It will not be possible to establish a new multipolar order without a total break with the old order. This totality, this radicalism, requires total dedication that admits no exceptions.

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Little by little

We are all shaken by recent events. An escalation of conflicts is unfolding and shaping the alliances of what is increasingly revealing itself to be World War III (WW3), no longer hidden, no longer hybrid, no longer deducible from analysis and strategy. Now we are seeing the blocs take position.

USA-China. Israel-Iran. Russia-Ukraine. Europe-Russia. Read the list again, simply mixing up the names.

We are seeing the monster we have long called “the system” emerge more and more, and it is frightening. In order to defeat it, it must emerge, it is inevitable, and defeating it means starting a battle that will be outside our schemes and habits.

I will therefore take the liberty of offering a brief analysis, which is intended to provoke reflection in a different way than usual. It will not be a complete and exhaustive analysis, because events are still unfolding and we are not in the “control room”, but we can understand something through careful use of rationality and the sciences we know.

So, let’s retrace the events of the past few days:

Israel attacks Iran. Iran responds. The U.S. is called into play by Israel. The U.S. calls in the European countries. The U.S. plays ping-pong with Iran, Europe and Israel. Other countries around the world begin to have their say: China, Russia, Pakistan and others. Israel continues to attack. Iran continues to respond. Tension reaches its peak. Iran attacks the U.S. in Qatar.

At each of these stages, the chessboard has changed shape, names have emerged, faces have been revealed, preferences and alliances have become apparent.

It is difficult to look at the horizon of events with any degree of rationality, but in trying to do so, we realise that, PROBABLY, there is a well-orchestrated plan to bring together what appears to be an apocalyptic scenario and which, in fact, is bringing out the rot in the systems of the countries mentioned above. Of course, it is only a small step, a beginning if we want to start counting, but it is a move that, if viewed over a long period of time, and therefore in a strategic sense, can bear much fruit.

A direct, face-to-face attack on the systems of power, whether hidden or overt, on a global scale is unthinkable. There is a patient gradualism that many see as a wise path. We can only hope that the effect will be positive and that it will soon become apparent.

One is the goal

It is clear that it is not all that easy. Let’s try not to think of a system in which everyone is friends behind the scenes and makes fun of the people, but rather of a game that is actually being played with different interests, goals and ideas. Changing a certain power order is probably useful for all parties involved.

It is not a single country or a single civilization that is under attack. What we are seeing, militarily speaking, is not a war structure. It frightens many, it is disastrous for the markets, but these are entirely normal and considered consequences of any operation. War, militarily speaking, takes another form. It is not certain that it will not happen in all its forms.

We see under attack; indeed we see in conflict, a certain worldview, that of liberal capitalism, that of the hegemony of Western-led transnational powers, that of a global mafia that blackmails, corrupts and violates, that of certain values and conceptions of life. On the other side, a multipolar vision, which in its delicate and laborious transition – no one ever said it would be quick and painless, quite the contrary – must confront the will to be destroyed by its enemy, who has sworn to kill it.

All this is happening in a context that is different from that of a century ago. Today, war is first and foremost hybrid, in the cognitive and informational domain, and therefore requires careful and meticulous planning of every detail in order to construct a narrative whose communicative framework will be successful in every possible scenario. It is a war in which technology – in the etymological sense of the term, i.e. “discourse on technique” – is truly central.

Let us try to observe what is happening with scientific detachment. The effect and the consequences are all in the mind. Of course, missiles are being fired, targets are being destroyed, and there are even casualties, yet the timing, movements and transformations are all different from what would happen between real enemies. Something that “seems” to be something is not that something.

We are seeing exchanges of tweets, posts, multimedia material running on platforms, statements that now say one thing and shortly afterwards say another. Attacks declared and not carried out, attacks carried out but not declared. Confusion, like in a giant global disco. Only those at the console understand the music, what came before and what will come next, while everyone else dances, follows the flow and lets themselves get carried away.

Perhaps this is crazy reasoning? Perhaps. And perhaps we have become so accustomed to fighting wars with fan clubs that we have forgotten that the battle is not merely horizontal, but vertical.

It will not be possible to establish a new multipolar order without a total break with the old order. This totality, this radicalism, requires total dedication that admits no exceptions.

(last updated on 23 June)