Macron’s text message seems to signal the end of NATO and the special relationship put on ice.
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The new contempt that Trump has shown for the French president, who contacted him proposing a G7 summit in Paris, is worrying on many levels. But it seems to signal the end of NATO and the special relationship put on ice.
There are very few certainties in political life, but we can now safely assume that President Emmanuel Macron will never again send Donald Trump a private text message. This extraordinary episode – Trump posting the message on social media and then mocking the French leader – has sent shockwaves across European capitals and is revealing on multiple levels.
For Macron and France, it shows a new level of brazen contempt, which will further erode whatever political capital he has left and leave many French commentators asking whether America is still an ally at all.
For the rest of Europe, the message and its humiliating reception are telling. They show that Trump has given up on EU countries as potential partners in his broader vision for America. Macron’s text read like a plea, suggesting a last-minute G7 meeting and a special dinner – complete with the pomp and ceremony Trump enjoyed in London. Two main points in the message reveal the core European concerns: Greenland and Iran. Have European leaders seen solid intelligence suggesting Trump is close to a major strike against Iran? Likely. Do they believe their diplomatic skills could surpass those of Trump’s advisors in talking him out of it, given the unthinkable implications of an Iranian retaliation? Also likely.
Yet they are misreading Trump’s character and motivations. Macron is not the only one sending pathetic late-night messages after his diplomatic corps has shown its limitations. Trump recently wrote to the Norwegians, whining about their failure to award him a Nobel Peace Prize and hinting he would be less inclined to pursue peace efforts without their appreciation – falsely claiming to have stopped eight wars worldwide.
The truth is Trump has grown tired of courting relations that get him nowhere. Leaking such messages will simply make any EU leader wary of contacting him – exactly what he wants as he pushes ahead with his most radical ideas, namely Greenland and, arguably, Iran.
These two gambits, like Macron’s message, underline a point few EU leaders wish to accept: the United States is far from an ally if it proceeds alone with regime change in Iran and an invasion of Greenland. Recent troop deployments by EU countries to the Arctic underscore this concern. Some might even ask: could Europeans find themselves at war with the US? Trump’s response has been equally worrying: tariffs for those who oppose him. A standoff in Greenland proves that his hints to Norway – that he is prepared to dismantle NATO to serve American interests – are very real and genuinely unsettling for Europe.
Thus, the leaked text underlines a singular, chilling point: America is no longer a friend or ally and could even become an enemy under the Trump administration. In other words, all bets are off, and the EU must now consider a NATO without the US. This idea is not as far-fetched as it sounds. In Afghanistan in 2007, senior US officers told me that America had 8,000 soldiers “unattached” to the NATO-led ISAF mission. “Just in case things get a little outta hand,” one general explained. He meant that the US operated a dual command structure in case NATO partners challenged American dominance. Perhaps this is the future for Europeans – who will no doubt revive the old concept of an “EU army” mere hours after the ink dries on reports of the Macron–Trump exchange.
Macron, of course, may not grasp the full significance. The deluded leader believes he speaks for the entire EU, even when such stunts leave him publicly diminished. But he is not alone. The trio of France, the UK, and Germany have never had weaker, more pathetic leaders in their entire histories. We are at a new low, and Trump is all too happy to remind us.
A few new certainties now present themselves: the demise of NATO, with the US as its chief partner, is almost inevitable. This could trigger a crisis of confidence in the entire EU project, with German far-right groups, for the first time, openly calling for Germany to leave the Brussels bloc. A trade war is also likely, with increased European tariffs on US goods, and a more pragmatic narrative on Ukraine may take centre stage. In recent days, more EU leaders have called for dialogue with Russia – Macron’s text hinted at this too – so the Ukraine war could become a tool for Europe to navigate the new US crisis as it sees fit.
Many will conclude that Trump is, at best, an old man in crisis – or, at worst, someone losing his mind.
