In the XXI century the world is not only rapidly becoming a global whole but is also searching for new ways to unify the national states that often fail to face the challenges of the modern age alone. After the dismemberment of the USSR and the end of Cold War political multipolarity took shape on the one hand, while financial systems displayed a trend to shaping a unipolar pattern on the other.
There is a contradiction between many states as power centers and actually the only still existing center of global emission – the US Federal Reserve System. The divergence of interests spurs a fight making it evolve into a “hot” phase not because the actors of international drama want it but rather because they don’t have any other way out in the short run. The main reason here is not so much a fight for global resources or political influence but rather the printing press. That’s why the USA, the home country of the Federal Reserve System, is doomed to lose more and more allies as time goes by.
Being acquainted with the situation, the American political and business circles do everything they can to expedite the development of separate stand offs in various regions of the world into the phase of combat actions in order to weaken potential adversaries and divert the attention of those who still tackle tactical missions of different character. This way the USA gains time, something that is working against it now. There are new centers of influence being shaped and they are close to bringing into life the idea of creating their own emission tools (the European Union will have to convert its Central Bank into the one, otherwise the euro will sink into oblivion). Some are making first strides to make the idea come true (Russia and China are aggressively pursuing the goal of switching to trade in rubles and yuans, the BRICS members have taken a decision to establish a joint bank).
The appearance of the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan and prospects for its transformation into the Eurasian Union make the creation of independent emission center an issue on the agenda because the goal is the integration of economic and financial systems.
There is one and a half of independent emission centers in the world at present: the dollar and the euro (the last one cannot be called a fully independent currency).
Correspondingly, the main US export commodity is not services or hydrocarbons, but rather dollars and financial obligations. It makes no sense for the USA to sell services and goods and have any relation to real economy. It sells dollars that can buy all other things.
Actually, the very notion of independent banks’ “gold and currency reserves” confirms the fact that no country is able to conduct an independent financial policy because it doesn’t define the cost of its currency.
If the goal of possible unification of post Soviet states is the creation of their own emission center and independent foreign policy supported by funds and military might, then it should be admitted that creation of economic and military interstate structures is impossible without political integration. History has a lot of examples of chain reaction along the lines of: one policy – one economy – one financial system. But there is no single example of a unified financial system creating a unified economy, and then common foreign policy.
Take the example of euro. The European Coal and Steel Community became a basis for economic first, then political integration and only then it led to the joint currency (the euro). Until now Europe doesn’t know what to do with it. The absence of one center for taking political decisions, like in the USA, stands in the way of overcoming the crisis. It’s just unreal in the case of 27 entities, with everyone pursuing its interests and one emission center each of them trying to influence. The reason making Greece (and not only) try to abandon the euro and go back to its own currency – is the absence of possibility to influence emission to solve (as they see it) the problems caused by the crisis.
Moreover, realizing the threat of EU disintegration, British prime-minister David Cameron has said recently that any country leaving the eurozone may entail significant rise of risks and lead to the collapse of currency block. British prime-minister thinks the way out is to create a full scale budgetary and political union inside the eurozone as rapidly as could be.
So creation of one financial system is impossible without a joint center of taking political decisions and common budgetary space. It’s possible only in a new empire (federation/confederation pattern is not excluded). It’s either integration presupposes creation of a new empire (federation/confederation) or it is doomed from the very start. An ideological base is needed for the purpose. The USSR had the idea of “building communism in the whole world”. The USA has the idea of building neoliberal world it’s going to lead etc. Without it no expansion is possible (the Eurasian Union will inevitably run against the European Union and have to find new space for expansion in Asia, possibly Iran, that, no matter an Islamic country, belongs to the same Indo-European culture as Russia…), as well as no elites can get united and come up with fathomable justification of the integrational process.
There is another problem that cannot be solved without a joint political center. Will the financial system be created along the Federal Reserve System lines? If so, how will it be controlled? No way military aspects can be ignored. Otherwise how can a sovereign right to have one’s own currency be defended? The US Federal Reserve System exists because it is defended by the US armed forces. Russia, Ukraine and Belarus have no joint military. But it’s an indispensable element of the system.
The economic issues are defined by politics. If Russian ruble can at least support its real cost by primary products, neither Belarus, Kazakhstan nor Ukraine can do the same. Neither can they support it by production or working forces (for comparison China’s and India’s working forces can support their currencies' parity costs). No getting ahead is possible here without finding solution to political issues.
The economic integration itself has sense only at the level of state capitalism for this is the century of transnational corporations. How can their interests be taken into account in the conditions of mutual integration without a political mechanism of national and cooperative interests’ protection?
Only possible creation of new political system (as I see it, an imperial system is the most rational one because federations and confederations take decisions too slowly) can limit the appetite of transnational corporations. Otherwise, the issue of new emission centers or new currencies can be lifted from the agenda at all after some time because new corporate currencies will appear – out of the framework of national states. It’s a realistic prospect for the not so distant future.
