The developments in the Indian Ocean archipelago nation, Maldives in past few days bring to picture the turmoil, accompanied by the tussles between different ideological elements in this tiny Muslim majority nation, comprising of about 1200 islands. In 2008, the opposition led by Mohamed Nasheed drove the 30-year old authoritarian rule of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, and promised to run the country on the basis of democratic values. Nasheed also emerged as a strong advocate to develop mechanisms to tackle climate change, as this nation will likely be submerged under water within a span of decades if climate change persists in the present rate. While resigning from the post of president, allegedly under pressure from the army and police, Nasheed argued that he preferred to resign from power instead of risking to bring the country to the brink of violence and instability. The United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon was quick enough in conveying the new president, Mohammed Waheed Hassan the concerns of international community and his appeal to the new administration to work for peace and stability.

The location of this archipelago nation at the crisscross of the Indian Ocean vaults Maldives to the international centre stage. Its likely submergence under water in few decades has created concerned in the minds of its leaders, and particularly Nasheed played a major role in visiting neighbouring countries including India and climate change conferences to highlight the issue. Nasheed famously conducted a cabinet meeting under sea in 2009 to showcase international community the concerns of the nation and its fate in future. Maldives’ membership of South Asian Association of Region Cooperation and its equations with South Asian countries too have added to its political posturing in the region. The recent controversy leading to resignation of President Nasheed, whether under duress or not, cannot be totally delinked from his policies. The destruction of a heritage statue in the Addu city of the country made by Pakistan was targeted by rogue elements recently, and Nasheed’s steps to nab them and bring them to justice have further polarized the politics of the country. The opposition claims that Nasheed has become too fast in reforming the country and society. Behind the scene, there appears to be a tussle between forces of radicalism and moderation in this tiny nation, the population of which counts a little more than 300,000.

Besides the incident of defacing the heritage statue, some other developments might have contributed to the recent turmoil. Nasheed allowed forces from Israel to land in the soil of Maldives which might not have gone well with some of the opposition leaders in the country. There are reports that the society has been moving though in a slow pace towards radicalization with funding from radical organizations from abroad. In recent years debates over religion have acquired centre stage in this Sunni Muslim majority nation, where practicing any other faith is forbidden. Nasheed was criticized by the opponents as being too modern and progressive. His government, which emerged as a vehicle of peace and stability against the decades old authoritarian rule of Gayoom, found itself in the brink of collapse within four years after coming to power.

If one analyzes the political developments in South Asian countries, of which Maldives is a member, a tendency towards overthrow of popular regimes can be easily discerned. Many of the nations in this political spectrum in the past have witnessed coups, whether bloody or bloodless. Some of the nations in the region still exhibit tendencies towards overthrow of elected regimes through coups. Bangladesh army revealed last month that it foiled a coup attempt to dislodge Hashina government from power. Pakistan’s political class and army handled the recent developments, in which the army and civilian governments locked horns over some contentious issues, with much maturity despite fears of an army coup. Both Pakistan and Bangladesh have witnessed army coups in recent pasts. The development in Maldives, in which the police supposed to be an ideologically neutral state apparatus, crowded the streets demanding pro-Gayoom slogans and anti-Nasheed slogans further indicate the fragile nature of politics in the region. President Nasheed resigned on 7 February 2012, with his deputy Waheed a vocal opponent of some of Nasheed’s recent policies, succeeding him. In these fast changing events, it is yet difficult to find out what role exactly the army played towards the resignation of Nasheed, but the fact remains that with miniscule police protests the situation could not have turned so fast and grave, compelling the president to resign. There are reports that the army pressured the president to resign. The outgoing president in his televised address to the nation on the same day pointed out that there were two options before him: either to resign or to use ruthless force to silence the opponents. He preferred the latter. 

The immediate trigger behind the recent turmoil in Maldives was the arrest order given by Nasheed to arrest Criminal Court Chief Justice Abdulla Mohamed, who allegedly refused to proceed against the corrupt leaders. The arrest of Abdullah three weeks back gradually snowballed into a nationwide turmoil. Vice President Waheed in his twitter criticized this policy of his boss. The opposition leaders used the media and also later stormed and occupied national television MNBC and renamed it TV Maldives, the name of the Gayoom era, and provoked the supporters of Gayoom in armed forces and police to protest against the arrest. The 6th of February witnessed violent protests in the streets of Male and clashes between the supporters and opponents of Nasheed, resulting in injuries of people. The army spokesperson Col. Abdul Raheem Abdul Latheef told the press that the president (Nasheed) ‘on his own initiative came to headquarters for advice,’ and resigned on the advice of army. However, this has been interpreted by the supporters of Nasheed that he was house arrested and pressured by army to resign. Nasheed’s brother Nazim Sattar said, “But it was a coup. The police went against the state… and at least part of the military is backing the Opposition.”

As the importance of Indian Ocean grows with major dynamics of international politics shifting to Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean in coming years, the strategic location and importance of Maldives in Indian Ocean and not far from many shipping routes will certainly grow in recent years. While the regional powers like India announcing without delay its support to the new regime in this archipelago nation, other powers will certainly evince interest in this new regime. As present this nascent democratic nation, known for its beautiful tourist places, passes through a turbulent phase in its current history. The uncertain situation is well explained by the Maldives Foreign Minister Ahmed Naseem, who said, “All the members are concerned about the current situation in the Government. I don't think members are very happy with the situation, so let's see what happens next.”