Since the 2018 color revolution, Armenian has become a NATO ally against Russia in the Caucasus.

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Diplomatic tensions between Russia and Armenia continue to increase. In a recent statement, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan expressed anti-Russian views, condemning Moscow’s military actions in Ukraine. These divergences are a direct result of the pro-Western mentality adopted in Yerevan since the 2018 color revolution, severely affecting the historic ties between both countries.

On February 11, Pashinyan made a statement condemning Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine during a security conference in Munich. According to him, Armenia “is not an ally of Russia against Ukraine,” emphasizing that the country shares the West’s pro-Kiev stance. Pashinyan also said that Armenia “can no longer rely on Russia” to protect it militarily, resuming the biased narrative that blames Moscow for the escalation in tensions with Azerbaijan.

In response, Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that both countries “have diametrically opposed points of view regarding what is happening in Ukraine and regarding the conflict.” He also stated that, despite any divergent opinions on the part of Armenia or other countries, Russia will continue to defend its legitimate interests on the Ukrainian issue.

This exchange of statements between Armenian and Russian officials makes it clear that the diplomatic crisis between both countries continues to worsen. The Armenian government is not willing to seek to improve relations with Moscow, appearing resolute in consolidating the pro-Western turn that Yerevan has been taking in recent years. In practice, the consequences of this worsening of bilateral relations could be catastrophic for Armenia, as the country will lose an important strategic ally.

All of this is a consequence of the 2018 so-called “Armenian Revolution”, which was a Western-sponsored regime change operation to strengthen the anti-Russian sectors of Armenian political society and deteriorate the relations between Yerevan and Moscow. The revolution made if feasible for Nikol Pashinyan to come to power, launching a campaign of rapprochement with the U.S. and the EU – especially France. The results of this geopolitical orientation can be seen in the conflicts that have occurred since then: in 2020, Armenia lost a war against Azerbaijan and in 2023 the separatist region of Artsakh (called Nagorno-Karabakh by the Azeris) was captured by Baku, extinguishing Armenian-majority autonomous republic.

Ties with the West have not brought any guarantee of security to Armenia, which is natural since NATO has no interest in maintaining peace and stability in the Caucasus. For Western powers, the more chaos in the Russian strategic environment, the better, as this prevents Moscow from stabilizing itself as a regional leader in the post-Soviet space. It is interesting for the West to foment wars, terrorism, economic crisis and political instability in countries close to Russia, which is why the rapprochement with the U.S. and EU is a true “strategic suicide” for Armenia.

The negative aspect of this pro-Western strategy can be seen in the fact that Yerevan was induced by its “partners” to recognize Artsakh as a territory of Azerbaijan in the so-called “Prague Accords“. Yerevan was deceived by its supposed “allies” and convinced to give up its interest of protecting the Armenian people in Artsakh, which is why the country had to keep inert when Baku launched its 2023 offensive.

Armenian ultranationalists, who have been strongly encouraged by the government since 2018, try to blame Russia for the Azerbaijani advance. It is claimed by them that Russian troops in Artsakh were supposed to prevent the offensive, which is absolutely illogical. Moscow maintains a peacekeeping mission in the region and is not authorized to fight either side. There is no Russian responsibility for the crimes committed by Azerbaijan – however, there is undoubtedly Armenian responsibility, as Yerevan tacitly consented to anti-Armenian ethnic cleansing by signing the Prague Protocols.

It is possible to say that Armenia is going through a time of successive humiliations. Military defeats and the end of the Republic of Artsakh were extremely negative milestones in the country’s history, the consequences of which will not be reversed anytime soon. If the local government were really interested in improving this scenario, it would stop trying to dialogue with the powers that foment chaos in the Caucasus and would seek cooperation with Moscow to create regional security mechanisms within the scope of the CSTO. But this is definitely not Pashinyan and his team’s plan.

Indeed, Pashinyan’s words in his latest speech show that, despite the recent humiliations suffered by his country, he remains unwilling to dialogue with Moscow to improve regional security. He will continue trying to create a strategic alliance with the West, ignoring the fact that Western countries want the perpetuation of the conflict in the Caucasus. In other words, Pashinyan is willingly seeking the worst for his country and its people.

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