Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su

On June 9th, Belgians are having an election bonanza.

Not only will they be heading to the ballot box to elect a new European Parliament, but a federal parliament and regional parliaments as well.

Politically, the country is divided like never before, while apathy towards—if not outright anger with—the establishment political elite mounts with each passing year, as reflected in electoral results.

A study showed that in the nation’s most recent elections in 2019, 1.3 million eligible Belgian voters (17% of the total) either did not cast a ballot or cast an invalid one.

The figure is even more striking when one keeps in mind that Belgium is one of only four EU countries where voting is mandatory.

The dozen parties in both the federal parliament and regional state structures set up across the country’s internal language borders (Dutch, French, and German), also rarely find common ground.

Traditionally, Wallonia has been far more leftist than Flanders, only adding to the difficulty of arriving at consensus on the federal level.

Following this Sunday’s elections, this is likely to be translated into a months-long gridlock as parties argue over who will govern. Belgium currently holds the world record of longest period without a government, needing 541 days in 2010-2011.

Most Flemish voters can only vote for Flemish parties, and French speakers for French-speaking parties. In Brussels, Belgians can pick and choose. A tiny German-speaking minority elects its own parliament to oversee cultural policy.

Traditional parties don’t operate nationwide and are split into Flemish and French-speaking parties, with the Marxist Workers’ Party (PVDA/PTB), which operates as one national party, being the exception to the rule.

Needless to say, to outsiders—and even to Belgians themselves—Belgium’s labyrinthine structure is fiendishly difficult to make sense of.

Indeed, some (such as Brexit leader Nigel Farage) claim, and not altogether unjustly, that it is not a country at all.

While rumors of Belgian’s coming ‘death’ might have been greatly exaggerated in recent years, polls do suggest it is not a far-off possibility, as two Flemish-nationalist parties are set to win over a majority of voters in the northern Dutch-speaking half of the country, Flanders.

Two Flemish-nationalist visions 

The secessionist Vlaams Belang is expected to win 25.8% of Flemish votes, making it the largest party in the country. The right-wing Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (N-VA), could gain 21%. The socialist Vooruit comes third with 15.6%.

However, the number of undecided voters (estimated to be 21%) could still have a significant impact on Sunday’s results.

Vlaams Belang has made no bones about wanting to split the country in coming years, starting with a unilateral “declaration of sovereignty” backed by a Flemish majority, should a regional government be formed.

As a counter to that, N-VA, whose chairman Bart de Wever has unequivocally excluded cooperating with Vlaams Belang on either the regional or federal level, instead wants to reform the federal model into a confederal one, moving all power to the regional level.

Under that model, Flanders and French-speaking Wallonia will together determine in what areas they still want to cooperate at the confederal level in order to free the country from “stagnation and gridlock.” The region of Brussels and the German-speaking community would get their own separate status.

Some French-speaking parties are warming to the N-VA’s idea of reforming the state but abhor splitting up the country—as the by far most economically disadvantaged region, Wallonia is heavily reliant on Flemish tax money to prop it up.

For recent comments in which Bart de Wever appeared satisfied with confederalism, while showing no real interest in achieving what should be the true goal of complete Flemish independence, Vlaams Belang chairman Tom van Grieken accused the N-VA chairman of having become the “best propagandist for the Belgian system.”

Even though these two parties could reach a majority in the Flemish regional parliament, any move towards that confederalist model would have to be negotiated with other parties, which of course entails making the Francophone ones part of the process.

In Wallonia and Brussels, a recent poll by public broadcaster RTBF put the Francophone Socialist Party PS neck and neck with the center-right liberal Mouvement Reformateur, both at around 22% of the votes. The marxist PTB is polling in third place.

In Flanders, migration is the top concern, research shows, with 22% of Flemish people saying it is the “biggest problem.” It is little surprise then that Vlaams Belang, which calls for a complete closure of the borders until the migrant issue is brought under control, performs so well.

In Brussels and Wallonia, purchasing power is top of mind, while in Flanders, it’s second on the list—perhaps not coincidentally, Vlaams Belang has picked it as one of its top priorities.

Whoever is largest does not lead

A sad hallmark of Belgian politics is that the largest party tends not to occupy a leadership role, nor deliver ministers.

Case in point: current Prime Minister Alexander De Croo is a Flemish liberal (Open VLD) from what is only the seventh-largest block of votes in the federal parliament. Recent polls show his party will barely reach 7% of the votes this Sunday.

De Croo’s ‘Vivaldi coalition’ government was created in October 2020 and named after the composer’s The Four Seasons to reflects the coalition parties’ seasonal colors—blue (winter) for the liberals, green (spring) for the greens, red (summer) for the social democrats, orange (autumn) for the Christian democrats.

Even though it was the largest Flemish party at the time, the N-VA was not represented in that coalition which, as a result, did not comprise a Flemish majority, casting serious doubt on its democratic legitimacy.

Becoming prime minister of Belgium is then more about getting the support of rival political leaders than it is about being Belgium’s biggest party—a political phenomenon better known as particracy.

While on the basis of popular support, the nationalist Vlaams Belang by rights should deliver Belgium’s new PM after June 9th, it is still prevented from participating in government because of the cordon sanitaire—a long-standing agreement between political parties that they would not cooperate with the party because of its ‘extreme’ positions on issues such as immigration and integration.

Often used pejoratively, particracy is a form of government in which the political parties are the primary basis of rule rather than citizens or individual politicians. The influence of the party chairman and the party bureau outweighs that of the elected members among themselves. This may be reflected in group discipline, where, in practice, all elected members belonging to the same party in parliament vote unanimously on all issues.

For the next prime minister, a ‘safe’ choice should be expected. One could imagine potential coalition partners agreeing on someone with experience, preferably close to the center, with the probability that the N-VA—since that might assuage pressure coming from the Flemish—could be put in the role of kingmaker.

Original article: The European Conservative