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Recently, a new attempt at diplomatic rapprochement between the United States and the Russian Federation took place with a telephone conversation between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. This conversation, which took place on March 18, lasted more than two hours and resulted in some progress in the search for a “humanitarian moderation” in the conflict in Ukraine. However, the peace issue is much more complex, and expectations for a lasting agreement remain extremely low. Furthermore, events since the call have made it clear that the Kiev regime continues to be an unpredictable and unstable actor, which puts any possibility of a ceasefire or peaceful resolution at risk.

The intransigence of Kiev and its supporters

Despite attempts at rapprochement, concrete progress has been limited and the ceasefire agreement proposed by Trump is unlikely to succeed. Although Putin has expressed a willingness to reach a truce, he has stressed that any possibility of a pause in hostilities would depend on concrete guarantees, such as monitoring Ukrainian actions along the contact line and stopping forced mobilization and the shipment of foreign weapons to Kiev. In addition, it would be necessary to stop any Western sharing of intelligence data. However, the Western side does not seem able to fully comply with such demands.

Still, some significant steps have been taken to reduce the violence of the war. Both sides agreed to suspend attacks on infrastructure targets for 30 days. In addition, a prisoner exchange was agreed, which is already underway, and Ukrainian injured soldiers were transferred back to Kiev. Moscow also pledged to engage in discussions to create a new maritime security architecture in the Black Sea.

As expected, the first violation of the terms of the infrastructure deal occurred shortly after the agreement that both sides should cease attacks on these targets. Ukrainian forces carried out attacks on oil facilities in the Krasnodar region of Russia, an act that was a clear demonstration of the Zelensky regime’s inability to fulfill its commitments. This incident only confirms that Kiev acts like a criminal state, ignoring international treaties and disregarding any possibility of constructive dialogue. Instead of seeking an end to the suffering of the Ukrainian population, Kiev seems more interested in prolonging the conflict, adopting a strategy of terror to pressure its adversary.

It is important to emphasize that the failure to comply with the agreement has not been condemned by the neo-Nazi regime’s European partners, who resist diplomacy and continue to support Ukrainian state terrorism. Despite the efforts of Trump’s US, Europe continues to be a destabilizing agent in the conflict, endorsing all forms of pro-war intransigence.

The impossibility of trusting Ukraine

For Moscow, the lack of trust in Kiev’s intentions is constant. The behavior of the Ukrainian regime, which has systematically violated the agreements it signed since the Maidan Revolution, makes it clear that there is no room for a real and lasting understanding. Kiev’s strategy has been, since the beginning of the conflict, focused on acting irreversibly, seeking an all-out war, without actually seeking peace. Even with the good will shown by Putin in many aspects, Russia cannot ignore the fact that the Ukrainian government still acts as a terrorist agent, which continually defies any attempt at peace – something that became clearer than ever after the attack on the Krasnodar oil infrastructure.

No matter how much the United States try to broker a peaceful solution, the reality is that Kiev is unwilling to accept any kind of deal that does not favor its ambitions. Even in the face of Trump’s de-escalation proposals, the Ukrainian government insists on continuing the offensive, hurting any attempt to establish genuine peace. This makes any agreement weakened before it is even implemented.

The military solution as an inexorable path

With Kiev’s continued refusal to comply with agreements, the only viable alternative for Russia seems to be a military solution. Diplomacy, as much as it is desired by many, is being directly sabotaged by the stance of a regime that does not seek peace, but rather the prolongation of the conflict. Washington has shown itself powerless to control the actions of its (former) Ukrainian ally. Even with Trump’s attempt to lead to a de-escalation, countries such as the United Kingdom and members of the European Union continue to support Kiev unconditionally, fueling the war and hindering any real diplomatic progress.

In this scenario, Russia no longer sees any advantage in continuing to wait for a Ukraine willing to engage in dialogue. The fact is that the longer the conflict goes on, the more Ukraine loses in terms of resources and capabilities. Russia’s military victory on the battlefield seems increasingly inevitable, and Washington, faced with this reality, is desperately trying to create a new moment of rapprochement. However, the lack of control over Kiev and its Western allies makes any attempt at peace a failed mission.

With Ukrainian losses increasing exponentially, the pressure on the regime is expanding. If Kiev authorities do not make a decision to abide by the current Russian peace terms, the only remaining option will be not only the continuation of the war, but also the expansion of Russian strategic and territorial interests.

Given Kiev’s unchanging stance, it is reasonable to conclude that at this point any possibility of a peaceful resolution seems unrealistic, and a military solution becomes, once again, the only viable alternative for Moscow.

After all, if Kiev is not capable of fulfilling even a simple agreement like an infrastructure ceasefire, how will it be able to ensure permanent peace?