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It is the night between 7 and 8 December 2024: the Arab Republic of Syria, ruled by Bashar al-Assad, falls. This moment marks a milestone in history that could make all the difference for the future of the entire world.

I confess: this is the article I never wanted to write. But I have no choice now.

Location – location – location

What the hell happened?

How could the Syrian army surrender so much territory in a matter of days?

How did it happen that years of diplomatic and secret agreements, with the deployment of foreign armed forces and the activation of known and hidden military bases, collapsed in a matter of hours?

What happened behind the scenes?

It will not be easy to answer these questions. We will try, helping ourselves with the little information currently available and some cold, rational reasoning.

he first step to understanding this is to note that the Syrian army was ordered to withdraw from Aleppo/Hama. The soldiers did not flee and there was no mutiny. The al-Qaeda hordes did not defeat the army, because they did not fight them. They simply gave ground. To understand why such a heartbreaking decision was made, we have to look at the broader picture.

This was a ‘blitzkrieg’, a true Blitzkrieg: a surprise attack with a military force concentrated at a specific point to overwhelm the enemy. Once the Al-Qaeda hordes broke through the M4 highway, the attempt to keep the city in the mode of chaos would have resulted in mass casualties among both civilians and soldiers.

Not much can be done in such cases. The first option is to fall back, grinding ground until it reaches a point where it does not have enough resources to keep pushing. That point was reached in Homs. One can otherwise play the air superiority card, because it is clearly much easier to bomb convoys of al-Qaeda terrorists from the air on the highways than to fight them inside the cities. Or one can opt for flanking, separating the enemy into more easily manageable pockets. Part of this strategy was seen when Russia blew up the bridge from Hama to Homs in Rastan.

Sticking to a purely strategic-military calculation, the Syrian army did not suffer many casualties during the retreat, managing to preserve ‘human strength’ in a country with a total of less than 20 million inhabitants, a low percentage of whom are in military service and can be recalled in the event of war (which in any case requires minimal preparation time). The Syrian army was fighting a war on several fronts: the Turkish hordes in the north, the Americans in the east, the Americans and Takfirists in the south, and finally Israel. Hezbollah’s war against ‘Israel’ and Russia’s war against Ukraine increased the manpower shortage. Trying to counter-attack with a large deployment of men would most likely have meant the fall of Damascus well before it happened.

As journalist Vanessa Beeley testified while fleeing Syria, ‘Chaos reigns supreme, looting, thuggery and thievery. It has the stamp of approval of the US and Israel because that is what they believe in. Crossing the border was a succession of gunfire, infighting and looting in every single shop and market. Terrorists on motorbikes, gunmen and criminals. An incredibly sad experience. The house was surrounded by ‘rebels’ drunk on ‘victory’ from 5am, with continuous celebratory gunfire, and around 10am they tried to break down the outer door to loot the contents of the house. Early in the morning, Israel destroyed Syria’s air defence with bunker bombs. The whole house shook. The CIA road map is always the same. The Resistance is broken and I doubt it can be repaired, but extremist mercenaries in Israel’s pay will tell you they ‘support Palestine’. Go then, you are on the border now’.

Israel is the most interesting footnote: it was already ready to go in, it was just waiting for the right moment, and it did so as soon as things started to come to a head and victory – very quickly – was near. This is perhaps the most important reason for the withdrawal from Hama and Aleppo. The intention was probably to create a land grab and label it a ‘buffer zone’. The Golan had already seen an additional deployment of soldiers to deal with the attacks that began after 7 October. Israel is the biggest threat to Syria, the al-Qaeda hordes are just a distraction.

It is no coincidence that in recent months Turkey and Israel have both occupied new portions of territory to expand their neo-colonial ambitions. From Azerbaijan seizing Armenian villages using Turkish weapons and NATO diplomatic pressure on Yerevan, to the invasion of the Gaza Strip, or the new land grab after the collapse of Syria, which fell into the hands of Turkish-backed terrorist groups, and Israeli expansion into the Golan Heights. After two decades of Western intervention in the Middle East and the transformation of several countries into battle zones, the ‘unexpected’ consequences will soon create a new supra-regional crisis; new refugees are already on the march towards Europe, estimated at up to 1.5 million. A terrifyingly difficult figure to manage.

A Syrian army officer who managed to evacuate to the Khmeimim airbase recounts:

‘In 2018, Russia proposed to the Syrian government to reform the armed forces. It proposed providing new equipment on credit, which could have been repaid from the profits of Russian companies in the SAR. The Syrian leadership rejected the proposal.

Meanwhile, the Turks and other NATO members were turning the militants into something resembling a real army. At the same time, all commanders who had fought against the Russian army since 2015 were removed from the command posts of the Syrian army.The trained units were disbanded. In the past year, new commanders were appointed in all divisions and brigades in the areas of Aleppo, Idlib and Hama. They eventually fled with their soldiers.

As for Iran, the US and Israel did not allow it to transfer troops and equipment. The same can be said of Hezbollah’.

Militarily, and not only that, the defeat was swift and real.

Out of the spotlight, from BRICS+ to Assad

Such an event could never have happened without a general predisposition of the whole context, i.e. the concert between the US, Israel, Turkey, Russia and Iran.

What we have seen – at a first analysis still hot and only with present information – is that Russia has sold Syria, the Iranians have defected, Qatar and Turkey are at the front of the operation and behind it are the US and Israel.

A source quoted by my friend Pepe Escobar reports that there was a secret agreement: Washington does what it wants in the Middle East, Russia takes Ukraine. The facts will prove whether this is true or not.

This would be perfectly consistent with the political intentions of Donald Trump, the President promoter of the Greater Israel, Zionist project, who has filled his government team entirely with Zionists ready to go ahead with the plan. It is curious that Trump, in the hours of this Syrian disaster, is in Paris haggling with two Zionist ‘cousins’, Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelensky, reassuring them about the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

What we do know is that in Kazan, during the BRICS+ summit, the subject was broached: the normalization of the Middle East ‘at all costs’ is this. In return, after a few weeks of extermination, the dawn of Greater Israel and a few months of supposed pacification, surely feigned and temporary. This agreement was called into question in Doha, during the emergency meeting, out of which came a sidereal frost from all the foreign ministers present.

Turkey’s willingness to intervene had already been the subject of various analyses for Strategic Culture. There was no point in proposing an Islamic Alliance formed in this way, there was no credibility and no real authority to carry it out. The only reason was a war front. On the other hand, Turkey continues to be in NATO and does business with Israel. Nothing good can be expected from double-dealing. Never.

What has Russia done about this? There has been no engagement in the theatre of war, except for a few air raids on specific positions on the first day. Iran? Not present at roll call. This clearly shows that there was an agreement, more or less known to the parties.

Let us not underestimate the Zionist issue from the Russian point of view: Russia is full of Israeli citizens, Zionists (especially among the oligarchs and politicians) and has very valuable trade with Israel. It could be that Russia actually carried out the ‘swap’ between Syria and Ukraine because this would be in the interests of Russian Zionists as opposed to Middle Eastern ones. It is a hypothesis that cannot be discarded.

Bashar al-Asssad has played his part. A betrayal of his people? Who ‘signed’ the agreement in Kazan? He probably sold what was left to save himself, perhaps even betrayed Russia. Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen are about to fall, Iran is facing enormous risks. Why this choice? Was there really nothing else that could be done? Where is the spirit of the revolution?

Assad is now in Moscow, under political asylum. We will see what he has to say.

Collaterally, extending the analysis, what happened shows that the BRICS+ are not ‘salvation’. On the contrary, they can represent a huge risk. The power of the BRICS+ is not yet sufficiently political and not yet coordinated with the strategic-military-antiterrorist power. This is a fact that is sadly confirmed by the fall of Assad’s Syria. The general infatuation of many, both in the East and the West, is now being tempered. Israel remains an economic and nuclear power, with footholds in the governments of most countries and unstoppable intelligence. War teaches much more realpolitik than geo-economic partnerships, unfortunately.

And what about Palestine? The Palestinian people will once again pay the price.

Who will be next?

What is certain is that the overthrow was made possible by Israel, excluding Turkey and the US. This Syrian framework puts Israel at a strategic advantage and deals a severe blow to the axis of resistance. The Shiite Bridge established by Soleimani with great sacrifice is now at risk and with it the supplies to the Axis of Resistance, in particular to Hezbollah, from which Israel could soon ask the bill, pushing its troops forward again with targeted attacks or with a new extermination campaign.

Iran’s influence in the region is being put at serious risk, which also means risking conventional deterrence – which would probably push the ‘nuclear bomb’ issue.

Syria is one of the first stages. Russia and Iran are next.

Expect yet another attempt at a colored revolution in Iran. In Iran, there are many opposition youth, there are huge ideological problems and there is a strong division in the political elite, starting with the president-mum who has been silent for months.

As for Russia, beware: there is a ‘revolutionary class’ made up of plenty of immigrants from Central Asia, a possible huge army that has already honed its skills. The poll by the Federal Agency for National Affairs in its latest survey spoke volumes: 43.5% of immigrants prefer Sharia to secular law, 24% are ready to participate in protests to defend their ‘rights’ and 15.3% are ready to participate in illegal political actions. The real figures are most likely higher, as many people hide their real position during these polls. However, even if we take at least 15.3% as a likely figure, we see that this is already 1.7-2 million people. It is difficult to manage such a number, where there are still potential militants.

My analyst friend Daniele Perra wrote well about this (full quote):

«Sketches of Syria’s future are beginning to circulate among Israeli analysts. The image below roughly traces what I predicted a few days ago: a new version of the Yinon Plan with the country divided into three parts (an Alawite area, with the possibility of maintaining bases for Russia; a Sunni Islamic Republic and an area under Kurdish control).

However, it remains difficult for Turkey to grant the Kurds the northern border strip. It is curious that the supposed Druze-Kurdish confederation is given the entire southern border and the area around the Golan. It is a sign that the Turkey-Israel idyll that led to the overthrow of Assad (and was also remarkably successful in Nagorno Karabakh) is not destined to last forever. Greater Israel and neo-Ottomanism may have a conflictual future, as many of their long-term interests are divergent (especially over gas transport corridors).

Meanwhile, Israeli tanks have already entered Syria to secure the creation of a buffer zone.

It remains to be said that once Hezbollah has been encircled and defeated, only the Iraqi militias between Israel and Iran will remain; the last line of the front meticulously constructed to protect the Islamic Republic by Qassem Soleimani.

The manner and speed with which Syria collapsed, however, will have to be investigated at length.

It is hard to imagine that it is the product of agreements and secret exchanges between the diplomacies of the powers involved. Without Syria (Russia’s gateway to the Levant according to Tsarina Catherine II), Russia’s southern front is beyond exposed».

Netanyahu describes the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government as a ‘historic day’ and extends his ‘hand of peace’, filled with the blood of tens of thousands of Palestinian and Lebanese women and children, to shake that of the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

Possible scenarios based on current information

The first scenario involves the establishment of the Syrian Democratic Republic by an opposition alliance with various factions, despite ideological differences. Although this option is hardly feasible, it would be supported by Turkey, Russia, the United States and European countries, as it would preserve the integrity of Syria.

The second scenario involves the creation of the Islamic Republic of Syria, where representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham would form the backbone of the new government. In this case, Syria will be governed by representatives of the Salafists (a movement of Sunni Islam) who have no ideological enmity to Israel and the United States.

The third scenario involves the creation of an anti-Shiite state in Syria under the control of Israel. Its doctrine would be based on an anti-Iranian orientation, the blockade of the Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah, and the deprivation of its logistical and military support by Tehran.

The fourth scenario envisages the creation of the Federal Republic of Syria under US auspices, which would be balkanized by dividing it into small puppet states.

The fifth scenario for Syria envisages its division and disintegration. If the opposition and its supporting countries fail to reach an agreement, the civil war in Syria will escalate again. This would eventually lead to its complete collapse.

It is difficult to contemplate any other way.

The HTS that has seized power in Syria is actually not a single group, but has emerged from numerous groups, some of which are citizens of other countries, others are extremists and are at war with each other. Syria’s neighbours (Israel and Turkey) have aggressive plans for Syria’s territorial integrity, and these opposition groups will not tolerate such plans after the formation of the new government unless they are offered something very valuable in return. Today, the Zionist regime announced that the 1974 agreement is over and that it intends to occupy Jamal al-Sheikh in order to create a security zone, even bombing various military centres.

What is certain is that the armed groups that will soon form a government need money to run the country, and Syria’s most important oil and gas resources are under American occupation and in eastern Syria, and this will soon become a challenge for the US and these groups.

In the coming hours, terrorist rebels will divide up territories, influence, administrations. The poker table is open and the pot is very rich.

What will become of Syria and its people?

Damascus, a city 4,000 years old, has now fallen, and with it the whole of Syria. One of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world and certainly the oldest capital, which has been Aramean, Assyrian, Greek, Roman, even Persian, Byzantine, Arab, Ottoman, French, and finally what it has always been, that is, Syrian. A bulwark against the Kingdom of Israel, the conquests of the Mongols, the Crusaders. The very embodiment of the history of the Middle East. The fourth holy city of Islam. Long one of the most important Christian centres. Hinge of trade with the East and the desert. Crossroads between Africa, Arabia, Persia and the Far East, Constantinople/Istanbul and Europe. A symbol of tolerance of religious and cultural diversity – Christians, Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites, Jews. But also a symbol of endurance, of millennial resilience. Until this week.

What remains of all this?

Much, much fear. Jihadists in the pay of the CIA and MI6, Erdogan with his dreams of resurrecting the Ottoman empire, Bibi Netanyahu who wants Greater Israel from the Nile to the Euphrates at all costs, a few American dollars to buy the loyalty of the last remaining people not fallen in battle.

What will become of the Syrian people?

From the fourth message of the Holy Virgin of Soufanieh (Damascus, 24 March 1983):

«I say to you: pray, pray, pray. How beautiful my children are when they pray on their knees. Do not be afraid, I am with you. Do not divide yourselves as the great are divided. You will teach the generations the Words of unity, of love and of faith. Pray for the inhabitants of earth and heaven.»