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As the inauguration of the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump approaches, one of the most debated topics in countries modifying their security strategies within the U.S./NATO framework—particularly in the Baltic and Eastern European nations—is whether Trump will continue to protect Europe “against Russia.”

The countries expressing this new European concern most openly are Latvia, Estonia, and Finland.

In their statements, the leaders of Latvia, Estonia, and Finland emphasized the need to end the “endless debates” on how to respond to the “threat from Russia” and strengthen European defense.

This long-standing “necessity” now includes the message, “NATO cannot protect Europe from Russia without the U.S.,” due to uncertainties surrounding the Trump era.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs declared, “We are not ready. This is absolutely clear,” stressing that NATO needs to rely more on its capabilities because it is not prepared for independent defense.

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal echoed this sentiment, stating, “We must enhance our defense capabilities,” highlighting the same insufficiency.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb expressed the prevailing concern in stark terms: “We are not doing this because we fear Stockholm or London. We are doing this because we fear Moscow.”

Why Are These Countries Afraid?

The three Baltic states share borders with Russia and rank among NATO members that spend the highest percentage of their GDP on defense, after Poland. These nations are, therefore, directly positioned on the “frontline” of NATO’s actions against Russia.

Additionally, these countries host critical NATO bases.

Two of the four countries hosting NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) forces are Estonia and Latvia (the others are Poland and Lithuania).

As NATO’s newest member, Finland is reportedly set to host a potential intelligence base equipped with advanced radar systems, modern drones like the RQ-4D, and F-35 fighter jets, according to local media.

Thus, these three countries form NATO’s longest land border directly adjacent to Russia and Belarus, stretching over 2,000 kilometers from Finland’s northern tip to Latvia’s southeastern corner.

However, there is a paradox in being the spearhead of NATO’s expansion strategy. While these countries do not trust their own defense capacities against Russia, they support continued militarization, which is seen as the primary reason for the potential outbreak of a conflict with Russia.

Trump’s Call for “More Spending”

As concerns grow in the Baltic and Eastern Europe, a report by the Financial Times based on insider sources signals that the situation for Europe may worsen further.

According to the report, Donald Trump’s team will call on NATO countries to raise their military spending to 5% of GDP. The U.S. now demands “more money” for security against Russia.

This call means an increased economic burden for countries fearful of a Russian “attack.” Estonia, for instance, has already decided to cut funds allocated to social programs and increase military expenditures for 2025.

The narrative that Russia will “attack other countries” after Ukraine is being used today to justify further militarization. However, Russia’s actions will depend on factors like its wear and tear in the Ukraine war, the current international climate, and its economic strength.

For the Baltic countries and Finland, the real threat lies not only in their “forward outpost” mission justified by this narrative but also in the wave of military, societal, and economic crises it could unleash.

The fear of a “Russian attack,” combined with increased defense spending, cuts in public services, rising taxes, and growing income inequality, is likely to trigger significant waves of public discontent.

This situation has the potential to plunge not only the internal dynamics of these countries but also Europe’s political future into an uncertainty-laden chaos. The vicious cycle of economic hardships, social unrest, and political polarization could become a threat that undermines Europe’s unity as a whole.