Putin’s move to bring Morocco closer was a stroke of genius as it calms tensions and creates an environment of dialogue.
Join us on Telegram
, Twitter
, and VK
.
Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su
Finally, as we head towards Christmas during the first year of Trump’s second term, it would seem that the Moroccan elite can sleep well at night knowing for sure that there is no risk whatsoever of Trump turning the clock back on his position of Western Sahara. But they know this not through Trump’s actions or statements, or even those of Israel (which is de facto paid lobbyist for the Moroccans in DC) but through Russia. Yes, that’s right, you read correctly. Finally, Russia has pulled a rabbit out of the hat and offered the Moroccans a supporting vote on the Sahara, hedging their bets in the region, given their strong ties to Algeria. It was as though there was a race on between Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy of sorts, to get an unofficial peace deal in place between Rabat and Algiers. And despite Algiers rejecting Morocco’s own proposal on how both countries could cool down their military spending, Putin’s move to bring Morocco closer was a stroke of genius as it calms tensions and creates an environment of dialogue.
During a press briefing in mid-October, Lavrov said Russia is ready to support Morocco’s Autonomy Plan for Western Sahara if all members of the United Nations Security Council agree.
“The Sahara issue, which has been on the table for 50 years, was initially heading toward a referendum, but the situation later changed,” Lavrov said. “The Moroccan proposal for autonomy falls within the framework of self-determination. This option can be a solution as long as it is provided for by the United Nations and in line with [UN] resolutions.”
He added, “If it is acceptable to everyone, it is acceptable to us as well.”
And so, quite suddenly, all the ambiguity about relations between Morocco and Russia disappears. Relations are back to pre-Ukraine war where both sides hammered out an association agreement in 2018 – with talk which followed that of Russia building water desalination plants and nuclear power stations. At the drop of a hat, Trump’s man in the region, has been outfoxed by Russia with Morocco now standing to gain on a grand scale in the years to come. Russia is a hugely important ally for Morocco as Rabat’s ‘non-aligned’ status just got an upgrade. Now, you could call Morocco ‘super non-aligned’ while it plays both dutiful wife or willing mistress to both U.S. and Russia concurrently. Quite a feat of diplomacy which Nourad Bourita should be congratulated for.
And yet, in many ways, it could be argued that Morocco has better relations with Moscow than with Washington and much of its ambitions will be linked to this relationship and what fruits it can provide. Secondly, with Russia behind Rabat, Morocco will be able to play the Russia card when it sees fit for whatever benefits which present themselves. It’s not quite the same thing with the Americans as, arguably, Rabat has no real, tangible working relationship with Washington, but choses to use Israel as its chief lobbyist there through the powerful AIPAC. The steadfastness of this ephemeral ménage à trois is hard to predict and certainly, the Moroccans feel short changed by what Israel has produced for them to date.
But being closer now to Russia can only be a good thing and a smart move as Trump now has two superpowers facing him when Morocco is discussed, both Israel and Russia. Much has recently been made of Russia’s move, with one media outlet pointing out that Moscow now will have a balancing act in the region as it struggles to keep good relations with Algeria, one of its top customers for Russian-made weapons, it should be noted. But those same pundits fail to see the irony of the statement as it is Morocco now who is the champion of manipulating its non-aligned status with the US which surely can only last as long as Trump remains in office – or might be shattered if he has a mega tantrum as he did with China recently. This is truly the definition of a ‘special relationship’ when one partner allows the other to fraternize, flirt and even share the duvet with one’s adversaries without the row in the morning back home.
Russia also made a smart move though. It showed that it’s a superpower and such powers can switch countries aggressive policies on and off at the drop of a hat, but it is also worth noting that Russia’s influence in the continent just grows and grows. When Lavrov tours Africa, it’s like you are witnessing a mega star in front of the continent’s leaders. When Witkoff arrives, it reminds people of that video footage of Germany’ former foreign minister arriving in an Asian capital, coming out of the plane and looking hard for even one dignitary to meet her. Russia moving closer to Morocco is a win-win as both countries profit from one another’s global relations and Morocco for many is seen as a good platform to reach out to francophone African countries. But if Morocco says to the Americans “we do love you, but we won’t accept you telling us who we can make friends with” then one has to wonder what impact that has on the continent itself. Who’s next? Perhaps this was Lavrov’s thinking. What a cunning old fox!
