I have written quite a bit in recent weeks about Britain and the European Union. Well, you might well say “enough already” but there has been a new development in the form of a by-election in Eastleigh which has added a new factor, the UK Independent Party, UKip for short.

This is another reason to look again at the UK which refuses to be a team player as it is because it won’t enter the Euro Zone and won’t pick up it share of bail-outs.

This latter situation is, in itself, a concern that the EU and especially Germany and to a lesser extent France will sooner or later lose patience over. As we know from recent history, the UK was scarcely brought in with loving, open arms, especially by France whose principal concern was the UK might upset the sweetheart deal France had with the union over Agricultural subsidies – and, surprise! surprise! This has indeed upset British farmers.

Rather like Samuel Johnson musing about second marriages – it’s a triumph of hope over experience. As I have pointed out in the past, one ignores the wisdom of Winston Churchill at considerable peril. He understood the tremendous pull America and the Commonwealth exert over British Hearts and more importantly, the lessons Britain learned in two World Wars, namely where when push comes to shove America and the Commonwealth is the side Britain’s bread is buttered. In fact all seem to ignore the fact that freer trade by the UK with Canada and the US is right now under serious negotiation.

Many will remember Sir Humphrey in “Yes Prime Minister” where he spoke of polls and how the question begets the answer. In 1975, for example, the British were asked  Do you think the UK should stay in the European Community (Common Market)?

As opposed to what? What if the people were asked “Do think the UK should stay in the EU or enter free trade talks with America? Or, do you think the UK should stay in the European Union if we must surrender our pound to a European currency?

Supporters of the EU call those who aren't “little Englanders’ but I would submit that membership in that group varies considerably from time to time and issue to issue. What Britain has shown since it came into the Common Market, now the EU, on January 1, 1973 is an unwillingness to throw in its lot with Europe when it doesn’t suit them; whether its social policy or fiscal union, Britain has said “no thanks”.

Does that mean the public will say “NO” to a referendum held in 2017 or before? Only a fool would forget that in politics 6 weeks is a long time and 6 months an eternity. There is, however, a huge difference between the next election in 2015 and the one in 2010.

In 2010 there was a force, the Referendum Party, led by Sir James Goldsmith in the running. Its goal was to secure a referendum on Europe so that the people could vote to leave. Next time the election will be held with the referendum already promised so that UKip will not be campaigning to have are referendum but on the what should voters do? A very different thing.

One must be careful not to suggest that out of a single by-election which didn’t alter the power spilt in parliament means that Nigel Farange’s UKip will take the right wing voters, en masse. under its wing and sweep them to victory. Every time a third party pops up with some electoral traction the pundits seem to foresee immense changes. The likely result in 2015 will, as I see it today, give Labour the most seats with the Liberal Democrats much reduced, the Tories in opposition and the UKid party holding a handful of seats. I warn you, however, you can draw numbers out of a hat with the same confidence as I am in my predictions about 2015.

There is another “gut” issue for the 2015 election which is not a politically correct subject – immigration. In a recent poll, nearly 70% voted against further immigration yet under the EU the UK has no option to refuse. Mr. Farage has been very vocal on this issue, needless to say in opposition. This is a hot political item going back to Enoch Powell’s “rivers of Blood” speech in 1968 (he never quite used those words but close enough) which many say was responsible for the Tories surprise win in 1970.

Let’s see where we stand. With a 2015 election we have Tories running on a previously promised referendum on staying or not in the EU. We have a Labour Party saying “not just now” but wait until the election – which is the position of The Lib-Dems who are facing a squeeze between the Tories and Labour' and the UKip saying “we want out”.

The Prime Minister, David Cameron, will likely try to run on the point that he favours a referendum but the outcome is in the hands of the people. UKip will appeal to the right with the usual issues but will also say, “keep Britain British and stop immigration and, while we’re at it, let’s get rid of that threat once and for all by eliminating the source.

The Labour Party will be badly split as it always has on the issue of Europe and will likely adapt the position of Canadian prime minister, Mackenzie King in World War II, who pledged “conscription if necessary but not necessarily conscription”. 

What will happen in 2017 when the Referendum is held? It might not be held if the Labour Party with or without the Liberal-Democrats as partners opt not to have a referendum which, in my view, will not be good news to supporters of the EU because it will make the entire issue a white hot screaming issue in the UK until a vote can be held. If the Conservatives form a government, they will hold the referendum as promised and adopt a hands-off approach.

What if the Tories win the most seats but not enough to govern – will they take UKip in as coalition partners? If they do that, it will be difficult for them to remain indifferent as to the outcome of a referendum.

My strong feeling is that no future government would dare refuse a referendum to the British. In fact my guess is that even supporters of the EU will want to clear the air. There is, I regret to say, another lurking gremlin. What if Scotland opts to secede in 2015, in fact does secedes and remains, in its new state, part of the EU?

I choose to put my head under the blankets for that one and wait and see. What we do know here and now is that whether or not Britain stays in the European Union is, in basketball talk, no slam dunk! It’s too far ahead with too many possibilities including perhaps many we can’t presently foresee, to predict. Which never, of course, stops pundits like me predicting away to our hearts' content! 

I have written quite a bit in recent weeks about Britain and the European Union. Well, you might well say “enough already” but there has been a new development in the form of a by-election in Eastleigh which has added a new factor, the UK Independent Party, UKip for short.

This is another reason to look again at the UK which refuses to be a team player as it is because it won’t enter the Euro Zone and won’t pick up it share of bail-outs.

This latter situation is, in itself, a concern that the EU and especially Germany and to a lesser extent France will sooner or later lose patience over. As we know from recent history, the UK was scarcely brought in with loving, open arms, especially by France whose principal concern was the UK might upset the sweetheart deal France had with the union over Agricultural subsidies – and, surprise! surprise! This has indeed upset British farmers.

Rather like Samuel Johnson musing about second marriages – it’s a triumph of hope over experience. As I have pointed out in the past, one ignores the wisdom of Winston Churchill at considerable peril. He understood the tremendous pull America and the Commonwealth exert over British Hearts and more importantly, the lessons Britain learned in two World Wars, namely where when push comes to shove America and the Commonwealth is the side Britain’s bread is buttered. In fact all seem to ignore the fact that freer trade by the UK with Canada and the US is right now under serious negotiation.

Many will remember Sir Humphrey in “Yes Prime Minister” where he spoke of polls and how the question begets the answer. In 1975, for example, the British were asked  Do you think the UK should stay in the European Community (Common Market)?

As opposed to what? What if the people were asked “Do think the UK should stay in the EU or enter free trade talks with America? Or, do you think the UK should stay in the European Union if we must surrender our pound to a European currency?

Supporters of the EU call those who aren't “little Englanders’ but I would submit that membership in that group varies considerably from time to time and issue to issue. What Britain has shown since it came into the Common Market, now the EU, on January 1, 1973 is an unwillingness to throw in its lot with Europe when it doesn’t suit them; whether its social policy or fiscal union, Britain has said “no thanks”.

Does that mean the public will say “NO” to a referendum held in 2017 or before? Only a fool would forget that in politics 6 weeks is a long time and 6 months an eternity. There is, however, a huge difference between the next election in 2015 and the one in 2010.

In 2010 there was a force, the Referendum Party, led by Sir James Goldsmith in the running. Its goal was to secure a referendum on Europe so that the people could vote to leave. Next time the election will be held with the referendum already promised so that UKip will not be campaigning to have are referendum but on the what should voters do? A very different thing.

One must be careful not to suggest that out of a single by-election which didn’t alter the power spilt in parliament means that Nigel Farange’s UKip will take the right wing voters, en masse. under its wing and sweep them to victory. Every time a third party pops up with some electoral traction the pundits seem to foresee immense changes. The likely result in 2015 will, as I see it today, give Labour the most seats with the Liberal Democrats much reduced, the Tories in opposition and the UKid party holding a handful of seats. I warn you, however, you can draw numbers out of a hat with the same confidence as I am in my predictions about 2015.

There is another “gut” issue for the 2015 election which is not a politically correct subject – immigration. In a recent poll, nearly 70% voted against further immigration yet under the EU the UK has no option to refuse. Mr. Farage has been very vocal on this issue, needless to say in opposition. This is a hot political item going back to Enoch Powell’s “rivers of Blood” speech in 1968 (he never quite used those words but close enough) which many say was responsible for the Tories surprise win in 1970.

Let’s see where we stand. With a 2015 election we have Tories running on a previously promised referendum on staying or not in the EU. We have a Labour Party saying “not just now” but wait until the election – which is the position of The Lib-Dems who are facing a squeeze between the Tories and Labour' and the UKip saying “we want out”.

The Prime Minister, David Cameron, will likely try to run on the point that he favours a referendum but the outcome is in the hands of the people. UKip will appeal to the right with the usual issues but will also say, “keep Britain British and stop immigration and, while we’re at it, let’s get rid of that threat once and for all by eliminating the source.

The Labour Party will be badly split as it always has on the issue of Europe and will likely adapt the position of Canadian prime minister, Mackenzie King in World War II, who pledged “conscription if necessary but not necessarily conscription”. 

What will happen in 2017 when the Referendum is held? It might not be held if the Labour Party with or without the Liberal-Democrats as partners opt not to have a referendum which, in my view, will not be good news to supporters of the EU because it will make the entire issue a white hot screaming issue in the UK until a vote can be held. If the Conservatives form a government, they will hold the referendum as promised and adopt a hands-off approach.

What if the Tories win the most seats but not enough to govern – will they take UKip in as coalition partners? If they do that, it will be difficult for them to remain indifferent as to the outcome of a referendum.

My strong feeling is that no future government would dare refuse a referendum to the British. In fact my guess is that even supporters of the EU will want to clear the air. There is, I regret to say, another lurking gremlin. What if Scotland opts to secede in 2015, in fact does secedes and remains, in its new state, part of the EU?

I choose to put my head under the blankets for that one and wait and see. What we do know here and now is that whether or not Britain stays in the European Union is, in basketball talk, no slam dunk! It’s too far ahead with too many possibilities including perhaps many we can’t presently foresee, to predict. Which never, of course, stops pundits like me predicting away to our hearts' content!