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The Munich Security Report 2025, titled Multipolarisation, makes the case that while the world is not yet fully multipolar, it is rapidly undergoing a process of multipolarisation, in an ongoing shift away from the US-led, post-Cold War unipolar order.

On that theme, its authors write that Donald Trump’s return to the White House has “buried the US post – Cold War foreign policy consensus that a grand strategy of liberal internationalism would best serve US interests,” with that former order considered to constitute a “bad deal” from an American perspective.

The report was released ahead of the Munich Security Conference which is set to take place later this week, and which last year was attended for the first time by then-Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and then-Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs, Micheál Martin.

An Irish presence at this year’s conference, if there is to be one, has yet to be announced.

US Vice President JD Vance is due to attend the conference alongside Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will also be in attendance, alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola.

The report analyses the process of multipolarisation, which sees power and influence spread among multiple actors, rather than concentrated with one, as in the case of unipolarity, or two in the case of bipolarity. It breaks down the positions and roles of key geopolitical actors in this new era, noting that the “negative effects” of greater multipolarity “are prevailing as divides between major powers grow and competition among different order models stands in the way of joint approaches to global crises and threats”.

The change in leadership and approach to foreign policy in the US is considered at length, with President Trump described as having a preference for “bilateral or transactional diplomacy” that results in further multipolarisation as states vie for direct or preferential relationships with the US over others.

In discussing Europe’s positioning in this new order, the report says that the bloc is facing “a perfect polar storm”:

“Over the past decade, the contestation of the liberal international order has increased, challenging the EU’s vision for the world. Today, these pressures are coming to a head, culminating in a triple crisis for the EU: Russia’s war against Ukraine has destroyed Europe’s cooperative security architecture; the increasing weaponization of economic interdependencies is threatening the EU’s economic model; and the European model of liberal democracy faces unprecedented internal and external contestation. Donald Trump’s re-election could intensify these crises and revive the debate about whether the EU needs to become, in the words of the French President Emmanuel Macron, a ‘third pole’ with greater autonomy.”

When it comes to security considerations internal to Europe, the report raises the fact that “political extremes – especially the far right” have grown in popularity since the early 2000s, as a concern. “This trend is also taking hold in the European Council and Council, where – at the time of writing – seven governments include far-right parties,” it reads.

The Munich Security Conference banned Germany’s anti-establishment parties on both the left and the right (Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW)) ahead of the event, with MSC chair Christoph Heusgen citing what he considered to be both parties’ rejection of the event’s core principle, “Peace through dialogue”.

The report says of the process of multipolarisation that “We may be living in a world where multiple orders co-exist or compete and where little is left of near-universal rules, principles, and patterns of cooperation”:

“In such a ‘multi-order’ or ‘multiplex’ world, the liberal order may not necessarily disappear. But its reach will increasingly be restricted to the West, or what is left of it. What is emerging, then, is a new system ‘characterized by plurality of power and identity,’ where several major poles pursue their own visions of order, with unique sets of rules, values, and institutions.”

Setting multipolarity on a “positive track” has to start with a process of “depolarisation,” the report concludes, whereby global cooperation between competing powers is emphasised in an effort to reduce the the potential for conflict. However, it describes the suggestion that bringing the ‘new poles’ together “will breed the type of consensus needed to create an order that works for the benefit of all” as “far from a foregone conclusion”.

Original article: Gript