Moscow is getting more oil revenue and Ukraine will get fewer defensive weapons.

By Ted SNIDER

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Nobody wins at war. In the war on Iran, fought without legal justification and without good reason, bringing devastation to lives, the economy, international law, and the environment, there are certainly no winners. But, though there are no winners in the long run, if there is one country that benefits in the short run, it is Russia.

Diplomatically, Ukraine seems to have won some benefit by demonstrating its value as a partner to the West. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has offered to help countries facing Iranian drones that were the prototype for a class of Russian drone that Ukraine has so much experience facing.

“I would suggest the following,” Zelensky said. “Leaders of the Middle East have great relations with Russians. They can ask Russians to implement a month-long ceasefire. In exchange, we will send our best operators of drone interceptors to the Middle East countries.” Zelensky says that eleven countries have requested Ukrainian support and that some “have already been met with concrete decisions and specific support.” He says that Ukraine has sent “interceptor drones and a team of drone experts to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan” and “professional, fully equipped teams” to Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.”

Even here, though, Zelensky seems unable to offer altruistic help as a partner. The offer is linked not only to a ceasefire, but to reciprocal help to Ukraine: “Ukraine is ready to respond positively to requests from those who help us protect the lives of Ukrainians and the independence of Ukraine.” Giving help is contingent on getting help: “Ukraine helps partners who help ensure our security and protect the lives of our people.” He added that he has raised “the issue of missiles for air-defense systems that we currently lack.”

Though Kiev may be able to sell some technology and offer some help, Ukrainians are themselves under frequent drone and missile attacks, and it is not clear they can truly afford to spare drones, interceptors, or personnel. Zelensky’s offer may be as much an attempt to retain Trump’s attention and enhance Ukraine’s perceived value as it is an offer of substantive help.

Even here, Russia may prove the more valuable actor. On Monday, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin held his first phone call with Trump since the war on Iran began. Putin reportedly “expressed several thoughts aimed at a quick political and diplomatic end to the Iranian conflict, including contacts that have taken place with leaders of Gulf states, the president of Iran and leaders of other countries.”

It is not known exactly what Putin said, but, the same day, Trump spoke of the war for the first time as a “short-term excursion” that is “very complete.” The next day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “Russia is ready to provide any help it can to reduce the ⁠tensions in the Middle ⁠East” and that the proposals discussed on the phone “are still on the table.” Russia is the rare country that enjoys good relations with Iran, Israel, and the Gulf nations, and arguably even with the Trump administration.

Russia is benefitting from the war, not only diplomatically, but economically. The war in Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off 20 percent of the world’s oil exports. That has sent oil prices up, pumping money into the Russian economy. Russian oil is in demand and does not go through the Strait of Hormuz. The need to keep oil flowing to the global market and keep prices in the U.S. down with midterm elections coming up has moved the White House to scale back sanctions on Russia. After punishing India, one of the largest consumers of Russian oil since the war in Ukraine began, with sanctions and tariffs in an effort to compel it to stop buying Russian oil, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a temporary waiver, which could be extended, allowing India to buy Russian oil. It also issued a “general license allowing transactions with the German branch of Russia’s Rosneft oil company.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the U.S. “may unsanction other Russian oil.”

But the biggest way Russia may benefit is militarily. The U.S. and the Gulf countries have been forced to fire an incredible number of interceptors to defend against Iranian missiles and drones. The U.S. is rapidly expending defensive weapons that would have been sent to Ukraine to fight its war. Zelensky says more Patriot missiles were fired in the first days of the Iran war than Ukraine has fired in the entirety of their war. The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas says “there are defense capabilities that are needed in Ukraine now moving also to the Middle East.” Zelensky has acknowledged that “we understand that a long war… and the intensity of the fighting will affect the amount of air defence equipment we receive.”

Jennifer Kavanagh, a military analyst at Defense Priorities, told The American Conservative that “the war in Iran will disrupt the U.S. ability to support Ukraine” and that “the biggest and most immediate impact will be on air defense” since “Ukraine depends almost entirely on the United States for air defense, especially Patriot air interceptors and AMRAAMs,” referring to Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles. She says supplies of Patriot missiles should be expected “to be disrupted as soon as the end of this month.”

The war on Iran has, perhaps more forcefully than before, exposed the hypocrisy of American hegemony, facilitating the path to Russia’s preferred vision of multipolarity. It is hard to see why Russia’s assault on Ukraine is wrong while America’s war on Iran is right. Europe and Canada, so quick to arm Ukraine, barely stirred when the U.S. assaulted Iran. However, the war on Iran sparked outrage and protest across the Global South.

The war on Iran has also pushed the pause button on diplomatic talks in Ukraine. Zelensky says that “because of the situation with Iran, the necessary signals for a trilateral meeting haven’t come yet,” and that they will resume “as soon as “the security situation and the broader political context” permit.

And finally, Ukraine may be worried that Putin’s promise not to kill Zelensky expired with the U.S. greenlighting the assassination of national leaders with the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

No one will win as a result of this war, including, in the long run, Russia. But the loss of interceptor missiles, the oil money flowing into Russia’s war economy, and the pause on negotiations could not come at a worse time for Ukraine, especially if an expected springtime offensive by Russia is coming soon.

Original article: theamericanconservative.com