Whether it is in the Ukraine, Western Sahara or now Taiwan, what we are witnessing are the early stages of a poorly construed PR campaign which will, in fact, reinstate Trump.
Whether it is in the Ukraine, Western Sahara or now Taiwan, what we are witnessing are the early stages of a poorly construed PR campaign which will, in fact, reinstate Trump.
Joe Biden confirming that he will run as a presidential candidate in 2024 is disturbing on a number of levels. Chiefly, that it will keep the American people locked into a voting system which is entirely based on personalities resorting to the ‘voting out’ of one over the other – rather than a more intelligent, less binary preferred method of choosing a president. The same we have just seen in France with Le Pen beaten by Macron who will be grateful for the votes he wouldn’t normally have got, if it were not those voting against Le Pen.
In the case of Biden, it absolutely guarantees that Trump will run himself once again. This, in itself, is a divisive point as many will wonder if Trump came back, would he be the same as he was before on foreign policy or will he be bolder? Despite what many might think, his track record on foreign policy was very much despondent, even cowardly some might argue. Although he pulled America out of the JCPOA Iran deal, he decided most emphatically not to go to war with the regime in Tehran when provoked. Similarly, despite the war of words with China, Trump was not at all gung-ho with Beijing compared to the Biden administration.
And so, will a calmer, more sober approach to tackling America’s foreign policy black holes – Ukraine, China and the Middle East in general – be a winning ticket for Trump?
The former U.S. president recently said in the press that if Russia made threats to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, he would counter that threat with a new one from the U.S. But knowing Trump, we need to read this in the correct light. Making counter threats is showing courage in the face of the enemy, but actually going ahead with the threat is something entirely different. He made the same threats against Iran after it downed a U.S. drone in the straits of Hormuz, but in the event (the summer of 2019) backed down at the last moment knowing that a long war which would cost many American lives was simply not worth it. Previously he had initiated two strikes in Syria against military targets of the Assad regime, following what he believed were chemical weapon attacks.
He would later order a drone strike on Iran’s top commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq in July 2020, which many would argue was a calculated, rational move in retaliation to the U.S. drone being shot down in what was at the time called an act of war. Smart move. He was clearly briefed that the Soleimani hit would not mean war and would earn him some valuable points, both in the region and back home.
Biden’s policies in the region are similar to Trump’s in that he doesn’t want the U.S. to engage in any conflict in the region but remain a backseat driver.
Where Biden’s policies are different is on other parts of the world where the mantra by Obama that we should never underestimate Biden’s abilities to “fuck up” should be noted. The war in Ukraine, which is most certainly a conflict between Russia and the West, is largely about America’s meddling in internal politics since 2014, when Biden was Vice President and an obsession with trying to oust Putin – which no one, not even Trump’s strongest enemies, can claim is his.
Biden’s “America is back” message is starting to be understood for what it is. An old man who has a lot to prove with little ability to pull it off. Around the world, we watch Antony Blinken jet into places, make bold speeches and then leave only to see the tensions that were previously there between regional foes deepen. Case in point, his recent trip to Algeria where he called for the government to turn its back on Russia and join the western sphere was met literally 48 hours later by the news that Russia would support Algeria’s military activities in the disputed territory of Western Sahara, held by Algeria’s arch enemy Morocco. Great job.
And now we read reports of the Biden administration beefing up its military support in Taiwan, a country which if it were to be part of an attempted takeover by China would have seismic consequences way beyond Ukraine. Does such a strategy work in the west’s favour and push China back? Biden doesn’t know. No one does. But to play such a risky game of Russian roulette with the world’s semiconductor industry alone shows us that Biden is not only suffering from early stages of dementia but also of grand delusion. To provoke China in such a way is just madness and Beijing may now well join the growing group of countries in the Middle East all planning and preparing for Trump to take office and return to a less turbulent world order. Such insane policies by Biden are merely fuelling Trump’s campaign which he won’t even need to write himself as it’s created for him to “save” the world and America.
