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Ukrainians have started to believe that the war could end next year, as talk of a peace deal has increased since Trump’s election. The new US Trump administration set to take office on 20 Jan,2025. NATO countries are growing increasingly skeptical about whether the current aid to Ukraine to contain Russia will continue as Trump has been against the support to NATO and Ukraine. European officials are worried that if the Trump regime were to cut aid to Ukraine, NATO members will have to increase their military spending many folds, as it is they are facing the financial pressure.

Ukraine also faces a series of internal problems like shortage of troops, war weariness with high rate of desertions, negligible volunteers, destruction of property, particularly hospitals and energy producing infrastructure. The rising number of deaths due to the war and large emigration due to the conflict are both intensifying the country’s demographic decline and causing difficulties in many sectors of the economy.

Trump has repeatedly said he will end the Russia-Ukraine War in a day “24 hours”. “Easy said than Done”. In the case of Ukraine YES, as some of the NATO and EU members are also tired of this avoidable Russia-Ukraine war. How long can they support this War is the question on many lips? Ukrainian forces struggle to hold off Russia’s army on the battlefield and President-elect Trump seeks to broker a peace deal.

Zelensky Seeking Early Ceasefire

President Zelensky has recently signaled a greater willingness for negotiations to end the war. However, earlier Zelensky had asserted that negotiations could begin only once Moscow withdrew all its troops, but now he is emphasizing the need for long-term security rather than the immediate return of territory. A significant shift for the Ukrainian leader, who had long vowed to fight for every last inch of his country’s land. Zelensky is intelligent and clever “Understands things are going to change” under Trump.

President Putin is also prepared to meet Trump on the issue to end this near three-year Russia-Ukraine war. Only Trump can stop the war entering into the fourth year and stop further devastation of Ukraine that is the hope of One and All but How?

Last month, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a one-hour “detailed and frank” conversation with Russian President Putin, marking the first direct conversation between a Western leader and Russia in two years. Signaling European powers are seeking a way forward to end the conflict. Ukraine is now keen in pursuing a truce, given the sad history of Western security guarantees beginning with the Budapest Memorandum more than two decades ago and the West so far is not interested to offer the NATO membership.

US led West’s aim through this proxy to assist Ukraine in achieving geopolitical and strategic goal to weaken Russia has near failed. The Western aid failed to give Ukraine a military advantage or make significant progress, and only managing to sustain a war of attrition. As time passes, Western countries’ fatigue with providing aid is becoming more apparent, as military-industrial production capacities and stockpiles are increasingly stretched, and fiscal pressures rise, and public discontent grows over unnecessary expenditures and economic hardships. Having got into this Catch 22, Biden and NATO are compelled to continue to push at least till Biden is in office for another 30 days.

Ukrainian NATO Membership Logical

“From a Ukrainian perspective NATO membership is completely logical, the only security guarantee that has real value. So Zelensky will do everything to seek NATO membership. So Zelensky is moving forward wisely, hoping this soft posture of his will appeal to Trump and will ensure continued support for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, policymakers across Europe are discussing further boosting their defense spending, as NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned allies must “Shift to a Wartime Mindset” and significantly increase defense budgets to remain prepared for future threats from Russia.

“The first step we have to take is for Zelenskyy to be able to negotiate from a position of strength. And at the moment, the front line is moving westwards, not eastwards,” Rutte told reporters last week. “He doesn’t need more plans, he needs ammunition.”

With NATO membership unlikely, European allies have suggested alternatives, such as a peacekeeping force, which Zelensky has been open to. However, Ukrainian officials maintain that is not an acceptable substitute for NATO membership.

Putin’s Conditions for Peace Talks.Putin has insisted conditions for peace talks that Ukraine permanently renounce NATO membership and has demanded Ukraine grant Moscow permanent sovereignty over four regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – as well as Crimea.

Ukraine Ceasefire: At What Cost?

As of 2024, Russia occupies almost 20% of Ukraine and about 3 to 3.5 million Ukrainians are estimated to be living under occupation; since the invasion, the occupied territories lost roughly half of their population. The war has led to over six million Ukrainians fleeing the country, a plummeting birth rate, with deaths outnumbering births, an estimated 12,162 civilian deaths verified by the United Nations, but the actual figure is likely to be much higher and nearly 500,000 troops either dead (43,000) or injured.

The war has cost Ukraine around $152 billion in direct damage, an estimated $486 billion to rebuild and recover and an external financing gap of USD 85.2 billion for the period 2024-2027, according to IMF baseline estimates.

False Victories: In achieving these goals, Putin would show the world and the Russian people that he has the power to compel the West to concede. Simultaneously, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy concedes now that Ukraine will not be able to retake all the territories Russia has seized. Consequently, some offer of a security guarantee from the West and the chance to further strengthen Ukraine’s defense establishment with Western help would constitute a victory for Zelensky at this point.

The ultimate resolution of the Ukrainian crisis will still require all parties to form a comprehensive framework and international dialogue mechanism based on mutual respect for sovereignty, understanding and addressing security concerns, and mutually advancing ceasefires and negotiations. Will the UN step in or Russia-Ukraine War Ceasefire will be All in All a ‘Trump Triumph’ if it does happen.

Original article: Eurasia Review