Peter Van BUREN

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In what can be called a victory speech over failed neoconservative foreign policy, President Donald Trump proclaimed the end of 30-some years of existing foreign policy in the Mideast. The thing which dragged the U.S. through pointless wars from Libya to Yemen, is now done.

At an investment conference in Riyadh, in a speech little-commented on by the MSM, Trump said:

“In the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built. And the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand.”

For the first time since Gulf War 1.0 in the 1990s, America is not fighting in the Middle East. Trump arranged a fragile ceasefire with Yemen, a proxy war against Iran by multiple U.S. presidents. Trump is withdrawing American troops from Syria, became the first American president in 25 years to meet with a Syrian leader, and announced alongside his speech the end of sanctions against that country. He is finally negotiating with Iran toward some sort of nuclear deal to replace the one he unilaterally canceled in his first term. Progress has not always been in a straight line, but there has been progress.

One need only to look back on the past decades to see the difference. The United States once overtly supported Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran, leading to thousands of deaths on both sides. Pivoting, the U.S. invaded Iraq in 1991 after Saddam moved into Kuwait. Saudi Arabia was threatened, saved from war by U.S. intervention because of its oil reserves, which the U.S. was then fully dependent on. In the neocon spasms following 9/11, America invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, beginning a plan called nation-building in both countries to displace national governance with U.S. puppets and local Islamic traditions with western ideas on women and society. Those nation-building actions gave support to warnings issued by al-Qaeda and ISIS that the west sought to neuter Islam and turn the Middle East into a part of a new global empire. Rumors circulated American troops in Iraq were issued maps of the Syrian border ahead of plans to turn the massive military to sweep west into Syria and Lebanon following the “conquest” of Iraq. As that war brought Iran into the fight, U.S. troops were deployed to Syria, the Turks threatened invasion, and Russian intervention complicated the struggle. ISIS rose to replace al-Qaeda. The U.S. began a war in Libya, overthrowing another ugly but stable government, leading to chaos which continues to this day. Massive streams of refugees flowed into Europe. Yemen dissolved into an ungoverned space. The Afghan war threatened to spill into Pakistan.

Though actual numbers can never be known, the Costs of War Project estimates over 940,000 people died directly as a result of violence due to American foreign policy in the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. An additional 3.6-3.8 million died indirectly due to factors like malnutrition, disease, and the breakdown of healthcare systems related to these conflicts. The total death toll, including both direct and indirect casualties, is estimated to be between 4.5 and 4.7 million. The Costs of War Project also highlights the significant displacement caused by these conflicts, with an estimated 38 million people displaced since 2001. Some 7,000 U.S. military service members died. The Project estimates the wars cost the U.S. over $8 trillion. Afghanistan today is ruled by the Taliban, Iraq by Iranian proxies. Nation-building was a complete failure. The broader neocon interventionist policy failed.

Indeed, the best summation of America’s decades long policy in the MidEast is Trump’s: “the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built. And the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand.”

Words are easy, actions often much  harder. So what is next? Trump stated his “fervent wish” Saudi Arabia follow its neighbors, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, in recognizing Israel. He said a nuclear deal is within sight with Iran, adding he “never believed in having permanent enemies.” Both are hard asks.

But in a sign of what may be the most significant change alongside the new foreign policy, Trump met the new leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Shara, a former al-Qaeda jihadist (one makes peace with one’s enemies, not one’s friends) who led a rebel alliance that ousted Bashar al-Assad. Trump posed for a photograph with al-Shara and the Saudi crown prince that “dropped jaws in the region and beyond.” Trump added in support of his growing realpolitik approach “In recent years, far too many American presidents have been afflicted with the notion that it’s our job to look into the souls of foreign leaders and use U.S. policy to dispense justice for their sins.”

Syria now stands at a crossroads with Trump. The end of sanctions will give the country its first chance at economic breathing room in 14 years. Al-Shara has invited American energy companies in to exploit Syria’s oil. But the ball still rests in the Syrian court. Syria must decide whether to reject Iranian terrorist support and stop providing a safe haven for those fighters. Gulf leaders rallied behind the new government in Damascus and want Trump to do the same, believing it is a bulwark against Iran’s greater influence. Pressure will come from the United States for Syria to cut its ties with Russia and dismantle the Russia bases and enclaves there. Though al-Shara has confirmed his commitment to the 1974 disengagement agreement with Israel, Trump will no doubt seek his support for the Abraham Accords. He’ll also want Syria to assume responsibility for ISIS detention centers in Northeast Syria.

There is a lot to talk about and many difficult steps ahead, but a start is a start. Syria has its opening, as Trump makes clear the goals of fostering human rights, nation building, and democracy promotion have been replaced by a pragmatic emphasis on prosperity and regional stability. “I am willing to end past conflicts and forge new partnerships for a better and more stable world, even if our differences may be profound,” Trump said.

Original article: wemeantwell.com