By Carl-Alexandre ROBYN

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For our small Kingdom, the balance between collective solidarity and budgetary sustainability is increasingly difficult to maintain. And let us not forget that Belgium’s geographical position protects it.

An opinion by Carl-Alexandre Robyn, consulting engineer in startup valuation

Should we dismantle our social model in favor of a marginal reinforcement of our military security? No! For one very simple reason: our national security is de facto naturally guaranteed by Belgium’s exceptional geographical situation. Indeed, for Russian tanks to take possession of the Grand-Place in Brussels, they would first have to cross the inviolable territories of all NATO member countries surrounding our Kingdom—something practically impossible, whether by air, sea, or land. Even their missiles would have to fly over the airspace of Belgium’s neighboring countries, all of which are NATO members.

Moreover, what is the reality of the collective defense of all allies? What degree of protection is actually offered to the Belgian population? What is the validity of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty? What is this commitment worth in the eyes of an American president whose statements continually cast doubt on the value of Article 5?

Admittedly, we would lose some infrastructure investments and a few thousand jobs linked to the management of NATO headquarters and SHAPE. But this would represent a loss of at most 300 million euros annually. Meanwhile, NATO’s requirement that Belgium allocate 5% of its GDP to defense would impose an additional financial burden of several billion euros (between 24 and 32 billion € each year) on taxpayers (individuals and businesses)—along with the significant destruction of entire sections of our social security (pensions, unemployment, healthcare…).

Sublime Location

Some claim that “alone, without allies in Europe and NATO, Belgium would not be capable of protecting its population.” Well, let us remind them that Austria and Switzerland—two European countries not part of NATO—do not ask themselves the same existential questions.

NATO membership does not protect us much more than our sublime location already does. On the contrary, it obliges us to participate indirectly, if not directly, in any war NATO decides to wage—as it is currently doing, in violation of its own statutes, in Ukraine.

In reality, our cherished NATO membership card (whose fee will now rise to 5% of GDP, even as our country is already over-indebted and the population overtaxed) will give us the right to spend more on whatever war NATO imposes on us. And for this, the government is ready to sacrifice entire sections of our social model—the last cement of Belgian society.

What will pensioners, the unemployed, the disabled, the sick, and the jobless do if they are further impoverished? They will have little left to lose and will express their anger, likely joined by the working classes who will also find themselves in increasing difficulty.

Growing Cost

The growing cost of Belgian defense via NATO is entirely disproportionate to the benefits obtained. The massive increase in spending (around 6,000 € per household each year) will not be offset by strategic or political advantages: on the international stage, Belgium’s status within NATO and its influence remain “paltry” since we are a Lilliputian country with a friendly but minuscule army.

Our Kingdom plays only a small active role in coordinating joint operations and exercises, giving it a small voice (barely audible) in the Alliance’s major strategic orientations. Does Belgium, as a result, have a better diplomatic and military position on the international stage than Switzerland or Austria?

The economic fallout is, at best, uncertain. Studies show that the economic impact of such spending increases is limited for a small country like Belgium—especially if purchases are made abroad (notably in the United States for armaments like the F-35). Non-defense sectors, such as education or energy, often offer better economic returns.

For our small Kingdom, the balance between collective solidarity and budgetary sustainability is increasingly difficult to maintain. Moreover, NATO does not need Belgium, given the substantial strengthening of the German and Polish armies and the accession of two new members—Sweden and Finland—both highly strategic due to their geographical positioning.

Risk of Instability

In summary, the rapid and massive increase in defense spending, without a parallel rise in revenue, presents a high risk of political and social instability in Belgium—due to pressure on debt, cuts to social programs, and the fragility of the current political context.

Belgium is governed by a fragile coalition, already marked by regional tensions between Flanders and Wallonia. A rapid increase in defense spending to 5% of GDP would represent a major shift in national priorities, risking internal disagreements over resource allocation and the protection of social programs.

Belgium’s social spending represents 29% of GDP and is a pillar of national consensus. Redirecting a significant portion of the budget toward defense would likely require reducing these benefits, which could erode public support and provoke protests or social unrest—particularly among groups dependent on these services.

Regional Differences

Raising defense spending to 5% of GDP would lead to a substantial increase in public debt (already 104.7% of GDP in 2024, with a projection of nearly 119% by 2029), complicating budget management and potentially exacerbating political disagreements over how to finance this effort.

Indeed, the country’s two major regions do not benefit equally from defense spending: the geographical distribution of defense-related industries, military bases, and jobs could favor one region at the expense of the other. If one region feels it is bearing a disproportionate burden or that its social priorities (healthcare, education) are being sacrificed, this could fuel regional resentment.

Original article:  lalibre.be