Brics has become an alternative power base outside the reach of the US and its allies, and a rising counterweight to US influence globally
By William R. RHODESAND Stuart P.M. MACKINTOSH
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The year is shaping up to be one of shake-ups in global geopolitics and power. Donald Trump has assumed the US presidency for a second term with a resounding victory, after the Democrats failed in their appeal to working-class and other voters during a time of uncertainty, inflationary pressures and worries over immigration.
Trump has promised much, from tax cuts and tariffs to ending the Ukraine war, amid US trade tensions with China. Trump has replaced Pax Americana with “America first”.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has the upper hand in the war he commenced against Ukraine, winning territory at a considerable cost from an exhausted but resistant Ukrainian military. Putin, under sanctions and pressure from the United States and its allies, has shifted the geopolitical centre of gravity away from Western institutions to one that is fashioned more to his liking.
What do we mean? We see a rising, empowered and enlarged Brics grouping that could eclipse the G20 as the key forum for many states. Last October, Putin hosted the 16th summit for Brics, which has grown from a body comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and, most recently, Indonesia.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has added his considerable support to the forum’s rise. At the meeting in Kazan, Russia, he said: “We must make full use of this summit, maintain the momentum of Brics, and consider and devise our strategy to address issues that have a global impact.”
Brics has become an alternative power base for presidents Putin and Xi, one outside the reach of the US and its allies. Achieving this shift was neither inevitable nor expected by Western states. The forum is much broader and larger, potentially economically and diplomatically influential and consequential.
The attendance of UN secretary general Antonio Guterres at Kazan shows this. At the summit, Guterres urged Brics leaders to work on the global finance system, climate action, access to technology and peace, particularly in Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine and Sudan. In other words, the forum is now a useful multilateral mechanism for UN goals.
What does a rising Brics mean for geopolitics and US interests? For the Group of 20, it bodes ill. South Africa has the G20 presidency this year, but with the Trump administration showing little interest in G20 meetings, South Africa could fail to make G20 breakthroughs on climate, global rules and trade.
The US will take over the G20 presidency at the end of the year. Can we hope for US re-engagement in diplomacy? We doubt it, unless the G20 becomes a more limited, transactional gathering where Trump can claim victories, even at the expense of other leaders.
So, Brics is a rising counterweight to US influence globally. Where might we see this in effect?
Firstly, on Ukraine, Brics members show relative consensus in their support of Russia. The Trump administration will be looking for a peace deal with Ukraine. If Russia is pressured by China, India and Brazil, acting together in support of an end to the war, a deal may be possible.
Secondly, on trade, Brics leaders oppose sanctions and the rising trade barriers threatened by the US. The test is whether Brics states can delineate new trade rules and apply them to intra-Brics trade, now that the World Trade Organization is almost moribund. Can Brics do trade deals rather than issue hopeful proclamations? We must wait and see.
Thirdly, on currencies, both Russia and China want to move fast on coordination to diminish the dominance of the US dollar. Brics leaders dislike the extent to which most deals in export goods are priced and paid in US dollars. Brics states appear willing to switch to invoicing in their own currencies, and there is some evidence that has begun in bilateral payments. Brics states can accelerate this shift.
But when it comes to the proposed Brics currency, Putin’s notions appear wildly premature. Neither China, India nor Brazil want to cede national currency independence to one another. This will not change. While Trump is alarmed by the idea of a Brics currency, that is not coming to pass. But Trump is right to worry about a loss of US influence.
Looking ahead, how Trump and his team responds as Brics members coordinate and progress collectively is hard to predict. Nonetheless, the successes of Brics may mean fewer clear-cut victories for America. A multipolar Brics-energised diplomacy might begin to emerge.
Can Trump accept a diminution of US power? That will be a test of maturity and farsightedness. In balancing a rising Brics, the Trump administration should lean into more nuanced policy approaches, as well as a recognition that older Bretton Woods institutions, such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, remain useful and effective for the exertion of US influence and power.
In other words, “America first” may have to come to terms with the limits of go-it-alone zero-sum goals. US foreign policy goals should be based firmly on realism, collaboration and coordination with allies and, where possible, even competitors, including Brics leaders.
Original article: South China Morning Post
