was this so-called ‘agent group.’
Notably, this group includes high-ranking figures such as former Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, Ramiz Mehdiyev—one of Heydar Aliyev’s closest associates, known as the ‘gray cardinal’—former National Security Minister Eldar Mahmudov, former Culture Minister Abulfas Garayev, and former Youth and Sports Minister Azad Rahimov. (Note: The term “gray cardinal” refers to individuals who wield significant power and influence behind the scenes but remain relatively obscure in public.)
What happened?
At the beginning of this month, the pro-government Azerbaijani news agency Qafqazinfo reported that ‘a network serving Moscow’s interests had been identified in the country’ and that the activities of Rossotrudnichestvo (Russian House) in Baku had been suspended.
Qafqazinfo Report
The story quickly spread across other pro-government media outlets, with claims that the group in question was receiving orders from Russian intelligence and attempting to influence Azerbaijan’s socio-political processes through an espionage network.
While Qafqazinfo asserted, “The information we have received leaves no doubt that such a structure indeed exists,” there has been no official announcement regarding any formal investigation into the matter.
Another media outlet reinforced the credibility of these allegations with the following statement:
“The fact that these individuals are no longer in office does not mean their connections have been severed. There are still those who receive instructions from Russian intelligence, send misleading messages to our society, and attempt to sow division.”
Speaking to Crossmedia.az, political scientist Natig Miri claimed that Russia’s ‘espionage network’ strategy is not unique to Azerbaijan but is employed in ‘almost all embassies and consulates.’
Crossmedia.az Interview
Miri stated:
“This is not just limited to the political elite. There are such individuals among civil society organizations, media executives, and political analysts as well. In a way, they are trying to ‘wash Russia’s hands clean.’ It is imperative that such individuals, who are present in both the government and society in Azerbaijan, be identified, exposed, and removed from their positions.”
“The writer has no sense”
The accused figures have categorically denied the allegations. Mammadyarov responded to the claims by saying:
“Someone is just being paranoid. The writer has no sense.”
Mammadyarov further questioned:
“I have studied in Ukraine, Russia, and the United States. Does this mean I should be labeled an agent of these countries?”
Manset.az Report
The AZAL Plane Incident and Rising Tensions
Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia were further inflamed when an Embraer 190 aircraft operated by AZAL on the Baku-Grozny route crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25, killing 38 people.
Azerbaijani officials confirmed claims that the aircraft was targeted by a Russian ‘Pantsir-S’ air defense system. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for the incident, this development signaled that the historically volatile relationship between the two countries could escalate into open tension.
Azerbaijan’s ties with Russia are shaped by historical connections and geopolitical dynamics, making them difficult to sever entirely. Their relationship is primarily based on pragmatism and a balance of interests.
However, there are two key factors that differentiate Azerbaijan from other former Soviet states:
- Russia’s role in the Karabakh crisis
- Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership with Israel
Balancing Russia and the West
Like in Georgia and Ukraine, many nationalist and liberal factions in Azerbaijan favor distancing from the Soviet past and strengthening ties with the West. This inclination makes them align with Western-backed political groups.
On the other hand, the Karabakh conflict, which remained a burning issue since the 1990s but was ‘recently’ resolved in favor of Azerbaijan, had long justified Russia’s military presence in the region. Although the Azerbaijani government never strongly opposed Russia’s political and military presence, this has always unsettled nationalist and conservative segments of Azerbaijani society.
As a result, when it comes to relations with Russia, the Azerbaijani government has often used pro-government media and its voter base to convey messages it cannot officially declare. This serves a dual function: managing domestic politics and sending an indirect message. A similar approach is frequently observed in Turkey’s foreign policy.
Relations with Israel
Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership with Israel is closely tied to its geographical proximity to Russia and Iran and its oil resources.
While Azerbaijan is rarely openly framed as an ‘alternative’ to Russia and Iran in the region, its role as a counterbalance is widely acknowledged.
However, despite concerns from Moscow and Tehran, this relationship has not severed Azerbaijan’s ties with Russia. In the first six months of 2024, bilateral trade between Azerbaijan and Russia increased 2.5 times, exceeding $8.3 billion.
Trade Figures
In 2024, Russia accounted for 10.1% of Azerbaijan’s total foreign trade, 4.4% of exports, 34.6% of non-oil/gas exports, and 17.2% of imports.
Trade Data
Cooperation amidst media speculations
While Azerbaijani media continues debating ‘Russian agents,’ President Ilham Aliyev approved an agreement in February 2024 to expand the North-South Corridor, linking Iran and Russia through Azerbaijan. This deal aims to modernize road and railway infrastructure to accommodate rising trade volumes.
Presidential Approval
Meanwhile, in a separate meeting in Tehran three days ago, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Iran agreed to construct the Rasht-Astara railway within Iranian territory.
Railway Agreement
Russian companies continue to play an active role in Azerbaijan’s energy and infrastructure projects, while Baku provides Moscow with transit routes for oil and gas transportation. At the same time, Azerbaijan seeks to reduce its dependence on Russia through alternative energy routes such as the Southern Gas Corridor and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
From both the Russian and Azerbaijani perspectives, their relationship is shaped by necessity and mutual interests. Looking at the numbers, the ‘Russian influence’ debate in Azerbaijan appears more targeted at domestic audiences, and accusations against high-ranking officials of being ‘Russian agents’ likely reflect internal political rivalries rather than a fundamental geopolitical shift.
