By Andrew LATHAM
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5 Key Points on Why Russia Has Won the Ukraine War – The dominant Western narrative that Europe can arm Ukraine to victory against Russia is a “dangerous fantasy.”
-Europe’s defense industrial base is too hollowed out, its weapons production timelines too long, and its political will too fragile to offset Russia’s formidable military and industrial might.
-While brave, Ukraine’s forces are being ground down in a war of attrition they cannot win.
-Russia continues to make steady gains, and the notion that last-minute European aid can turn the tide is “hopelessly naive.”
-The hard truth is that Ukraine has already lost the war; it is time for a strategic reassessment.
Can Europe Arm Ukraine to Victory?
With the war in Ukraine grinding on, there is no bigger question than whether Europe can effectively arm Ukraine to stem the tide against Russia.
The dominant Western narrative is that most of Ukraine could be regained, and the war could be turned around with European support.
However, that view is not only overly optimistic but also entirely incorrect.
The fact of the matter is this: Europe is not in a position today to arm Ukraine effectively and whatever investment it makes in developing and/or manufacturing new weapons systems, whether under the aegis of NATO or the EU, it will take years, if not decades, for those investments to result in deployed armaments.
In the meantime, Russia is continuing to press on throughout the four contested oblasts, increasingly occupying more of Ukrainian land.
The sad reality is that Ukraine has lost the war; it and its European partners just have not yet come to terms with that harsh reality.
Ukraine Has Already Lost the War to Russia: Sad But True
To appreciate the seriousness of the situation, it is necessary to acknowledge the scale of the military challenge that Ukraine faces.
As weak as it is, Russia’s military is still a formidable fighting force, and it has the resources of a vast industrial base and the fighting spirit to take losses that no European party would be able to withstand politically.
The Kremlin has demonstrated its ability to sustain a large-scale military effort, and its mobilization in recent weeks suggests a determination to achieve its territorial objectives, regardless of the cost.
Ukraine’s military, by contrast, though brave and resourceful, is hobbled by a defense industry that has been ravaged by years of war and neglect. The idea that Europe can quickly boost military support to offset Russia’s power is a dangerous fantasy.
A Weak Europe
An array of national divisions and weaknesses plagues the European defense structure.
NATO has made significant improvements in collective defense, but the fact remains that much of Europe still faces a situation in which its equipment is outdated and lacks sufficient numbers.
The war in Ukraine has revealed the extent of Europe’s military unreadiness, including the fact that many EU member states – and the UK – have been incapable of fulfilling even their own defense requirements, let alone doing much to help Ukraine.
The notion that Europe can suddenly spin up its own advanced-weapons production is hopelessly naive. The defense business proceeds on long timescales, and the red tape of multinational procurement only exacerbates the issue.
Even if Europe’s nations made a firm commitment to increase their defense spending today, the results of that spending would not be realized for years or even decades down the road. Furthermore, who knows if there is a political desire to sustain such a campaign?
The war is dragging on, and public fatigue is setting in throughout Europe.
The early surge in support for Ukraine is waning, with the economic consequences of an extended conflict now foremost in people’s minds.
It is far less palatable for many European leaders to send additional troops or advanced weaponry into a grinding war. This change of heart might also result in a retraction of support, adding insult to injury for Ukraine. The idea that Europe will stay the course with Ukraine as the domestic stakes rise is a hope too far.
Europe and Ukraine Must Accept A Hard Truth
This harsh reality poses a significant threat to Ukraine. As Russia tightens its grip on the contested oblasts, the chances of a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive grow increasingly slim. The belief that Ukraine can reclaim its territory through military action is becoming a distant fantasy.
The balance of power has shifted decisively in Russia’s favor, and any attempts by Ukraine to restore that balance could lead to further territorial losses. The grim truth is that Kyiv is unlikely to create the conditions necessary for the return of Crimea, which has become deeply woven into Russia’s political and military fabric.
The longer the conflict drags on, the more entrenched Russia becomes, making any future diplomatic efforts more challenging for Ukraine. Given these circumstances, Ukraine and its European allies must reconsider their strategic objectives. Relying solely on military solutions and the assumption that increased military aid will lead to victory is not only misguided but also dangerous.
Instead, Ukraine should explore alternative strategies to ensure its sovereignty and territorial integrity. This might involve seeking diplomatic solutions, engaging in dialogue with Russia, and pursuing international mediation. While these options may be challenging to accept, they could represent the most viable path forward.
Europe, too, needs to face the unpalatable fact that its own security is bound up with the outcome of this war. The repercussions for security and stability in Europe for not supporting Ukraine will be overwhelming.
A more confident Russia after its victory in Ukraine will also become more dangerous to European countries, which might, in return, further embolden the aggressiveness in the area. Failure to do so will be a missed opportunity for European leaders to identify further the necessary balance between a military effort and its geopolitical underpinnings.
Ultimately, it is a dangerous illusion to assume that Europe can equip Ukraine to the extent that it can alter the balance of power with Russia. The continent is critically underarmed, and any investments into defense won’t come to fruition for years. Russia, meanwhile, presses its attack, setting a lock on Ukraine’s territory.
Time to Face the Reality: Russia Has Won the War
The hard-cold truth is that Ukraine lost the war; it just hasn’t dawned on its leaders yet. As the war of attrition continues, both Ukraine and its European allies will need to reevaluate and explore other means to achieve a just peace and stability.
Wishful thinking is over; the straight talk is now.
Original article: nationalsecurityjournal.org
