Having exhausted the possibilities of direct pressure on Russia in connection with the events in the Crimea and Ukraine, Washington floated its strategic reserve – the potential of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies. White House appealed to the leadership of these countries to contribute with $ 15 billion in the package "urgent economic assistance" Kiev.
There is no doubt that Washington's main appeal to his partner in the Muslim world, Riyadh, will not go unanswered, as the strategic goal of the U.S. and the Saudi kingdom in relation to Russia, Iran and Syria always coincide. But disagreements and misunderstandings between the two countries, accompanied all of the Obama presidency, well within the saying "out of lovers – is upset." Washington and Riyadh are on the threshold of new political arrangements, registration of which happen during the forthcoming this week Barack Obama's visit to Saudi Arabia. Under these conditions, when the Saudis expected to be achieved from the American president more aggressive and tough policies on the two most important for Riyadh issues – opposition to the spread of Iranian influence in the Middle East and the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad – the Kingdom is quite advantageous to provide "dear friend" in Obama's favor financial support for the coup in Ukraine. And on a similar action to persuade Kuwait and Qatar, at the same time demonstrating its leadership in the Washington Union of the Gulf monarchies and the ability to influence partners in this alliance.
Approaches Riyadh to Kiev events nothing different from approaches to the issue of American "hawks". And if the relationship Saudi Arabia and Ukraine have never been particularly close, the policy of the American neoconservatives against Kiev Saudi Arabia funded generously enough. Endowment for Democracy (NED), who was one of the main tools of "soft power" of the USA in Ukraine, who was there 65 projects related to "creating civil society" and "training" future insurgents Evromaydana, regularly received Saudi donations as conducted similar activities in Syria and coordinated the efforts of American conservatives and the Israeli lobby in Washington tightening policy against Iran.
When Victoria Nuland, U.S. Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs (and, incidentally, the wife of one of the leaders of the neo-conservatives, closely associated with the Israel lobby, Robert Kagan) said that "the United States invested in Ukraine's European aspirations five billion dollars" then with great probability we can say that at least a fifth of these funds were donations of Riyadh and the Saudi lobby in the U.S..
Something about Ukrainian sheep and chickens
In 2006, on the initiative of the Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine and the Council of Chambers of Commerce of Saudi Arabia emerged Ukrainian-Saudi Business Council, and then the intergovernmental commission on trade-economic and scientific-technical cooperation between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Ukraine. Official purposes of these bodies have been hailed "the expansion of trade and economic relations between the two countries" and other ceremonial things, although in reality the main question was about the possibilities of expanding the Ukrainian arms exports to those countries in which the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to supply weapons directly was difficult.
Any serious and real results of this venture could not be obtained because the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is rapidly degraded and could not provide the necessary range of supplies in the Middle East, while actively selling weapons to Azerbaijan and Georgia. For example, since 2004, Kiev began supplying Azerbaijan 300mm multiple rocket launchers "Smerch", and in 2006 it sold 48 T-72AG. In 2009, Azerbaijan bought from Ukraine 29 units BTR-70, the same 122-mm self-propelled howitzers 2C1 «Carnation" and 6 units of 152-mm self-propelled howitzer 2S3 "Acacia", as well as combat-1 MiG-29UB and 11 helicopters Mi-24. In 2010, Ukraine sold Baku unit 71 BTR-70 (unarmed), 7 self-propelled artillery "Carnation" 2S1 122mm, 1 Mi-24R, 1 controlled missile complex, and 3,000 machine guns and pistols, machine guns.
The main problem in the delicate area of the Ukrainian-Saudi contacts weapon subjects was that the expansion of the "gray" arms deliveries to third countries was necessary to modernize the Ukrainian "defense". The necessary amount of from three to five billion dollars to Riyadh was no problem, but the idea has not received approval in Washington. First, because the promotion of re-industrialization of Ukraine in the framework of long-term U.S. strategy does not fit. And secondly, because of the resistance of Israel, who is actively logged on arms markets and Azerbaijan, and Georgia, and other countries, and therefore was not at all interested in the emergence of competition in the face of such an unreliable and untested state as Ukraine. Justifying their negative position with regard to support Washington and Riyadh idea of the "gray arms exports" from Ukraine, Israeli experts noted that "the reigning corruption in Ukraine creates conditions where weapons could fall into the hands of terrorist groups."
The idea came to nothing, but the structure of the Ukrainian-Saudi Business Council preserved. And recently actively worked. On March 25-26, a regular meeting of the Intergovernmental Ukrainian-Saudi commission for trade-economic and scientific-technical cooperation. It is difficult to say whether the Ukrainian get chicken and sheep, which were in a difficult position, Saudi funding, but that the Saudis, in response to a request from Washington to help "young Ukrainian democracy," no doubt remains. And this assistance, that will obviously be wearing not only agricultural character …
Oil and Wahhabis
Projects that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait, responding to the call of the White House, are willing to allocate to Kiev, is not the only resource that Washington and Riyadh ready to float in the confrontation with Russia on "Ukrainian issue". George Soros was a suggestion about the need to lower oil prices, which will entail the collapse of the Russian budget, caused a lot of comments, and plans to sell oil from the U.S. strategic reserve to increase supply in the market, as hinted at in the West, could be "the most severe sanction against Russia." The U.S. has already flexed its muscles in this matter, when last week by the decision of Barack Obama, put up for sale 5 million barrels from its strategic reserve, the total amount of which currently stands at about 700 million barrels. The market of this stuffing is not particularly noticed. In addition, the Russian budget is formed with a certain safety margin – based on the average price of $ 93 per barrel, while the world price forecast for 2014 is $ 101 per barrel.
The situation may change if the game for a fall including Saudi Arabia and other Western-oriented most OPEC members. But in matters of the game to drop too many nuances that make it quite unrealistic. Since that period, when the game is on the prices gave political results, as it was after the Arab-Israeli war of 1973, during the campaign in Afghanistan and the Soviet Union during the crisis over Kuwait in 1990-1991, the world economy has changed rapidly. In addition, with the introduction of restrictions on Iran to not risen oil prices, Saudi Arabia at the request of the U.S. and the West has brought oil output to 11 million barrels a day, achieving the highest possible figure. Practically the oil industry in this country over the last 3-4 years working at full capacity, and this year as a result of the wear and resource generation machinery and equipment, oil production could fall by 15-20%.
Much more real danger is another scenario – the diversification of energy sources, ie the replacement of the West Russian oil and gas energy from other sources. And here the role as Saudi Arabia and Qatar can be significant, since all diversification projects very costly financially and without "outside help" to the West, in its current difficult economic situation, simply "very heavy." But there is little doubt that after the annexation of Crimea to Russia and that defeat that caused Moscow to the West in the "Ukrainian question", the implementation of Russian energy substitution strategy will receive a new impetus.
But if oil, gas and their transportation issues constitute a strategic level, requiring a long time and huge financial costs, the question of Saudi support separatists and terrorists in the Russian territory and in the same Crimea – effectively, "cheap and cheerful". And most importantly – as usual. As one of the sponsors of terrorism and extremism in Chechnya in Russia's North Caucasus, the Saudis have taken care of the Wahhabi cells occurs in the Crimea. Actually, it was through Chechnya, Wahhabism began his active penetration on the Crimean peninsula. Chechen rebels licked wounds received in battle with Russian troops, in Saxon and EVPATORIYSKY sanatoriums with their mud baths. Chechen presence was virtually legalized the then Ukrainian authorities for the SBU is no secret it was not. Those who yesterday fought against Russian troops, now quietly went to the Crimea. And together with the militants penetrated Wahhabi preachers who immediately proceeded to recruit supporters, creating cells and establish control over the mosques.
Today on the peninsula according to rough estimates, there are about five thousand adherents of Wahhabism. They do not hide their goal – the creation of a sovereign state in the Crimea, living under Sharia law in its Wahhabi interpretation. And their beliefs complement specific actions, creating a parallel system government and introducing semi-legal "tax" on the "content of ethnic and Islamic government." New Crimean authorities are trying to convince the Crimean Tatars in the fact that they have nothing to be afraid of changing the status of the peninsula. They offered him the post of deputy prime minister, three ministerial portfolios, the official recognition of their organizations and are even willing to return ancestral names some Tatar settlements. Neither nationalists nor the Wahhabis do not like it. Their representatives say: "This agreement is not even worth the paper on which it is written. Tomorrow everything can change. " Tomorrow – it's obvious when the detonator work in the form of local Wahhabis associated with Saudi Arabia?
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In the "Ukrainian question" Riyadh unconditionally accepted Washington's side and is ready to support U.S. intervention both financially and politically, involving the implementation of the U.S. strategy in the Ukraine its allies among the Gulf monarchies and Saudi-controlled extremists and radicals. The only correct response by Russia's decision in these conditions should be committed to expanding cooperation with Tehran, whose leadership during the coup in Ukraine demonstrated a thorough understanding of the essence of the event, considering them as a subversive operation of the West and a direct interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. Moreover, Iran has been one of the few countries that officially gave a balanced assessment of the facts the Crimea to Russia, and expressed optimism balanced on this issue. Revolution in the Ukraine and in Crimea events become that indicator, which allowed Russia to learn the true face of their allies and enemies both within the country and abroad. Saudi Arabia has once again confirmed its status as a strategic partner of the U.S.. Tehran has once again confirmed its reputation as a reliable ally of Russia. Here, as they say, draw your own conclusions …
Igor Nikolayev, Iran.ru
