The West is learning that it can’t trust al-Sharaa as most of his CNN makeover and its gestures have proved to be worthless in the shifting sands of the region and its geopolitics.

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“No one has the right to erase another group. These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them”. These are the words of Syria’s new dictator who was installed by Turkey, is now run by Israel and America and feared by regional Arab leaders. Ahmed al-Sharaa was speaking about the protection of dozens of Syria’s minority groups.

Since December of last year, many have feared that his words were empty. They have feared that ethnic groups like the Alawites who fought hard with Assad against all Sunni extremist groups in Syria leading up to his fall, would be the first target for reprisals. And of course they were right.

But now the Druze are also under attack, as they too were broadly aligned with Assad and have old scores to settle with al-Sharaa’s men. Yet this time it’s different as Israel comes to their support and in recent days has actually done the unthinkable to send a message to Syria’s new leader: bombed government and military installations in Damascus. The message is clear: we are running Syria now and call the shots.

Netanyahu has good reason to fear the clashes between Bedouin groups and the Druze. Firstly, there is an important Druze minority in Israel which is drafted into the army and is largely supportive of the Zionist cause. For Israel to allow Druze to be slaughtered so close to the Israel border would give Netanyahu a number of problems. There is also the broader point that Netanyahu sees the Druze in the region – Syria, Lebanon and Israel – as a potentially useful ally.

The real worry for Israel is that a new civil war erupts with minorities all ganging up against al-Sharaa’s bloodthirsty henchmen who were of course originally HTS extremists. Contrary to popular belief held among some analysts, it is unlikely that Israel wants to put resources into a new war when it is preparing for a longer one with Iran and is already stretched to its limits elsewhere like Gaza or Lebanon. The honeymoon between Netanyahu and al-Sharaa is certainly over and now the former needs to show the latter who’s wearing the pants.

However, some analysts underplay the support Netanyahu may have for the Druze and see a different strategy at play with the Damascus bombing.

“The thuggish Israeli attacks on Damascus are wildly misunderstood by everyone” argues Syrian journalist Hassan I. Hassan, owner of Newlines mag. “It’s not a continuation of the old Israeli policy or connected to a policy to defend Druze rebels against a Damascus takeover of the province. It’s more likely a way to dictate terms amid negotiations” he explains.

Charles Lister is also cynical of how the bombing is presented and worries that the Druze may well be slaughtered when they are in the middle of all the crossfire. “Israel claims to be striking Syria in order to defend a minority, but in so doing, they are putting that minority in a far tighter and dangerous corner than they were in beforehand” he says. “There’s no strategy at play here – desperately short-sighted”.

Is there any strategy? While Israel’s and America’s vision of Syria is slightly different there can be little doubt that Netanyahu regards the annexing of Syria as an essential step towards weakening and finally defeating Iran. The fall of Assad was a crucial step and the spoils of war must be kept for the victor. A recent warning by America’s ambassador in Lebanon to the Lebanese that if they don’t disarm Hezbollah, then Syria will simply swallow up that tiny country was a poignant warning which needs to be heeded. ‘Greater Israel’ is the real plan and al-Sharaa needs to be tamed and shown that he can just as easily be replaced as he was installed. It was a mistake of his to allow his troops with heavy equipment to move south to Sweida and attack the Druze.

Although reports indicate that it was Druze armed militias who were responsible for the escalation, such skirmishes cannot be allowed to get out of control and become a free for all bloodbath with al-Sharaa’s forces settling old scores. Israel seems to be ready to begin hitting Syria’s army as way of taming it and its leader.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said after the airstrike in a post on X that the “painful blows have begun.”

Syria’s Defense Ministry had earlier blamed militias in the Druze-majority area of Sweida for violating a ceasefire agreement that had been reached, causing Syrian army soldiers to return fire. It said they were “adhering to rules of engagement to protect residents, prevent harm, and ensure the safe return of those who left the city back to their homes.”

Whether the Syrian army is telling the truth or not, Israel’s grand plan for Syria is not for it to return to civil war as this would weaken its main role, to provide a buffer between Iran and Lebanon and to cast a shadow over Iraq’s Hezbollah militias. If al-Sharaa doesn’t comply though, Netanyahu is ready to move in more troops and do a second run of ‘operation grapes of wrath’ which took place in Lebanon in 1996 under Shimon Peres and fill the south of Syria with Israeli soldiers and tanks. The most crackpot idea in Trump’s second term, to support the most brutal terrorist in Syria and Iraq, to become a western surf against Iran, was always a shaky idea. The West is learning that it can’t trust al-Sharaa as most of his CNN makeover and its gestures have proved to be worthless in the shifting sands of the region and its geopolitics.