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The geopolitical and economic context

Located between two of the world’s largest and most influential nations, India and China, Myanmar occupies a unique position as a bridge connecting South Asia and Southeast Asia. It is also a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), one of the fastest growing economic blocs in the world. This confluence of geographic and economic factors places Myanmar at the center of regional trade, infrastructure development, and strategic competition.

The country’s role as a hub for emerging economic corridors linking China to the Indian Ocean and India to Southeast Asia underscores its growing importance in regional and global connectivity. Let’s now focus on its potential as a key corridor for trade and infrastructure, on the dynamics of trilateral economic cooperation between India, China and Myanmar, and on the implications for the regional and global economic order.

Myanmar’s geopolitical importance, in fact, derives from its geographical position between China to the north and east and India to the west: the country’s eastern borders connect it to Laos and Thailand, while its extensive western coast provides access to the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. This strategic location places Myanmar at the crossroads of vital trade and energy routes, including the Maritime Silk Road as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and India’s Act East policy. Myanmar’s position as a gateway to the Indian Ocean makes it crucial for the transportation of goods and energy resources, thus reinforcing its importance as a transit hub in the regional supply chain.

In fact, geographically it acts as a strategic buffer between the two Asian giants, India and China, whose historical rivalries and economic competition define much of the geopolitical landscape in Asia, with direct influence in Southeast Asia: for China, Myanmar represents a direct access route to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the congested and strategically vulnerable Strait of Malacca; for India, it offers a land bridge to Southeast Asia, facilitating greater economic and political integration with ASEAN. This triangular dynamic has positioned Myanmar as a focal point in the broader strategic calculus of both India and China.

Myanmar’s membership of ASEAN further increases its economic importance. ASEAN is one of the fastest growing economic regions in the world, with a combined GDP that will exceed $3.6 trillion by 2022 and a population of over 650 million people. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which includes ASEAN members along with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, has strengthened Myanmar’s potential as an economic hub. Myanmar’s integration into ASEAN-led supply chains positions it as a key node for production, logistics and trade, particularly in sectors such as textiles, agriculture and energy.

Geo-economic initiatives in the pipeline

On the geo-economic front, we see that major infrastructure projects led by China and India underline Myanmar’s growing role in regional connectivity.

The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) is a key component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The CMEC envisages a network of roads, railways, pipelines and ports connecting China’s Yunnan Province to the deep-water port of Kyaukphyu in Myanmar on the Bay of Bengal. The strategic value of the project lies in its ability to provide China with direct access to the Indian Ocean, reducing its dependence on the Strait of Malacca and improving its energy security. The Kyaukphyu port project, together with the oil and gas pipelines crossing Myanmar, allows China to transport energy resources from the Middle East and Africa more efficiently.

India has pursued its own strategic initiatives to strengthen connectivity with Myanmar as part of its Act East policy. The India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway is a key project aimed at connecting the Indian state of Manipur with Thailand through Myanmar, improving trade and land transportation between South Asia and Southeast Asia. Then there is the Kaladan multimodal transportation project that seeks to connect the northeastern states of India with the state of Rakhine in Myanmar through a combination of maritime, river and road transportation. The aim of these infrastructure projects is to reduce India’s geographical isolation from Southeast Asia and increase its economic influence in the region.

In addition to bilateral projects with China and India, Myanmar has also benefited from ASEAN-led infrastructure development. The ASEAN Highway Network and Trans-Asian Railway aim to create seamless land connectivity across the region. Its strategic position makes it a crucial link in these trans-regional networks, facilitating the flow of goods and people between South Asia, Southeast Asia and beyond.

The potential of a trilateral corridor

The convergence of Chinese and Indian infrastructure projects in Myanmar represents an opportunity for the creation of a trilateral economic corridor involving China, India and Myanmar, which would integrate existing Chinese and Indian initiatives, creating a continuous commercial and transportation network across South and Southeast Asia.

A trilateral corridor would improve regional economic integration by combining China’s industrial capacity, India’s technological and services expertise, and Myanmar’s strategic geographic location. The corridor could facilitate greater trade flows, attract foreign investment, and stimulate the development of different types of infrastructure, enabling the country to quickly become competitive with its neighbors.

Despite its strategic potential, the creation of a trilateral corridor faces significant challenges:

1- Geopolitical rivalries: the strategic competition between India and China could undermine the efforts to create a cohesive trilateral framework. China’s growing presence in Myanmar, particularly through the BRI, has raised concerns in New Delhi about Beijing’s strategic encirclement.

2- Internal security: there are still some groups of insurgents, financed by the West, who unfortunately create a climate of uncertainty for investments, sometimes discouraging foreign capital that would be interested in investing.

If successfully implemented, a trilateral corridor could unlock significant economic and strategic advantages, such as:

Diversification of trade routes: reducing dependence on maritime trade routes and creating alternative land links would improve the resilience of regional trade.

Greater energy security: the corridor could facilitate the transportation of oil and gas from the Middle East to India and China via Myanmar.

Industrial and supply chain integration: it could favor the development of industrial zones, logistics hubs and manufacturing centers along its route, opening up international export prospects.

Clearly, all this could shift the balance of power in Asia, as it could also position Myanmar as a stabilizing force in regional geopolitics, mitigating the risks of conflict and fostering greater economic cooperation.

Its growing strategic importance could attract greater attention from external powers, including the United States and the European Union, which have already opposed the 2021 self-determination process, with the change of political regime and the advent of the new government. The danger, however, is mitigated by the multipolar dimension that Myanmar is developing, or rather, in which it is inserting itself.

All ASEAN states are adopting a multipolar vision, both politically and commercially, and this allows for the establishment of a system of mutual aid and a geo-economic soft power that Western countries do not know how to manage (as already amply demonstrated with the BRICS and the advancing de-dollarization). Here, the proximity to China and India, both BRICS members, allows Myanmar to project itself onto the international science scene with a legitimacy in relations that is different from that of a few years ago. From a multipolar development of the whole region, the benefit is shared by all the countries present.