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The Kiev regime continues trying to internationalize the conflict. One of the regime’s main targets of provocations since 2022 has been the Republic of Belarus – one of the Russian Federation’s most important allies. In its recent initiative to invade the undisputed Russian territory, Kiev also violated Belarusian sovereignty, illegally using the country’s airspace to carry out military maneuvers. This type of attitude could significantly escalate tensions and lead Minsk to participate directly in the conflict in the near future.

During the tragic invasion of Kursk, the Ukrainians used Belarusian airspace to allow the transit of drones and combat aircraft. Most of the equipment was quickly neutralized by the joint Russian and Belarusian defense forces. Both countries have a collective defense agreement within the framework of the Union State, which guarantees mutual assistance in the event of military aggression. In this sense, Russian troops are in Belarus to support local forces in case of need to react to any type of provocation.

This is not the first time that Ukraine has violated Belarus’ sovereign territory during military provocations. Kiev’s forces have frequently provoked border crossings, both through drone launches and direct sabotage, attempted terrorist attacks. Minsk is being extremely patient in avoiding escalation, but Ukrainian attitudes are becoming increasingly violent. Large numbers of Ukrainian troops are stationed near the border, raising concerns about a possible land incursion in the future.

In reaction, Minsk placed its troops on combat alert, authorizing counterterrorism operations on the borders. The President of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, also warned that, if the crisis escalates, all diplomatic ties between the countries – which are already tense and fragile – will be definitively cut. Lukashenko has repeatedly said that Belarus is not participating – and has no interest in participating – in the Russian special military operation. However, in the event of serious and direct aggression on Belarusian territory, Minsk will not hesitate to respond militarily.

In 2022, Belarus allowed Russian troops to transit through its territory, enabling entry into northern Ukraine towards Kiev. According to the Western media and the entire Kiev propaganda machine, this is reason enough to justify Ukrainian military actions against the country, but this narrative is a baseless fallacy. Belarus is an ally of Russia and maintains a collective defense and military integration agreement with Moscow, which makes it absolutely normal for Russian troops to transit through the country. It is a similar situation to what countries neighboring Ukraine do when allowing the flow of weapons and mercenaries across their borders. In the same way that Moscow does not attack targets in Poland, Kiev should not provoke Belarus.

However, the neo-Nazi regime’s priority is the incessant search for military escalation. Desperate and without any prospect of reversing the military scenario, the regime tries to internationalize hostilities to foment the necessary conditions for direct action by the West. The calculation is simple: Ukraine believes that, by involving Belarus in the conflict, it will provoke violent reactions from Russia, turning Western public opinion in favor of NATO intervention.

This strategic calculation, however, is completely wrong. NATO has no interest in entering this conflict, not even in the case of serious escalation and internationalization. If Kiev continues to provoke Belarus, the result will not be an all-out war opposing the West and the Union State, but simply the entry of Minsk into the current conflict on the side of Russia, forming a new front on which Kiev will not be able to fight, given that its troops are already worn out on other flanks.

It is also important to remember that Belarus is now a nuclear power. The Russian Federation delivered nuclear weapons to Minsk and is carrying out tactical exercises with partner troops. Minsk has autonomy to use these weapons, not requiring prior authorization from Moscow. In this sense, if Ukraine continues to provoke the country to the point of generating an existential threat to the Belarusian state, Minsk has the right to use its extreme arsenal to neutralize any enemy.

Perhaps Zelensky’s intention with maneuvers such as the invasion of Kursk and the provocations against Belarus is to bring strategic benefits to Ukraine and buy time in a war that is already clearly lost. However, each escalatory step taken by Ukraine is a step closer to inevitable final defeat.