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Is the honeymoon period between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin over, following now what appears to be two months of talks of how to get a peace deal in Ukraine still dragging on without any light at the end of the tunnel?

While it is true that a peace deal in Ukraine is hampered by a lack of sincerity by the Ukrainian caretaker President Zelensky and even more smoke and mirrors by the Europeans who are now basically adversaries of the Trump-Putin initiative [READ They prefer war], it is in fact the Trump camp itself which is the heart of the problem.

Speed is one issue. Trump wants to flip a switch to lighten up the Christmas tree. He thinks a peace deal should be absurdly simple and is now vexed by some corners of U.S. media which remind the American people how preposterous the “24 hour” peace deal pledge was, leading up to taking office in January of this year. He’s also driven to getting a fast deal signed off by the deadline of nominations for the Nobel Peace prize approaching this year – a prize which he obsesses over given that Obama won one for practically doing nothing.

A speedy deal could have been a possibility if his chief negotiators were chosen more wisely.

Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff who recently met with Putin for four hours, believes he knows what the key is to getting a fast deal. He told Donald Trump that Ukraine should give Russia what it demands — total control of four eastern Ukrainian regions it annexed in 2022, some of which are still under Ukrainian control, according to Reuters reports. His comments have shocked many Republicans who have been complaining to Marco Rubio about his pro-Russia “stance” while General Keith Kellogg, who met with Zelensky recently caused a media storm by doing a ‘foot in mouth’. Kellogg, not a man overburdened with the stress of being highly intelligent, said that Ukraine could be divided up rather like Berlin was after the end of WWII – a comment he had to swiftly retract on social media later on. It is hardly a secret that Russia’s position on western troops in Ukraine is clear and such an idea is folly at best.

But idiotic ideas which everyone knows won’t work seems to be the game that Europeans are playing in Ukraine. The idea of British and French soldiers on the ground has now been made clearer and now we know this is only a scenario after a peace deal has been secured. And so, contrary to what we are reading in the high-brow press about Europe breaking away from the teat of the U.S. and doing its own thing on the security stage, in fact, the EU, along with the UK, need Trump more than ever as their so-called plan is to secure Zelensky’s future and their investments with all the cash and military hardware they can muster, only on the condition of a U.S.-Russia brokered ceasefire.

The problem with this is that it makes so much of the negotiations even more tricky for Trump who would like to use the possibility of removing Zelensky as leverage. For Zelensky to be part of the longer plan, which would secure peace, this puts even more emphasis on a deal with him, which benefits the U.S. and Trump. And yet, in recent days we are reading that the mineral deal is likely to go ahead as, quite apart from Trump changing its terms to be much more favourable to him, Zelensky has hinted that he can’t sign anything which would bar Ukraine from becoming an EU member state – which gives us a clue as to what the deal really is, which is more about geopolitics that real minerals, clearing the air over the mystery of how Trump and Zelensky can really be negotiating over minerals when the UK’s Keir Starmer already got in first and nailed it. There are no real minerals to be had. The mineral deal is a Trojanesque affair which actually is the platform for other, bigger issues. Trump is reported to be eyeing a gas deal in Ukraine which is probably where the real payback is for him.

But all players – Trump, Zelensky, the EU – want to have their Shylock moment in Ukraine. Peace is not something on its own merit which can be negotiated. Each one wants his pound of flesh first, before peace is agreed. Years ago, this would have been called ‘the spoils of war’. These days it’s just called ‘The Ukraine Deal’. For Russia it’s much more simpler. Moscow simply needs guarantees that NATO can’t sign up Ukraine and that the ‘winner takes it all’ rule of modern warfare is respected at the very least. For Russia to be given extra parts of the east which are currently in Ukrainian hands would be smart as it would accelerate everything but it’s unlikely that Zelensky could ever agree as his EU Godfathers would never agree to it. Putin probably knows this which is why he also wants, commercially, some fruits from the spoils of war himself, which is why one of his top investment tzars was present at the mammoth talks between him and Witkoff.

If Trump really wants his Nobel Prize this year, he had better get his skates on and do the only practical thing: get rid of Witkoff and Kellogg – which really does sound like a U.S. foodstuffs conglomerate – and come to Moscow himself. Talking directly to Putin across the big table might be the only way forward as the two clowns he has given the task to seem to be only prolonging the agony. But the conclusion that Trump must be coming close to ‘Zelensky is really the problem’ is fast approaching. Amazing that Zelensky is able to play Trump, even to this day. Perhaps this is the best performance yet of an actor who became president through being an actor in a TV show where he played a populist president in Ukraine. When Trump finally gives up on any deal with Zelensky, expect swift changes to happen in Ukraine’s political arena, reminding us all that the threats that EU countries have made about the tanks on the lawn in Kiev are nothing more than a handful of dust in the grand scheme of things. Trump is about to panic. There will be blood.